RobB Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 For those interested.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said: @Ohiobuckeye45 watch this… good video, a coastal would come in the form of a secondary either way which those don't impact us at all anyways, because its OUR primary which gives them the coastal secondary. I'm more concerned about the modeling currently as per his commentary and where hes drawn the tough in this screenshot. So hes open to the idea of where currently non GFS modeling is, thats my concern. I would love the GFS, but its clearly being called out as an outlier Edited December 16, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) @Ohiobuckeye45 Bernie is live right now. Thank you @RobB He’ll pin his video for replay. He just said verbatim he believes this is an apps runner with main impacts in the OHV/interior NE. went to analysis on the 12z data Edited December 16, 2022 by Mulaman984 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 did he have his big dog hat on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) that doesn't make sense to me given the GFS is the only model even showing any digging, I hear what hes saying....but outside the GFS, its an entirely different setup. I would have liked for him to have mentioned any other model in addition to the GFS and give his thoughts on what those are doing and why he thinks in time they might look more like the GFS I got the impression he's putting all his eggs in the GFS basket and just ticking west with it, when all the other models are already 600 miles west His analysis of the GFS makes 100% sense Edited December 16, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: that doesn't make sense to me given the GFS is the only model even showing any digging, I hear what hes saying....but outside the GFS, its an entirely different setup. I would have liked for him to have mentioned any other model in addition to the GFS and give his thoughts on what those are doing and why he thinks in time they might look more like the GFS Agreed. I believe he tends to stick more with the GFS and Euro as his models of choice. May make mention of the others when they agree with the other two. Who knows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, RobB said: Agreed. I believe he tends to stick more with the GFS and Euro as his models of choice. May make mention of the others when they agree with the other two. Who knows though. That’s valid. He sometimes discusses the Canadian, but will not look at the UK, icon, etc. that being said, he’s usually spot on about winter systems - and he’s bullish on this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, RobB said: Agreed. I believe he tends to stick more with the GFS and Euro as his models of choice. May make mention of the others when they agree with the other two. Who knows though. Yeah he often says “there’s too many models!” Lol He keeps it pretty simple which I appreciate. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 So far the GFS shoots the ull ahead of the system in the upper Midwest while the foreign models combine the ull with our storm and therefore cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 16, 2022 The GFS isn't as far off as it may seem. I think the other models are doing better with the initial digging, but where it becomes a toss up is how quickly the cold pushes eastward, if that is too slow on the other models then we'll see the storm run up the Apps instead of cut further west like the ICON and UK have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 ECM is still cutter to coastal..... GFS is weak energy up to WV to coastal.... all we care about is the primary energy except for maybe our PA friends. So when that is 600 miles apart is a problem analyzing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, RobB said: see this is constructive lol, its like he heard our forum. "midwest" is the worrisome word here, so hes open to the idea Edited December 16, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) dumpster diving and looks like the KMA is a coastal. And let me be clear I will 1,000% take a coastal miss over a MW miss, because it means no annual Christmas rain we've become accustomed to Edited December 16, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: dumpster diving and looks like the KMA is a coastal. And let me be clear I will 1,000% take a coastal miss over a MW miss, because it means no annual Christmas rain we've become accustomed to I’ve sworn off the KMA. Burned us too many times last year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 its actually a very subtle miller B also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, JayPSU said: And then there's whatever the hell the Canadian is.... Canadian was good here tho in SOMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 hours ago, Ingyball said: Lol not sure why I'm having so many problems quoting on mobile, but anyways I like to see those surface lows in Oklahoma. Would expect them farther south, but it does mean something closer to the GFS is starting to be picked up. Quite the flip on the EPS tho. I've been having trouble with that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I think leaning on ensemble means is always the wisest way to go this far out from events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Euro moving towards Ukie with how the ull acts with our system. May not be full blown cutter but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The gefs seem to suggest a much further west track. Possibly too far west for me🙄😒 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Never, ever, doubt the cutter solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: The gefs seem to suggest a much further west track. Possibly too far west for me🙄😒 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Yea euro gonna be a bit amped and will slide with the Uk, Gem and Icon camp me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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