December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[NWOhioChaser]

So it looks like basically the biggest snows in Ohio will end up in the central part of the state where we thought the rain/snow line would cause sharp cutoffs? Or a dry slot would happen.

[Wnwniner]

5 minutes ago, ak9971 said:

So that's under 20:1 then correct if the Kuchera is showing 8"? While elevated that seems entirely possible.

Kuchera for MBY (Columbus Ohio) is less than 15:1; 5.1 inches at 10:1 and kuchera was only 6.5.  15:1 would have been 7.6 or 7.7....

[Chinook]

NWS Briefing

Quote

As of Thursday afternoon, nearly 280 million people in the U.S. are under some form of winter weather warning or advisory. This includes nearly 150 million for wind chill warnings or advisories, 114 million for blizzard warning, 56 million for winter storm warnings and 500 thousand for ice storm warnings.

Quote

Many locations from portions of the Northern Rockies into the Central to Southern High Plains saw temperatures drops greater than 50 degrees in the wake of the passage of the arctic front, including 67 degrees colder at Cheyenne, Wyoming and 72 degrees colder at Denver, Colorado.

actually I think their calculation for number of people in a blizzard warning is not 114 million, as there are not 114 million people in in the Dakotas and Minneapolis combined.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Chinook

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Rgem

[ak9971]

5 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

So it looks like basically the biggest snows in Ohio will end up in the central part of the state where we thought the rain/snow line would cause sharp cutoffs? Or a dry slot would happen.

It seems the short range models have picked up on a heavy band basically NW of 71 and up to just north of 70. I think people with the big totals will rely on that band, otherwise wide 3-4" IMO.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

20z rap

[Ohiobuckeye45]

8 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

So it looks like basically the biggest snows in Ohio will end up in the central part of the state where we thought the rain/snow line would cause sharp cutoffs? Or a dry slot would happen.

I think the low amping up later had a lot to do with that, further SE track and occludes later and so the dry slot avoids our area

[Hassaywx1223]

Light mist has started here currently 38

[StLweatherjunkie]

A couple snowy scenes for the folks still waiting in first flakes. I'm guessing about 4-5" of fresh snow so far:

[Neoncyclone]

Man that cold front is moving!

[ak9971]

5 minutes ago, ak9971 said:

It seems the short range models have picked up on a heavy band basically NW of 71 and up to just north of 70. I think people with the big totals will rely on that band, otherwise wide 3-4" IMO.

Lol pretty similar thoughts apparently.

[ak9971]

Last post for now and will be back later, but here is the band I keep referencing. You can see it gets especially heavy in Warren/Butler county around I-75 area. This has shown up on HRRR for several runs now.

[RobB]

Just took the trash out for tomorrow morning's trash pickup.  I laid my trash (with sealed lid) on its back so as to not blow over.  The Recycle container is upright but I have wedged it on a couple of sides hoping to keep it upright.  I'd have to tie lid otherwise.

[Cincysnow]

First post of the thread, prepping for the storm:

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

[Jeffro]

Clickbait title... Sorry not sorry 🙂 

 

@Hiramite

Edited December 22, 2022 by Jeffro

[JDClapper]

9 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Man that cold front is moving!

 

[RobB]

3 minutes ago, Cincysnow said:

First post of the thread, prepping for the storm:

Cheers!

[cloudy_jake]

Hamilton Ohio's SREF mean has jumped to 6.5 inches! I can't wait till this heavy band of snow hits!

[Cincysnow]

ILN AFD discussion in spoiler

Spoiler

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of this afternoon, a strong PV anomaly continues to interact with an arctic front that stretches from the Great Lakes Region toward the Gulf Coast. A weak surface disturbance in Indiana has started undergo cyclogenesis along the front. The surface and upper level disturbances will continue to mutually amplify as we go into the evening thereby allowing advection of warm, moist air to persist across the Ohio Valley. Showers and low clouds remain around ahead of the approaching arctic front before 7PM. After 7PM, explosive cyclogenesis begins to occur across northern Ohio/eastern lower Michigan thanks to strong dynamic interactions between the westward tilted cyclone and negatively tilted upper level trough. In fact, the cyclone is expected to deepen at least 20 hPa in 12 hours overnight. This type of rapid pressure fall is usually limited to the strongest east coast cool season bomb cyclones. Explosive growth of the cyclone will help accelerate the arctic cold through the Ohio Valley from 8pm in the west to 2 am in the east. FROPA will be clearly marked by a changeover from rain to snow, gusty westerly winds, and rapidly dropping temperatures. Fairly significant to potentially severe hazards are expected to develop across the Ohio Valley after frontal passage overnight: 1) Dangerously cold temperatures below zero and wind chills dropping to near -30. Exposed skin will be susceptible to frostbite in 30 minutes or less. 2) Strong winds gusting upwards of 40 mph. Gusts could lead to potential power outages as temperatures plummet. Winds will also blow around snow leading to reduced visibilities. 3) Snow accumulations anywhere from 1-5 inches depending on location (see snowfall forecast maps or point and click for your location). Snow could lead to icy roads and significantly reduced visibilities. Note: Snow is expected to be fairly brief and end by daybreak, but blowing snow may linger along and northwest of I-71. Snow total forecasts have also been increased this afternoon across the winter storm warning area as mesoscale guidance indicates strong frontogenesis and a possible pivoting snow band. If you must travel after 7pm or 8pm tonight, it is recommended that you have a winter safety kit ready and be prepared for icy conditions combined with low visibilities caused by falling and blowing snow. Additionally, arctic temperatures combined with gusty winds will cause dangerously low wind chills that could lead to frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 15-30 minutes. A contingency plan for staying warm at home in the case of isolated to scattered power outages caused by strong winds is also recommended. The Winter Storm Warning highlights the areas that are expected to have the worst conditions locally. A Wind Chill Warning goes into effect for everyone at 1am for the dangerously cold temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The extremely strong and strengthening cyclone will continue to push northeast of the area on Friday. While snow will have already ended by daybreak, dangerously cold temperatures and high winds persist through the day thanks to a strong pressure gradient in place. Temperatures should stay close to zero all day and peak wind gusts of at least 40 mph are expected. Wind gusts near 50 mph are also possible north of I-70 during the afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow may occur northwest of I-71 if enough snow falls overnight. Wind chill values at or below -25 are expected in most, if not all, locations.

 

[Hassaywx1223]

Crazy it’s 30 degrees colder in Dallas and arctic cold than it is here right now just seeing some of these statistics is wild 

[Neoncyclone]

3 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

 

dropped from 34F about 45 minutes ago to just below 20 now in SE IL

[NWOhioChaser]

24 minutes ago, ak9971 said:

It seems the short range models have picked up on a heavy band basically NW of 71 and up to just north of 70. I think people with the big totals will rely on that band, otherwise wide 3-4" IMO.

 

21 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I think the low amping up later had a lot to do with that, further SE track and occludes later and so the dry slot avoids our area

That’s really encouraging for the area!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

7 minutes ago, Cincysnow said:

ILN AFD discussion in spoiler

  Hide contents

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of this afternoon, a strong PV anomaly continues to interact with an arctic front that stretches from the Great Lakes Region toward the Gulf Coast. A weak surface disturbance in Indiana has started undergo cyclogenesis along the front. The surface and upper level disturbances will continue to mutually amplify as we go into the evening thereby allowing advection of warm, moist air to persist across the Ohio Valley. Showers and low clouds remain around ahead of the approaching arctic front before 7PM. After 7PM, explosive cyclogenesis begins to occur across northern Ohio/eastern lower Michigan thanks to strong dynamic interactions between the westward tilted cyclone and negatively tilted upper level trough. In fact, the cyclone is expected to deepen at least 20 hPa in 12 hours overnight. This type of rapid pressure fall is usually limited to the strongest east coast cool season bomb cyclones. Explosive growth of the cyclone will help accelerate the arctic cold through the Ohio Valley from 8pm in the west to 2 am in the east. FROPA will be clearly marked by a changeover from rain to snow, gusty westerly winds, and rapidly dropping temperatures. Fairly significant to potentially severe hazards are expected to develop across the Ohio Valley after frontal passage overnight: 1) Dangerously cold temperatures below zero and wind chills dropping to near -30. Exposed skin will be susceptible to frostbite in 30 minutes or less. 2) Strong winds gusting upwards of 40 mph. Gusts could lead to potential power outages as temperatures plummet. Winds will also blow around snow leading to reduced visibilities. 3) Snow accumulations anywhere from 1-5 inches depending on location (see snowfall forecast maps or point and click for your location). Snow could lead to icy roads and significantly reduced visibilities. Note: Snow is expected to be fairly brief and end by daybreak, but blowing snow may linger along and northwest of I-71. Snow total forecasts have also been increased this afternoon across the winter storm warning area as mesoscale guidance indicates strong frontogenesis and a possible pivoting snow band. If you must travel after 7pm or 8pm tonight, it is recommended that you have a winter safety kit ready and be prepared for icy conditions combined with low visibilities caused by falling and blowing snow. Additionally, arctic temperatures combined with gusty winds will cause dangerously low wind chills that could lead to frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 15-30 minutes. A contingency plan for staying warm at home in the case of isolated to scattered power outages caused by strong winds is also recommended. The Winter Storm Warning highlights the areas that are expected to have the worst conditions locally. A Wind Chill Warning goes into effect for everyone at 1am for the dangerously cold temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The extremely strong and strengthening cyclone will continue to push northeast of the area on Friday. While snow will have already ended by daybreak, dangerously cold temperatures and high winds persist through the day thanks to a strong pressure gradient in place. Temperatures should stay close to zero all day and peak wind gusts of at least 40 mph are expected. Wind gusts near 50 mph are also possible north of I-70 during the afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow may occur northwest of I-71 if enough snow falls overnight. Wind chill values at or below -25 are expected in most, if not all, locations.

 

"Wind gusts near 50 mph are also possible north of I-70 during the afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow may occur northwest of I-71 if enough snow falls overnight"

Using words like "may" and "if" in regards to blowing snow don't lead me to beleive a blizzard warning was even considered 

[snowlover2]

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