Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 maybe the CMC suite to a small extent but the GFS goes even beyond this frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 On a side note, can’t believe how nice it is outside today, even if it is on the colder side. Sun is out and not a cloud in the sky with no wind at all. Definitely the calm before the storm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: but HOW it gets to that solution is what's different, no other model shows the backside swinging in for Ohio One thing to keep in mind is that while we look at hi-resolution models remember that they're perform best inside 24hrs. They can bite you if yiu lean heavily on them outside of that. Tonight's 0z & morning 12z Hi-resolution will be more reliable. But noting trends on RAP & HRRR are at least very helpful. I say that to say I would not let today's 12z hi-resolution models lead us to disregard the 12z GFS. Obviously I would not say it's correct either but can't disregard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: but HOW it gets to that solution is what's different, no other model shows the backside swinging in for Ohio Very true. HRRR hints at it in the last frame but it cuts off 18z should be here in a few hours and we will see which direction it goes on that front. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GRR Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 NWS Indianapolis @NWSIndianapolis · 6m We cannot stress the severity of the forecast wind chills from this weekend's winter storm enough. Wind chills near the currently forecast -30 degrees for durations of 8+ hours are climatologically rare. Avoid prolonged periods outside through the weekend and dress warm. #INwx 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 It's crazy to be this close to a storm like this and still have major disagreements in the models. What a nightmare 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: It's crazy to be this close to a storm like this and still have major disagreements in the models. What a nightmare It means that I could get the Blizzard, even though the chances are very slim, I must stay vigilant just in case this storm system decides to repeat Christmas 2009. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) this is the wild card for OH, this is all completely not associated with the frontal passage itself and more the upper level low possibly and/or wind off the lakes as the low stalls over the thumb Edited December 21, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I don't think he's been posted yet!!! Very apropos for this weekend.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) Before the lake driven stuff really fires off we’re still looking at 4”+ in W. Ohio and more amp’d totals in Indiana. Very interesting, but a lot of the high totals later are from the low sitting in Michigan and it pulling snows from the lakes. Edited December 21, 2022 by ak9971 Clarification 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: It's crazy to be this close to a storm like this and still have major disagreements in the models. What a nightmare Par for the course. I don't think I can recall a Winter storm where this wasn't the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 and still no WSW for a majority of the state 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, NeXrad said: and still no WSW for a majority of the state It's the wind chill that is more dangerous than the snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 GFS juicied up. Also stronger. You probably don’t want it any stronger in OH because it’ll start to tilt and we won’t get much overrunning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: CMC here was the run over run compare, once again drier in general, esp in N IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 UK is factionally better, but lets honestly hope this is off its rocker....If we're not able to dismiss the GFS for being too juiced, I don't think we can just dismiss the UK because it goes the other direction either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 15z RAP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Blizzard warning popping up in NW IN 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, junior said: Blizzard warning popping up in NW IN For just 1 county? 😄 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, junior said: Blizzard warning popping up in NW IN 1 county?!?! haha Edited December 21, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 1 county?!?! haha Enough to break their streak. Kinda like how our warning streaks are broken from some random county 😂 Edited December 21, 2022 by junior 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 ohh look at this fancy new graphic for "nighttime" blowing snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GRR Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: For just 1 county? 😄 I believe those are issued out of the Chicago NWS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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