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December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


Ohiobuckeye45

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-5 and 3/4 mile visibility at MSP... never too cold to snow!

Mesoscale Discussion 2054
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1033 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

   Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota...far northwest
   Iowa...southern Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 211633Z - 212030Z

   SUMMARY...The potential for heavy snowfall rates between 1-2 inches
   per hour is expected to increase through the late morning and early
   afternoon from the mid Missouri River Valley to the upper
   Mississippi River Valley.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics from the past 1-3 hours show an
   elongated zone of increasing reflectivity values from eastern SD to
   southern MN. This is likely in response to strengthening isentropic
   ascent in the 925-700 mb layer within a broad warm frontal zone
   draped across the region. This mesoscale ascent is augmenting more
   broad, synoptic lift ahead of an approaching shortwave trough over
   the northern Plains, and is supporting an increase in coverage of
   moderate, to at times heavy, snowfall rates per latest surface
   observations and regional web cams. Latest guidance suggests that
   this trend should continue through at least early afternoon as the
   synoptic low continues east/southeast and saturation of the lowest
   1-2 km continues. Forecast soundings indicate that much of the
   low/mid-level ascent coincides with a ~100 mb deep dendritic growth
   zone, which will favor efficient snow production and the potential
   for heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour. 

   The current warm advection regime over eastern SD/southern MN will
   likely support periods of broken snow bands through the early
   afternoon (which appears probable based on latest reflectivity
   trends), and this may yield localized higher snowfall rates between
   1-2 inches/hour. The approach of the mid-level cold front later this
   afternoon may maintain the potential for localized banding via
   frontogenetical processes.

   ..Moore.. 12/21/2022

 

mcd2054.gif

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I'm not sure what the hold up is on WWA around here, WSW is off the table. With being a holiday weekend you know a WWA would still go up even with a handful of snow showers given the wind, might as well just throw it up now and adjust the wording as needed

Edited by Ohiobuckeye45
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ILN extends the WSW.

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1212 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

INZ058-059-066-073-074-OHZ045-046-053>056-060>063-070>072-077-
220115-
/O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0005.221223T0000Z-221223T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WC.A.0001.221223T0600Z-221224T0900Z/
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Union OH-Delaware-
Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Marysville, Delaware, Springfield, London,
West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden,
Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia,
Washington Court House, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford,
Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester,
and Cincinnati
1212 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, combination of snow, blowing
  snow, and wind possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. For the
  Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind
  chills as low as 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana and
  Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Watch, from Thursday evening
  through Friday afternoon. For the Wind Chill Watch, from late
  Thursday night through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Friday morning commute as well as
  holiday travel. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and
  cause power outages. The dangerously cold wind chills could
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will drop sharply in the
  matter of a few hours during Thursday night, rapidly falling
  well below freezing, leading to the potential for a flash
  freeze. This will cause travel conditions to rapidly
  deteriorate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Before I forget, "hats off" to anyone (public service, law enforcement, utility workers, medical, EMS, etc) that has to go out and work this weekend regardless of the weather.  I don't know how many we have on here, but thank you!

I’m on duty Friday. Fingers crossed that people stay home. 

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The watch that was already in place is now a warning.

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1212 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-052-220115-
/O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0004.221223T0200Z-221223T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WS.W.0005.221223T0000Z-221223T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WC.A.0001.221223T0600Z-221224T0900Z/
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Miami-Champaign-
Including the cities of Richmond, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Troy,
Piqua, Tipp City, and Urbana
1212 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, combination of snow,
  blowing snow, and wind expected. Total snow accumulations of 2
  to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Wind Chill
  Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as
  low as 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 7 PM Thursday to 5
  PM EST Friday. For the Wind Chill Watch, from late Thursday
  night through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Friday morning commute as well as
  holiday travel. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and
  cause power outages. The dangerously cold wind chills could
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will drop sharply in the
  matter of a few hours during Thursday night, rapidly falling
  well below freezing, leading to the potential for a flash
  freeze. This will cause travel conditions to rapidly
  deteriorate.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I'm not sure what the hold up is on WWA around here, WSW is off the table. With being a holiday weekend you know a WWA would still go up even with a handful of snow showers given the wind, might as well just throw it up now and adjust the wording as needed

HA! good timing, but clearly in this case they've "re defined" what a WSW actually is due to the severity of the winds situation and not wanting to use a blizzard warning

Edited by Ohiobuckeye45
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Just now, FortySixAnd32 said:

1 inch and 5 mph changes a watch to a warning???? I'm not buying it in this situation. I think that's very petty on ILN's part. Not for my storm hopes, but for safety's sake!!

They really had no choice but to redefine criteria for a WSW this event, they probably felt a WWA was too lax but a blizzard warning too agressive. 

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Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

They really had no choice but to redefine criteria for a WSW this event, they probably felt a WWA was too lax but a blizzard warning too agressive. 

I'm not looking for the blizzard warning. I just think it should be warning level material for the public's awareness towards safety....especially when 1 county West only has a 1 inch difference and 5 mph difference...

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1 minute ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

I'm not looking for the blizzard warning. I just think it should be warning level material for the public's awareness towards safety....especially when 1 county West only has a 1 inch difference and 5 mph difference...

could be because that western cutoff is still up in the air

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