December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

Snowing in Paragon.

[snowlover2]

1 minute ago, Mulaman984 said:

 

Disco.

Quote

   Mesoscale Discussion 2065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

   Areas affected...Far eastern Illinois into Indiana...western
   Kentucky...far southern Michigan...and far western Ohio

   Concerning...Snow Squall 

   Valid 222139Z - 230145Z

   SUMMARY...The potential for brief/localized snow squalls will shift
   into Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and western Ohio through the
   evening hours as a strong cold front continues to push east.

   DISCUSSION...A strong cold front continues to push east across IN
   based on latest surface observations, and a broad region of
   post-frontal light to moderate snowfall remains evident from Lake
   Michigan southward into northern AR. Web cams and surface
   observations show pockets of reduced visibility down to 1/2 to 1/4
   mile where moderate snowfall is coincident with 20-25 knot winds
   (gusting to 30-35 knots) across eastern IL. These winds are slightly
    stronger (around 5 knots on average) than depicted by latest
   guidance, and are expected to spread east into IN, parts of KY, and
   western OH behind the surface front through 02 UTC. Surface pressure
   falls in the absence of a strong warm advection regime across the
   Great Lakes region hint that synoptic ascent is increasing as the
   upper jet noses into the lower MS River Valley. Consequently,
   post-frontal precipitation will likely increase as well over the
   next several hours. 

   The combination of gusty surface winds and pockets of moderate
   snowfall will maintain the potential for brief, sporadic snow
   squalls with reduced visibility down to 1/4 mile. Snow squalls may
   be more impactful across parts of far northwest KY into central IN
   where light rainfall ahead of the cold front followed by a rapid
   onset of freezing temperatures may result in flash freezing
   coincident with the brief snow squall conditions.

   ..Moore.. 12/22/2022

 

 

[Grace]

The snow has officially started here. Big flakes & moderate. Went from light rain to this.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Grace

[Pghsnow]

2 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

But it sure out performed the other models the last 36hrs. 

Is that sarcasm...?

[Hiramite]

4 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

If I do lose power, what are some things I should have handy? Currently charging portable chargers. Have thermal blanket. Anything I should grab to have handy? 

A plan B to go stay somewhere else?  Without a source of heat, I don't know long you'll be able to last in the house in these conditions.  If you live in "the City", restoring your power should be a higher priority than the us country folk, so you have that going for you.

[BuckeyeGal]

Just now, Hiramite said:

A plan B to go stay somewhere else?  Without a source of heat, I don't know long you'll be able to last in the house in these conditions.  If you live in "the City", restoring your power should be a higher priority than the us country folk, so you have that going for you.

Hoping that not everyone I know in the city loses power. And that we don't go to Level 3 snow emergencies. Wheee!

[Sentinel]

2 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

If I do lose power, what are some things I should have handy? Currently charging portable chargers. Have thermal blanket. Anything I should grab to have handy? 

And you did not tag me because?????? Tsk Tsk 

Anyway...

1) Coats

2) Water. If no Portable, clean and fill the bathtub

3) Know where flashlights are and ensure fresh batteries. 

4) Know where your Keys are and have the cars filled... if possible. 

 

[BuckeyeGal]

Just now, Uscg Ast said:

And you did not tag me because?????? Tsk Tsk 

Anyway...

1) Coats

2) Water. If no Portable, clean and fill the bathtub

3) Know where flashlights are and ensure fresh batteries. 

4) Know where your Keys are and have the cars filled... if possible. 

 

Because you're busy. And thank you. 😄

[ClicheVortex2014]

16 minutes ago, RobB said:

I absolutely can see where we do NOT reach defined blizzard conditions but blowing snow will definitely occur along with drifting.

I’m not speaking for them or anyone, but in my opinion I think the larger scale conditions isn’t expected to be blizzard worthy, but there may be brief patches where winds briefly gust higher into what would be blizzard conditions with heavier snow bands. Especially if any snow squalls occur. But synoptic winds don’t appear to be strong enough for blizzard warnings

[Sentinel]

Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I’m not speaking for them or anyone, but in my opinion I think the larger scale conditions isn’t expected to be blizzard worthy, but there may be brief patches where winds briefly gust higher into what would be blizzard conditions with heavier snow bands. Especially if any snow squalls occur. But synoptic winds don’t appear to be strong enough for blizzard warnings

TBH, it is actually rather difficult to reach blizzard criteria. 

 

[Ingyball]

We'll we have a beautiful day to end all the chaos of this morning. I've had enough winter this year, I think. Bring on the rain!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ingyball]

Just now, Uscg Ast said:

TBH, it is actually rather difficult to reach blizzard criteria. 

 

There's a reason for that. Last thing we want is for people to not take blizzard warnings seriously. I think the snow squall warnings are a great middle ground.

[Grace]

2 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

Is that sarcasm...?

Nope. Made RGEM, GGEM, UKMET look like a joke. Only model I recall showing heaviest snow axis anywhere near what short-range models came around to today...besides Euro & it was on it a run before Euro. 

[Central Illinois]

currently 0 here calling for -10 tonight winds really picking up

[easton229]

Pretty big scale back for the thumb area from DTX. Really hope we can hit the 3-4” they’re calling for. Would be a sight with those winds. 

[Ingyball]

1 minute ago, Grace said:

Nope. Made RGEM, GGEM, UKMET look like a joke. Only model I recall showing heaviest snow axis anywhere near what short-range models came around to today...besides Euro & it was on it a run before Euro. 

to be fair the GFS and all the models based on it did pretty poorly here in Kansas. The CMC/ICON did a lot better with that band that set up.

[Central Illinois]

 

[Sentinel]

2 minutes ago, Grace said:

Nope. Made RGEM, GGEM, UKMET look like a joke. Only model I recall showing heaviest snow axis anywhere near what short-range models came around to today...besides Euro & it was on it a run before Euro. 

Models - especially SR- have been atrocious. However given the complex set up and being Midwest vs EC, I am not surprised

 

[beaver56]

Surprised to see ILN with 4 to 6 for my area. 

[Grace]

5 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

to be fair the GFS and all the models based on it did pretty poorly here in Kansas. The CMC/ICON did a lot better with that band that set up.

 

I'm referring mainly how it handled it hear towards OV. Suggested further east with SLP. It did deepen it too rapidly on yesterday's runs based on what will occur now. 

ICON was pretty good. RGEM, CMC were keeping most of the snow north of the Ohio River & we've got Winter Storm Warnings in Tennessee now. They were the very last models to catch on. NAM products were bad as well. UKMET finally caught on last night on 0z run. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by Grace

[Ingyball]

Gotta hand it to Bernie though. I think his original snow map is gonna end up looking pretty good lol.

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Changing over now

[RobB]

Snowing in Indy

[Indygirl]

Literally just turned to snow!

Hamilton county Indiana just north of Indy. It was in blink of an eye!

 

(Great. I’m running a low fever now , too. Might be a low level influenza A.

What I was told at minute clinic today. Praying we keep power!!) 

[Ingyball]

4 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

I'm referring mainly how it handled it hear towards OV. Suggested further east with SLP. It did deepen it too rapidly on yesterday's runs based on what will occur now. 

I actually find it quite interesting how model performance varies by region. Canadian seems to do well in the Plains for some reason lol.