December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Ohiobuckeye45]

3 minutes ago, cloudy_jake said:

6 days of model mayhem! When does the energy for the storm hit the coast and get sampled? 

12z ish Tuesday

[cperry29]

NAVGEM track would suggest something like the GFS would be correct. NAV is typically the most progressive, this run it rides up the coast. No clue if it means anything or not. Maybe Bernie is right, there’s too many models. 🙂

[cloudy_jake]

2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

12z ish Tuesday

Thanks! So we have 4 whole days before this thing even gets sampled. I can't wait to see what unfolds if we get snow or not it's going to be brutally cold I can't wait to see how low the wind-chill and temps get on my weather station. 😃

[RobB]

 

[Pros3lyte]

10 hours ago, cperry29 said:

NAVGEM track would suggest something like the GFS would be correct. NAV is typically the most progressive, this run it rides up the coast. No clue if it means anything or not. Maybe Bernie is right, there’s too many models. 🙂

 

[RobB]

[RobB]

Quote

Wpc extended latest disco 

Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

218 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Dec 19 2022 - 12Z Fri Dec 23 2022

***Bitterly cold temperatures likely to settle over the northern Plains for much of next week, spreading south and east after Wednesday***

***Potential for a significant winter storm over the East late in the week***

 

..Synoptic Overview... Expect a significant pattern change to evolve across much of the continental U.S. next week as a pronounced upper trough digs into the eastern half of the nation, accompanied by an impressive arctic airmass settling southward across the Plains and then advecting eastward, with widespread subzero temperatures likely for the north-central states. This is mainly in response to a building West Coast upper ridge (+PNA pattern) and a negative arctic oscillation (-AO pattern) that allows arctic airmasses to drop southward from Canada. Most guidance suggests that the amplifying trough may support strong surface development after midweek, producing areas of heavy rain and/or snow along with strong wind. Details of this evolution will depend on the relative emphasis of features in the northern and southern streams and how/when they may interact. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Over the past several days the guidance has had difficulty in resolving important details for flow across areas from northwestern North America and the northeastern Pacific through southern Canada and the lower 48. This originates from the typically low predictability for flow downstream from a closed upper high such as the one expected northwest of Alaska by the start of the medium range period. Even in the new 12Z guidance, there is pronounced spread for leading energy tracking across southern Canada and the northern tier U.S. (GFS/GEFS deepest/southward with the southern Canada upper low and most amplified with the trough to its south) and then the shape of upstream flow. UKMET runs thus far have been the most amplified with broad troughing that passes through the West, but now the 12Z CMC/ECMWF have adjusted away from consensus toward more western-central U.S. trough amplification Wednesday-Thursday as well (just a little east of the UKMET). Latest GFS runs are somewhat between established consensus and the western extremes. These differences lead into the significant spread for where potentially deep low pressure may develop/consolidate late in the week. GFS runs dig the strongest bundle of northern stream energy well into the Southeast by early Friday, leading to farther south/later development (and more Mid-Atlantic snow threat). In contrast, the new 12Z CMC/ECMWF evolution leads to a deep upper low over the Michigan/Ohio/Indiana region and a strong Midwest/Great Lakes surface low. This would produce the greatest snow threat much farther west while sweeping a strong cold front (with more liquid precipitation) over the East. Other alternatives include prior ECMWF runs that emphasized a leading coastal wave that merged with the approaching Great Lakes system. Meanwhile, ECens/CMCens means have been quite consistent in positioning an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes as of early Friday. A lagged average of operational ECMWF runs has tracked the upper low just a bit south of those means. GEFS means have been waffling more, at times keeping the upper low farther north though this is partially just due to being about 12 hours slower with overall development.Even among the preferred more consistent ECMWF/ECens/CMCens cluster (adding the 00Z CMC operational as well), there is meaningful spread for whether the main surface low takes a coastal or more inland track--related to the uncertainty of relative emphasis of the system reaching the Great Lakes and potential leading wave near the East Coast. A blend emphasizing that past couple ECMWF runs, the 00Z ECMWF mean, and 00Z CMC best accounted for the most stable guidance available through the 06Z cycle. new 12Z runs suggest that the "most likely" scenario could well change, depending on how the remainder of the 12Z ensemble suite turns out.

 

...Weather/Hazard Highlights... The main weather story that will make weather headlines next week will be the massive expanse of frigid temperatures from Montana/Northern Plains to the Midwest and then farther south and east by next Thursday-Friday. A couple of reinforcing cold fronts will usher in the coldest air of the season by a considerable margin with the expectation of widespread subzero readings for overnight lows from the Northern Rockies to the central/northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, with some lows approaching -30 degrees across portions of Montana and North Dakota. Although the frigid airmass will modify as it reaches the Ohio Valley and Mid-South, it will still be quite cold with widespread 0s and 10s for overnight lows by the end of the week, and this very cold weather is expected to have some staying power as the Climate Prediction Center outlook indicates high probabilities of below average temperatures persisting over much of the eastern half of the country for the week beyond next Friday. As cold as it will likely be, it will be difficult to challenge daily record lows/cold highs due to this event overlapping with portions of the historic 1983 and 1989 cold waves. At the very least portions of the East may end up seeing the coldest temperatures for any December since 2017. As for the potential storm affecting the eastern U.S. late next week, the most common theme in the current guidance is that the strong upper trough amplification and potentially deep upper low would produce a vigorous surface system and a broad area of strong winds. Beyond that, a potential storm track anywhere between the Great Lakes and East Coast make it very difficult to outline where the heaviest snow is most likely. The composite of ensemble-based guidance and models before arrival of the 12Z runs highlighted the central Appalachians/northern Mid-Atlantic into New England as having the highest probability of significant snowfall, corresponding to a near-coastal surface low track. However if trends end up going somewhat farther westward, then the greatest snow threat could shift as far back as the Midwest with more liquid precipitation farther east along a strong cold front. Continue to monitor forecasts for updated information as guidance hopefully better resolves this development in coming runs. Elsewhere, a shortwave tracking near the Gulf Coast along with an associated frontal wave over the northern Gulf of Mexico could produce a period of enhanced rainfall across portions of southern Texas and Louisiana on Monday, and then into Florida on Tuesday. The Northwest should see multiple episodes of rain and higher elevation snow with highest totals over favored terrain. Confidence is moderate at best for day-to-day details regarding amounts and coverage given the dependence on exact shape of the upper flow over the region. The gradual warming trend over the West as upper ridging builds toward the coast should lead to slowly rising snow levels with time. Rausch/Hamrick

 

[cperry29]

14 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

https://media0.giphy.com/media/DCdCOfYfs1jqg/200.gif

apparently the GIF tool doesn't work....


 

Yeah, Navy site wouldn’t let me save the loop of the run. 

[NeXrad]

2 hours ago, Mulaman984 said:

@Ohiobuckeye45 Bernie is live right now. Thank you @RobB  He’ll pin his video for replay. He just said verbatim he believes this is an apps runner with main impacts in the OHV/interior NE. 

went to analysis on the 12z data 

he seemed to be on the same track as last nights video if he is still talking like that come monday...watch out!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

 

 

 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[easton229]

Did anyone have the Kuchera snow map from that Euro run?

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[cperry29]

He’s right with the shifting east and west. 
 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

13 minutes ago, easton229 said:

Did anyone have the Kuchera snow map from that Euro run?

 

subtract top from bottom

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[ClicheVortex2014]

Something really crazy about this system here... the difference 6 hours makes.

Thursday 6z... mslp for Amarillo is probably around 1011mb. Cold front is moving into SE CO.

 

SIX HOURS LATER, the cold front is pushing into SW TX(!!) and the pressure here in Amarillo goes up to ~1031mb. That's a 20mb pressure rise in 6 hours. An average change of about 3.3mb/hour.

Not to mention sustained winds are in the mid-30's on a widespread scale

Edited December 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Ohiobuckeye45]

EPS 

[Mulaman984]

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

new for 2022, panel view of EPS accum snow 🤩

An alarming amount of this for is reliant on post frontal snow and/or lake effect. Not something to hang your hat on but a couple members have actual primary low snowfall around here

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[RobB]

 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Something really crazy about this system here... the difference 6 hours makes.

Thursday 6z... mslp for Amarillo is probably around 1011mb. Cold front is moving into SE CO.

 

SIX HOURS LATER, the cold front is pushing into SW TX(!!) and the pressure here in Amarillo goes up to ~1031mb. That's a 20mb pressure rise in 6 hours. An average change of about 3.3mb/hour.

Not to mention sustained winds are in the mid-30's on a widespread scale

The Blue Norther is coming!

[junior]

18z ICON 

[Pghsnow]

ICON improved

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Pghsnow said:

ICON improved

Here comes the Arctic Cannon!

[Mulaman984]