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December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


Ohiobuckeye45

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3 minutes ago, junior said:

Must be nice living near a natural snow maker 😅

Yes, it makes for frequent snow chances but low confidence snow amount forecasting. Personally, I'd like to know whether I should set my expectations closer to 10" or 2 feet! I think I'll go with the lower bound and be happy with anything more than that. Just check out these QPF gradients though!

qpf_acc.us_state_mi_up.png

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6 minutes ago, BoroBuckeye said:

Somebody posted from Kansas a while back in this thread, I think, that last year they had 30 mph winds and got 15:1 - 20:1 ratios.

Anything is possible, but it's probably wise to temper expectations .... Either way it's going to be incredibly difficult to measure.

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Just now, StLweatherjunkie said:

Anything is possible, but it's probably wise to temper expectations .... Either way it's going to be incredibly difficult to measure.

And at that point, the snow amounts probably wont matter much driving wise.  Gonna be nasty where ever snow falls..Eeek..

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Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

😑

sn10_acc.us_mw (6).png

NAM just appears to be an outlier at this point. I would say the majority have transitioned to some sort of 2-3” minimum in Ohio. We will see though, I can’t ever remember recently this much model disagreement this close. 

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1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Really disappointing showing from the GEFS - we're within 24 hours of the storm & it's clustering is still jumping from north-central Ohio up to the middle of Lake Huron from run to run?! Terrible IMHO

6z v 0z

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_fh24_trend.gif

I'm guessing that the GEFS being even lower resolution and this close to the event does it no favors.  I am just spitballing here though.

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