StormfanaticInd Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Unmet might be on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHValleysnow Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I'm gassing up the cars tonight in case we lose power. It'd be good to have vehicles to get warm in and charge up phones worst case scenario. We don't have a generator yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Would it be okay to include Missouri and Oklahoma? I'm about to present my evidence for the Missouri trip next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 55 minutes ago, Blitz said: I agree with you. I think the NWS is too focused on the criteria and road conditions. What are the point of watches and warnings? To make sure the public is aware of a winter event that could pose a hazard to their lives or their daily plans. In this instance, 50-60 mph winds, flash freezing and cold down as low as 0 pose a threat to life.....espcially if the power goes out. In my opinion, the NWS should've warned Central Ohio yesterday and told people to make alternate arrangements to heat their home in case the power goes out. If not their home, plans ti stay with someone that does have heat. At least you all have alerts lol. The Pittsburgh NWS hasn't issued crap, and doesn't even have a snow map up for what will happen Friday, so they're basically worthless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Think someone mentioned the storm speeding up. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, NeXrad said: And still no WSW for a majority of the state there must have been a changing of the guard at Louisville NWS they used to be one of best in the nation Paducah NWS the same way. Our WSW criteria is even lower than you guys so they should issue at least a watch with 12z model data & simply downgrade to an advisory if they have to instead of being ultra conservative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, Grace said: Alright, the verdict is in! No Monday, otherwise, the trip will go as normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 15 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Think someone mentioned the storm speeding up. Showing this Euro model trend of total QPF through 18z on Friday, of the last 3 (major) runs (12z, 0z, and 12z). Note: Not all is snow, some is rain. But the trend is the main takeaway with my post. Edited December 21, 2022 by OSUWx2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, OSUWx2 said: Showing this Euro model trend of total QPF through 18z on Friday, of the last 3 (major) runs (12z, 0z, and 12z). Very clear east trend and drier in the max snow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Looks better for central Ohio for sure 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Could be a miracle for Ohio 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellWX Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Could be a miracle for Ohio Remember when this storm was 7-8 days out it showed a major hit for the heart of Ohio. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncinthenext3 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Blizzardbill with an update from his FB page. Mentions possibility of snow totals goin from 2-4 in Toledo area to 4-7 or possibly 4-8 inches. Mentions speed of the storm and strengthening of the storm....more snow and slightly higher winds....wants one more model run. https://www.facebook.com/blizzardbill/videos/545295340813054 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted December 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Blitz said: Look, I'm not blaming you. In Central Ohio, plenty of people pay no attention to the weather until they get that alert on their phone for a watch or a warning from the NWS. Considering the conditions could be life threatening if the power goes out, and considering 50-60 mph winds we've known about for days, it seems like they might've wanted to make the blissfully unaware aware, a couple days ago. Even AEP, our local power company put out an alert two days ago that power might go out and they'll do their best to get it back on....but it might take time.....=life threatening. I'd call that "impact driven". I appreciate everything the NWS does. Just think this warranted public attention earlier than today in Central Ohio. I agreed with your original statement and offered a counter point. Heck... every meteorologist has a different methodology/philosophy when it comes to warnings and this can lead to some awkwardness on the local setting before we even reach collaboration with neighboring wfos. Warning methodologies - I'm glad I have some say in what happens in my CWA. I thoroughly believe the impact driver methodology should prevail in most cases. Most people couldn't tell the difference between 4 and 6 inches of snow with winds gusting to 50 mph. I encourage my staff to lean on this methodology instead of following a set of criteria that dates back before my birth. At the end of the day It's the biggest holiday of the year and people will be traveling in places they normally don't. Add in dangerously cold temperatures and blowing snow/snow you're not only going to put your life at risk but someone else's to come save you. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted December 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, ryanmkay said: I've had people at work tell me the last 2 days that were only getting 2-4" of snow and that it isn't going to be that bad. Part of the issue (IMO) is DTX reluctance to wait until the 11th hour to issue any watches/warnings. People don't realize there are other aspects of winter weather other than frozen precip. They have no idea the extent of wind damage that is possible coupled with extreme temperatures. It all stems from outdated warning philosophies. That's all I'll comment. Edited December 21, 2022 by MidwestWX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 hours ago, RadioWX said: There will also be people that say this storm is no big deal because it is only 3-4 inches. Not everyone takes the time to learn the details and risks, unfortunately. I did my thesis on the psychology of the public during emergency weather events (tornadoes & hurricanes mostly, but some winter weather mixed in). There will always be a sect of the public that downplays events because they can recall a time that a forecast busted, therefore they become cynics of future warnings and choose not to heed them. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, ncinthenext3 said: Blizzardbill with an update from his FB page. Mentions possibility of snow totals goin from 2-4 in Toledo area to 4-7 or possibly 4-8 inches. Mentions speed of the storm and strengthening of the storm....more snow and slightly higher winds....wants one more model run. https://www.facebook.com/blizzardbill/videos/545295340813054 In Blizz I trust! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, MidwestWX said: I agree. It all stems from outdated philosophies. That's all I'll comment. See my above post. NWS sucks at communicating important information. Their warning systems are stodgy and outdated, especially when it comes to winter weather. It causes people to dismiss them over time. Edited December 21, 2022 by Jpfalcon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 21, 2022 We're having ice issues here already. Need to get above freezing today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 18z HRRR just has the low sitting and spinning just NE of northern MI for most of MI.nice prolonged snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I'm disgustingly curious to see how many power outages occur in SEMI on Friday. Might be the worst state grid in the country (close w/Texas) and it's taken a beating the last couple of years. Not sure it's seen something as long duration as this event may wind up being, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 21, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) SREF's have taken a nice jump... Edit...in many locations. Edited December 21, 2022 by Hiramite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hiramite said: SREF's have taken a nice jump across OH. See if the NAM follows suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncinthenext3 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: I'm disgustingly curious to see how many power outages occur in SEMI on Friday. Might be the worst state grid in the country (close w/Texas) and it's taken a beating the last couple of years. Not sure it's seen something as long duration as this event may wind up being, unfortunately. Those of us in Southern Monroe County know we're not always a priority..........That's why there's about a day of fuel for the generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ncinthenext3 said: Those of us in Southern Monroe County know we're not always a priority..........That's why there's about a day of fuel for the generator. Consumers Energy sent us a text (plus my father-in-law who works for them confirmed) that they will have extra crews in the field on Friday and over the weekend to try and restore power as quickly as possible, so I take a little bit of solace in that. Edited December 21, 2022 by Jpfalcon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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