Moderators Hiramite Posted December 21, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: They really had no choice but to redefine criteria for a WSW this event, they probably felt a WWA was too lax but a blizzard warning too agressive. idk if this is what you are getting at, but as mentioned yesterday, there is an "Impact Driven" criteria already in place. Source.... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-513 OCTOBER 12, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I really feel sorry for people who waited until today to get supplies and groceries. I ran to Kroger for six items yesterday and waited in line for almost 45 minutes. People should stay prepared, in my opinion, all winter long, just in case. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Issued mid-morning. 2 and 4" probabilities. Looks NAMish. Definitely not GFSish 🥴 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hiramite said: idk if this is what you are getting at, but as mentioned yesterday, there is an "Impact Driven" criteria already in place. Source.... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-513 OCTOBER 12, 2022 Warranted imo given the wind, blowing snow, and temperatures. Looks like they’re expiring it Friday night and moving to a wind chill warning. Don’t fault them with how they’re handling it especially considering they’re usually very conservative. I’ve talked with a few people that didn’t think Friday travel would be a big deal a few days ago when I told them. Once NWS started their messaging they then changed their plans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I’m not surprised iln went with watch here considering holiday weekend and the severity of the winds/wind chill let alone add an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The Blizzard Warning is now for 3 counties in Indiana, this includes South Bend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Map is starting to light up like a Christmas tree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hiramite said: idk if this is what you are getting at, but as mentioned yesterday, there is an "Impact Driven" criteria already in place. Source.... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-513 OCTOBER 12, 2022 wow I never knew that, but yeah I feel like that is probably seldom used, in fact this might be the first time I've ever seen it enacted? Like Marshall's law of weather haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 21, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Looks NAMish. Definitely not GFSish 🥴 WPC used to have a model discussion where one could read their thinking but they got rid of it. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Dunno if anyone watched BAM’s Twitter live at 11:00 but they don’t know which models are right or wrong either. He could make the case for GFS amped solution but also NAM type solution. So we wait and see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Hiramite said: WPC used to have a model discussion where one could read their thinking but they got rid of it. Bummer. That stinks. I found it interesting how they used different blends of models. If I’m thinking of the correct discussion. 😬 Regardless… Edited December 21, 2022 by cperry29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hiramite said: WPC used to have a model discussion where one could read their thinking but they got rid of it. Bummer. Sounds like that they too want to keep their weather discussions confidential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncinthenext3 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, Indygirl said: I really feel sorry for people who waited until today to get supplies and groceries. I ran to Kroger for six items yesterday and waited in line for almost 45 minutes. People should stay prepared, in my opinion, all winter long, just in case. Being with you all on these forums is how I do just that! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 21, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, cperry29 said: That stinks. I found it interesting how they used different blends of models. If I’m thinking of the correct discussion. 😬 Regardless… 1 minute ago, Iceresistance said: Sounds like that they too want to keep their weather discussions confidential. Sometimes I see brief mentions of the models, but not the in-depth stuff like before. Here's the mention of it being terminated. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted December 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 21, 2022 MNDOT road condition page will only get worse over the next few days. I'd say between 1.5 to 2 inches so far. Fluffy but definitely seeing some fracturing due to stronger LLJ winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GRR Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 All of central Indiana will go under a Winter Storm Warning starting tomorrow at 3pm. Conditions will get very bad really quick as temperatures plummet and rain changes to snow. Snowfall rates could be 1"-2" per hour when the change takes place along with a flash freeze. @WRTV 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Basically describing a blizzard in the winter storm warning for me 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GRR Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: Basically describing a blizzard in the winter storm warning for me You have the write up? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 34 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said: 1 inch and 5 mph changes a watch to a warning???? I'm not buying it in this situation. I think that's very petty on ILN's part. Not for my storm hopes, but for safety's sake!! I agree with you. I think the NWS is too focused on the criteria and road conditions. What are the point of watches and warnings? To make sure the public is aware of a winter event that could pose a hazard to their lives or their daily plans. In this instance, 50-60 mph winds, flash freezing and cold down as low as 0 pose a threat to life.....espcially if the power goes out. In my opinion, the NWS should've warned Central Ohio yesterday and told people to make alternate arrangements to heat their home in case the power goes out. If not their home, plans ti stay with someone that does have heat. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blitz said: I agree with you. I think the NWS is too focused on the criteria and road conditions. What are the point of watches and warnings? To make sure the public is aware of a winter event that could pose a hazard to their lives or their daily plans. In this instance, 50-60 mph winds, flash freezing and cold down as low as 0 pose a threat to life.....espcially if the power goes out. In my opinion, the NWS should've warned Central Ohio yesterday and told people to make alternate arrangements to heat their home in case the power goes out. If not their home, plans ti stay with someone that does have heat. Especially knowing the “impact driven” can be a source of criteria, even if thresholds aren’t met..,completely agree. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted December 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Blitz said: I agree with you. I think the NWS is too focused on the criteria and road conditions. What are the point of watches and warnings? To make sure the public is aware of a winter event that could pose a hazard to their lives or their daily plans. In this instance, 50-60 mph winds, flash freezing and cold down as low as 0 pose a threat to life.....espcially if the power goes out. In my opinion, the NWS should've warned Central Ohio yesterday and told people to make alternate arrangements to heat their home in case the power goes out. If not their home, plans ti stay with someone that does have heat. We've advertised life threatening conditions since Monday morning in my neck of the woods. ...or you can play by an outdated rule book or mind set 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blitz said: I agree with you. I think the NWS is too focused on the criteria and road conditions. What are the point of watches and warnings? To make sure the public is aware of a winter event that could pose a hazard to their lives or their daily plans. In this instance, 50-60 mph winds, flash freezing and cold down as low as 0 pose a threat to life.....espcially if the power goes out. In my opinion, the NWS should've warned Central Ohio yesterday and told people to make alternate arrangements to heat their home in case the power goes out. If not their home, plans ti stay with someone that does have heat. 1 minute ago, Mulaman984 said: Especially knowing the “impact driven” can be a source of criteria, even if thresholds aren’t met..,completely agree. I think each office is given a lot of latitude to make their own decisions aside and separate from the official criteria. I've seen them do things outside the normal criteria based on specific situations several times and across different offices. It looks like this one may have dropped the ball here. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanmkay Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, MidwestWX said: We've advertised life threatening conditions since Monday morning in my neck of the woods. ...or you can play by an outdated rule book or mind set I've had people at work tell me the last 2 days that were only getting 2-4" of snow and that it isn't going to be that bad. Part of the issue (IMO) is DTX reluctance to wait until the 11th hour to issue any watches/warnings. People don't realize there are other aspects of winter weather other than frozen precip. They have no idea the extent of wind damage that is possible coupled with extreme temperatures. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted December 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, 1816 said: I think each office is given a lot of latitude to make their own decisions aside and separate from the official criteria. I've seen them do things outside the normal criteria based on specific situations several times and across different offices. It looks like this one may have dropped the ball here. Exactly. It's very easy to under estimate impacts from a deterministic standpoint. It's also important to remember we're human too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Good Lord this storm is huge!!!!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now