December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[NWsnowhio]

I see the CLE pulled the trigger on Winter Storm Watch for multiple hazards, including 2-4" of snow.

Guess they were just waiting on Ole Blizzard Bill to confirm that his call of 2-4" (made around Noon Monday) was indeed the way to go.

I know he's right nearly every time, but yet I still watch all the model runs. Oh the sleep this dude would save me if I only listened...

 

[OSUWx2]

12z HRRR snow. Not bad IMO...

[BuckeyeGal]

I'm feeling 2"-4" for Columbus and surrounding areas, too. I know that could bust, but dang it, it's Christmas, and I have to have hope. lol.

[Pros3lyte]

52 minutes ago, ak9971 said:

Don’t worry they’ll post a WSW after the criteria has already been met well into an event. I think it’s hilarious when they do that. 

DTX has a tendency to do that. 
 

once in a while they just never upgrade and I feel like it’s some old codger in there that just wants to stick to his guns for the principle of the thing lol

[Hiramite]

Christmasy.

 

[easton229]

5 minutes ago, OSUWx2 said:

12z HRRR snow. Not bad IMO...

And still snowing in MI too. That’s the best I’ve seen for my area the past 24 hours.

[beaver56]

11 minutes ago, ncinthenext3 said:

I could imagine seeing anything from a dusting to 6 inches since MBY is so close to the cutoff.  Heck maybe even the Winter Storm Watch turns into a Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning.  

I am kind of in the same boat. 

[beaver56]

2 minutes ago, easton229 said:

And still snowing in MI too. That’s the best I’ve seen for my area the past 24 hours.

Lock that in.  Pretty good for everyone.

[Hiramite]

Last one from me for awhile...

WPC's Heavy Snow Discussion from last night.   Using that "historic" word.

Quote

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Dec 21 2022 - 12Z Sat Dec 24 2022


...Northern Great Plains through the Interior Northeast...
Days 1-3...

...Powerful blizzard with extremely cold temperatures, dangerously
frigid wind chills, and a flash freeze likely...

A powerful and likely historic winter storm is set to unfold
across the Midwest and the Great Lakes leading up to the holiday
weekend. This storm system's story will not be told fully by just
snowfall totals, but the by the combination of intense wind gusts
and dangerously cold temperatures that are associated with the
storm. Initially, 850mb WAA over the Midwest gives rise to periods
of snow from the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley
as temperatures are well below freezing in wake of the Arctic
frontal passage. Latest WPC PWPF shows moderate probabilities
(40-60%) of snowfall >6" over central Minnesota on Wednesday.
Speaking of the front, it will race south and east through the
Plains Wednesday evening and pass through the Middle Mississippi
Valley Thursday morning. Snow will fall in wake of the frontal
passage, otherwise known as an anafrontal precipitation shield,
thanks to the divergent left exit region of a roaring 180 knot
250mb jet streak aloft and residual 700mb moisture flux lagging
behind the front. While it is snowing, winds are gusting 30-50mph
thanks to the tight pressure gradient generated from lower
pressure along in the East, and an impressive 1060mb Arctic high
pressure engulfs the Northwest and northern High Plains (above the
99th climatological percentile and approaching monthly records in
parts of the Northwest on Thursday). The swath of snow will move
along across the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley
with most snowfall accumulations coming in below 4". That said,
the combination of intense wind gusts and increasing SLRs
(15-20:1) in wake of the front will allow for bursts of heavy,
wind driven snow that cause near whiteout and blizzard conditions
in these areas on Thursday. 

As the trough amplifies, the 500mb low will dive south through the
Midwest, reaching minimum heights that are among the lowest
observed on record for late December. The trough will tap into
both Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture and direct them north
across the eastern U.S.. As the 850mb low forms over southern
Michigan Thursday night, northerly winds will begin to strengthen
over Lakes Superior and Michigan. The combination of 15-20:1 SLRs
and additional lake enhancement will make these areas (U.P. of
Michigan, northwest Michigan). These are the areas with the best
odds of seeing the most prolific snowfall rates and heaviest
totals for the event, on top of the expected 40-50+ mph wind
gusts. Latest WPC 72-hr PWPF shows >18" snowfall probabilities up
to an impressive 70-80% there. It is also worth noting these high
of probabilities exist for >12" of snow on south into southwest
Michigan. As the low lifts into Lake Huron on Friday morning,
850mb winds out of the WSW will be an astonishing 70 knots, not
only leading to a potentially significant and damaging wind event
off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but also intense lake effect snow
bands that would produce 2-3"/hr snowfall rates. The same can be
said for those in the U.P. of Michigan and northwest Michigan. The
wind impacts can not be understated, as not only will these lead
to prolonged blizzard conditions (resulting in dangerous and
impossible travel conditions) but could also mean downed trees and
power lines at a time when bitterly cold temperatures will stick
around well into the holiday weekend. Those in the most heavily
impacted areas of the Great Lakes should ensure they have plan
accordingly for a long duration heavy snow event from Friday into
Christmas Eve.

Farther south, the fast moving Arctic front will prompt periods of
rain to occur within the warm sector, but once the front passes
through, temperatures will plummet to subfreezing levels late
Thursday into Friday. This allows for precipitation to change over
to a combination of graupel/rain, then eventually all snow as the
atmospheric column quickly cools below freezing. Upslope flow into
the central Appalachians could lead to some receiving localized
totals >4" (WPC probabilities 10-20% in northern WV and western
PA). Farther north where the cold air is still wedged in from the
cold air damming setup over the interior Northeast, snow will fall
heavily in the parts of the Adirondacks, Finger Lakes area of
central New York, and into the Berkshires and Green Mountains.
Probabilities for >6" of snow are highest in the Adirondacks where
there is a moderate chance (40-60%) for those totals Thursday
night into early Friday. Meanwhile, the front will make its way
east through the Mid-Atlantic Friday morning where a brief burst
of heavy snow could result in significantly reduced visibility
along the I-95 corridor from central Virginia to southern New
England. Accumulations would likely be very light, but there is
also the potential for a flash freeze in these areas east of the
Appalachians. Blustery winds will help to evaporate much of the
rainfall that fell on Thursday, but any standing areas of water
could freeze Friday evening and lead to slick spots of sidewalks
and roads Friday night into Christmas Eve morning.

With such a widespread extent of strong wind gusts, accumulating
snowfall, and bitterly cold temperatures, this will undoubtedly
lead to numerous and widespread travel delays and cancellations
Thursday, Friday, and likely lingering into Christmas Eve. With
such a busy time for travel across the country, those traveling in
the eastern half of the continental U.S. should prepare
accordingly for cancellations and take caution when driving
leading up to the Christmas weekend.

 

 

[GRR]

Jim O'Brien

@JimOBrienWX

·

9m

Latest thinking still puts up to 4+ inches in central Indiana with higher totals east of the city! A new model run will paint a MUCH better picture by 4pm tonight! Remember this is a two-part storm snow then dangerous wind chills! See you back here tomorrow at 4am!

@Fox59

[Grace]

12z HRRR

[RobB]

One more post before I get away.LOL

 

With talk of flash freeze, we often (and rightly so) think of road conditions.  Let us not forget that cars parked outside that see rain to snow with these damn temps will have frozen doors.

[RobB]

1070!

 

Geesh

[Ohiobuckeye45]

4 minutes ago, OSUWx2 said:

12z HRRR snow. Not bad IMO...

Not bad is an understatement but to catch you up there are 2 giant skeptical points with this solution the first is could there truly be this amount of frontal QPF in the cold sector, the setup is unique, but conventional wisdom says no, some models say yes others say no. The second being kuchera is being handled incorrectly in this set up because of winds aloft in the DGZ being so incredibly strong it actually hurts ratios because it breaks the flake in tiny pieces. (This was brought to the attention by several members on here, the WPC, and a write up from IL).

 

BTW You also missed about 36 hours where Models were showing 6-12"+ for the area, haha those were good times

[GRR]

[beaver56]

4 minutes ago, GRR said:

Jim O'Brien

@JimOBrienWX

·

9m

Latest thinking still puts up to 4+ inches in central Indiana with higher totals east of the city! A new model run will paint a MUCH better picture by 4pm tonight! Remember this is a two-part storm snow then dangerous wind chills! See you back here tomorrow at 4am!

@Fox59

Sign me up.  I will believe it when I see it.

[ak9971]

12z HRRR very similar to the 6z. Posted the same maps as previous and included the 10:1. I think the wind and temps are going to be the biggest story of this storm. Several hours of 45+ mph gusts across a huge region and temps down below 0. 

[Jpfalcon]

Our daycare has closed for Friday already, wonderful...

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, RobB said:

1070!

 

Geesh

1070hp to 970mb low basically wow

[NWsnowhio]

3 minutes ago, ak9971 said:

12z HRRR very similar to the 6z. Posted the same maps as previous and included the 10:1. I think the wind and temps are going to be the biggest story of this storm. Several hours of 45+ mph gusts across a huge region and temps down below 0. 

Interesting last frame there on the HRRR. Is it trying to fill in some wrap-around there at the end?

[ak9971]

1 minute ago, NWsnowhio said:

Interesting last frame there on the HRRR. Is it trying to fill in some wrap-around there at the end?

I noticed that as well and will be interested to see what comes of it on the 18z

[OSUWx2]

5 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Not bad is an understatement but to catch you up there are 2 giant skeptical points with this solution the first is could there truly be this amount of frontal QPF in the cold sector, the setup is unique, but conventional wisdom says no, some models say yes others say no. The second being kuchera is being handled incorrectly in this set up because of winds aloft in the DGZ being so incredibly strong it actually hurts ratios because it breaks the flake in tiny pieces. (This was brought to the attention by several members on here, the WPC, and a write up from IL).

 

BTW You also missed about 36 hours where Models were showing 6-12"+ for the area, haha those were good times

Good point on the Kuchera and winds, I would have thought the algorithm would have taken this into consideration, but it clearly hasn't. I saw @ak9971 posted the 10:1 map so I won't be redundant. 

And I'm glad I missed the 6-12" runs. I def. would have been baited in lol

[beaver56]

3 minutes ago, NWsnowhio said:

Interesting last frame there on the HRRR. Is it trying to fill in some wrap-around there at the end?

Is it possible with the winds it could be some far traveling fetch from the lakes?

[Ohiobuckeye45]

These "smoothed out" blanket solutions the 3KM HRRR RAP are showing would be awesome to see verify, at that point its 100% reliance on frontal precip and everyone gets it. I'm still just Slightly skeptical bc how vicious dry air of that magnitude is which will be on the heels of QPF closely 

[NWsnowhio]

Just now, ak9971 said:

I noticed that as well and will be interested to see what comes of it on the 18z

It is possibly fetch/lake enhancement given the winds, but there does seem to be some pivoting happening in that last frame as well. Maybe the GFS found itself a buddy?? Time will tell.