easton229 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 DTX goes WSW for 3-7” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncinthenext3 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Jpfalcon said: Consumers Energy sent us a text (plus my father-in-law who works for them confirmed) that they will have extra crews in the field on Friday and over the weekend to try and restore power as quickly as possible, so I take a little bit of solace in that. That's good news. There has been more than one occasion where we went DAYS without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted December 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 21, 2022 25 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: See my above post. NWS sucks at communicating important information. Their warning systems are stodgy and outdated, especially when it comes to winter weather. It causes people to dismiss them over time. Location bias 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Hahaha oh Toledo never change 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) NAM definitely more robust in MI this run. Edit: Eastern Michigan Edited December 21, 2022 by easton229 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 21, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 21, 2022 15Z SREF update I realize this is somewhat anti-climactic with the Pivotal maps (I forgot about the Snow Depth map which is higher than the 10:1 but not as high as the plumes.) In any event, I had to brush off the dust, but here we go.... Crap, I can't paste my colored font...so pasting an image instead. SREF Plume Tracker, the mean snow amount of numerous weather models. Great way to not only see the trends near you, but also what areas are being favored by the models. Sometimes they work out fairly well, other times not so well. They are updated every 6 hours but on a ~4-5 hr delay. The plots can be found here. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=CLE This link is for Cleveland, click on the dot nearest to where you live. The tighter the grouping of the individual members, the more confidence in the forecast. (Want your town added below??...just let me know.) 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted December 21, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hiramite said: 15Z SREF update I realize this is somewhat anti-climactic with the Pivotal maps (I forgot about the Snow Depth map which is higher than the 10:1 but not as high as the plumes.) In any event, I had to brush off the dust, but here we go.... Crap, I can't paste my colored font...so pasting an image instead. SREF Plume Tracker, the mean snow amount of numerous weather models. Great way to not only see the trends near you, but also what areas are being favored by the models. Sometimes they work out fairly well, other times not so well. They are updated every 6 hours but on a ~4-5 hr delay. The plots can be found here. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=CLE This link is for Cleveland, click on the dot nearest to where you live. The tighter the grouping of the individual members, the more confidence in the forecast. (Want your town added below??...just let me know.) any reason why these bumped up significantly in some areas? for instance Springfield went from like 3.5 to 8.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted December 21, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 21, 2022 30 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: lol at this point i'd take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, easton229 said: NAM definitely more robust in MI this run. Edit: Eastern Michigan Can you tell me new approximate totals? At the hospital in Flint and have terrible service- pics won’t load? is it looking like a 5-8 spread over flint/the thumb or higher? trying to plan Christmas Eve and Christmas Day visitation (mom is in here recovering from Covid) thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, OSUWx2 said: Showing this Euro model trend of total QPF through 18z on Friday, of the last 3 (major) runs (12z, 0z, and 12z). Note: Not all is snow, some is rain. But the trend is the main takeaway with my post. Yea, my area is under a Winter Weather Advisory & models show west ky getting more snow than most of the winter storm warning areas to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, snowlover2 said: I would take the NAM 3k in a heartbeat. With 30-40mph winds that would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 🚨 Southern part of storm in Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky and to East suddenly looking MUCH better on newest data. Big changes on SREF ARW, NMB, SREF mean and 18z 3k NAM. Edited December 21, 2022 by SOMOSnow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said: Can you tell me new approximate totals? At the hospital in Flint and have terrible service- pics won’t load? is it looking like a 5-8 spread over flint/the thumb or higher? trying to plan Christmas Eve and Christmas Day visitation (mom is in here recovering from Covid) thanks! Yup 5-8 through those areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Anyone have 15k SREF mean with kuchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Saw the Euro for my back yard. Uhhm. That would have to be pretty hard core snow rates to do that. I'll cut in half. Hope to be wrong but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 FWIW, this sounding is making itty bitty snow flakes and I'm a bit surprised: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 21, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: any reason why these bumped up significantly in some areas? for instance Springfield went from like 3.5 to 8.5"? I did notice there were some big jumps throughout the region. The NAM hasn't changed much so I looked at the individual SREF members for the last three runs in Springfield, 03, 09, 15Z, see below. In clicking layers on and off, it looks like the ARW members took a huge jump in the 15Z. I've been told that the ARW members tend to over amp storms. So, my first reaction is that the 15Z amounts are high, so we'll see if things adjust back down in future runs. Quote 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Also, the 18Z NAM 3km lined up nicely with the 12Z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncinthenext3 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Wow.. DTX with the warning prior to CLE. Interesting. I look forward to reading the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, ncinthenext3 said: Wow.. DTX with the warning prior to CLE. Interesting. I look forward to reading the AFD. Basically for impacts - point & click has only two inches for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 DTX favoring a more progressive solution which will limit snowfall amounts and duration of excessive winds for SEMI. 2-8" range for their CWA, lowest at the Ohio border (bummer) and highest in the thumb. Get the impression they're leaning more on the short-range models than the globals at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 @RobB etc, can you help me out here? I haven't used plumes much in awhile. Sref mean for 15z was 2.2 at 10:1 for Springfield. So what is up with this? Shows the average here at almost 5 inches. Are the plumes kuchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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