December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[NWOhioChaser]

Drying up up up.

[FortySixAnd32]

'blizzpocalypse'

 

This is one I haven't heard yet.....

[StLweatherjunkie]

I'm under a winter weather advisory for 4-10 inches of snow with localized higher amounts possible.

Come on, just give this southerner a darn warning!

[Indygirl]

6 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

'blizzpocalypse'

 

This is one I haven't heard yet.....

Was it said by a met?

[Snow____]

Everything is saying for at least 2-4 here in SW Ohio except NAM which is pretty dry everywhere. HRRR looks good , RAP looks good. 
Let’s see what 12z brings. Should be interesting.

[FortySixAnd32]

4 minutes ago, Indygirl said:

Was it said by a met?

A USA Today article....

[junior]

Interesting that the GFS is the most robust. Usually is the least. I’ll take a snow squall. 

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

000
FXUS63 KIND 210754
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
254 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

Light northerly flow should gradually trend easterly this morning as
isallobaric response to strong upstream mid-latitude system begins.
Weak warm advection should bring temperatures again up to similar
levels as yesterday, and help low stratus cloud band across
northwest sections of the area abate. Meanwhile, high-level Pacific
moisture stream and resultant cirrus will overspread.

285-K isentropic surface moistens quickly after midnight tonight
with ascent indicated by pressure advection on that surface, and low-
level streamline analysis. Forecast soundings become saturated to a
sufficient depth for drizzle, though a thin near-surface layer may
lag with saturation delaying onset some. Meanwhile, warm advection
should push us above freezing right around or shortly after onset of
light drizzle. In a reasonable worst case scenario a brief period of
freezing drizzle at precipitation onset may occur but this is
unlikely to be impactful due to (1) brief duration, and (2) minimal
amounts.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

***********
Highlights:
***********

* Dangerous wind chills to -20F to -30F Friday into Saturday
* Period of high winds (40-55 mph) Thursday night through Friday
* Confidence is increasing in the snow threat with a gradient of 4-6
  inches in the north to around 2-4 in the south.
* Transition from rain to snow continues to trend earlier in evening

*****************
Synoptic Pattern:
*****************

Confidence continues to increase in a rapidly deepening low pressure
system with a surface low pressure system tracking from northern
Texas into the Midwest with rapid cyclogenesis as it crosses into
Indiana and moves to the northeast.  Model ensembles are getting a
better handle on the timing and strength of this cyclogenesis with a
deepening rate of 1-2mb/hr as it passes over central/northern
Indiana. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact timing of
rapid depletion, of which will impact where the heaviest bands of
snowfall will form.

A well developed cold front will pass through Thursday evening into
Thursday night. There has been a trend in the higher res models to
quicken the progression of the cold front, of which seems plausible.
The sheer density gradient of the cold to warm air should allow for
an efficient progression. Prior to frontal passage, an influx of
surface moisture within weak southerly flow should all for extensive
low level cloud cover. Precipitation will be likely, but a mid level
dry layer will likely inhibit droplet growth. This should result in
a more drizzle-like precip vs large rain drops.

Temperatures will rapidly decrease following the passage of the
cold front with precipitation continuing in an anafrontal region. A
warm nose will wrap around the low, producing a TROWAL-like feature.
This should become even more enhanced as the low deepens. Mesobands
are likely to form in this region producing high QPF. This warm nose
will also prolong the depth of DGZ saturation allowing for high
SLRs. This should lead to 1-2"/hr rates at times Thursday night.

As the low moves off to the NE, central Indiana will be encompassed
within an arctic air mass. The extreme cold temperatures in
combination with some low level saturation and steep lapse rates
between 1-3km could lead to snow squalls throughout Friday,
especially over north central Indiana, where lift is more apparent.
This could add additional amounts to increase total snow
accumulation. Any snow that does fall is likely to have lower SLRs
due to the lack of dendrites and mechanical fractures of any snow
flakes that due form.

As mentioned, the low will rapidly deepen Friday into Friday night
creating a very tight pressure gradient over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. This should result in high winds; sustained at 20-30MPH
with gusts up to 50MPH. High winds are expected to stay elevated
until Saturday, when high pressure begins to build, weakening the
pressure gradient

********
Impacts:
********

Snow/Precipitation:

Timing of the arrival of the arctic air looks to be between 6 PM and
10 PM Thursday with rapidly crashing temperatures.  We expect a
quick transition from rain to snow immediately after the frontal
passage with a possible 10-15 minute period of sleet as the colder
air arrives. Confidence in the exact timing remains somewhat
uncertain but confidence is high that temperatures will drop 20-30
degrees in a matter of hours. A flash freeze is likely for whatever
residual precipitation is on the ground after the arrival of the
colder air. This in combination with a quick transition to fairly
high snow rates will lead to a fast degradation in road conditions.
As with frontal passage, the exact timing of heaviest snow remains
uncertain, but will be shortly after the frontal passage. Snow rates
Thursday night could reach 1-2" leading to vary hazardous conditions
for anyone on the roads.

Current thoughts are that snow totals will be around 4-6 inches in
areas north and west of Indianapolis with a gradual gradient towards
2-4 inches across south central Indiana.  The additional snow on
Friday will be focused across north central Indiana.

Cold:

As mentioned, temperatures will quickly drop 25-35 degrees following
frontal passage Thursday night. Winds then will also pick up through
the night with wind chills of 20 to 25 below zero by daybreak
Friday. Temperatures will remain near steady state through the day
Friday with increasing winds and wind chills approaching 30 below
zero.

Near zero to below zero temperatures are then expected Friday night
and Saturday night with wind chills staying below -10 through
Christmas.  The length and severity of this cold will have
compounding impacts with a 72 hour period of continual subzero wind
chills.  With the combination of ground snow and CAA, daytime highs
will struggle to rise out of single digits this weekend.

Wind:

Wind speeds will begin to pick up immediately after the frontal
passage with gusts of 35-45 mph through the overnight hours.
Strengthening near surface level lapse rates combined with the
increasing pressure gradients will then allow for even stronger
winds going into the afternoon hours with occasional 50-55 mph
gusts.  Those stronger gusts will relax after sunset, but remain in
the 30-45 mph range through the overnight hours, especially north of
Indianapolis.  Winds of 25-35 mph will then continue into Saturday.

***********
Conclusion:
***********

A deep low pressure system is expected to progress through the Great
Lakes region Thursday through Saturday. This will provide widespread
precipitation over central Indiana late Thursday through Friday
night. Initially, p-type will be rain/drizzle, but by late Thursday
it will transition to snow. The transition will be quick with the
heaviest snow falling shortly after the transition.

Dangerously cold wind chills, damaging winds, and blowing snow will
lead to treacherous travel conditions Friday with lesser impacts
going into Saturday.  If planning to travel Thursday night or
Friday, it is time to find an alternative plan.

Regarding headlines; continuing the watch for all of central
Indiana. While snow amounts may not reach the standard criteria,
especially towards Vincennes, the overall impacts of the winds,
snow, and cold warrant the watch.  The watch also covers the full
period of high weather impacts with a period where the snow is the
primary impact before the period where the wind and cold becomes
more impactful.

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by TheBlizzardOf1978

[Hiramite]

55 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I'm under a winter weather advisory for 4-10 inches of snow with localized higher amounts possible.

Come on, just give this southerner a darn warning!

In due time, lol.    It's gonna be awesome to experience the high winds and heavy snow up there.  I know snow sometimes doesn't capture too well on video, but I'm looking forward to seeing some footage from there during the height of the storm!

[GRR]

[StLweatherjunkie]

25 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

In due time, lol.    It's gonna be awesome to experience the high winds and heavy snow up there.  I know snow sometimes doesn't capture too well on video, but I'm looking forward to seeing some footage from there during the height of the storm!

I could be at work, but I'll try to get something on here. 

The snow this afternoon could be super fluff, this RAP sounding is impressive and it's starting today!

Edited December 21, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

Timing the winter storm, impact and snowfall expectations
https://fox59.com/weather/timing-the-winter-storm-impact-and-snowfall-expectations/?fbclid=IwAR1KcRHsE5nhpwzOvJrqyfbafVkJyErkW22HJoUZOmnc0obCgXZOhIiJbqg

WTE-SUNNY-3.webp

[Ingyball]

Welp the 500 mb trough never shifted south with the surface low and that's what's screwing us here. Everything else looks perfect here. Storm track, 700 and 850mb frontogenesis, the position of the jet streak at 250mb. The trough at 500mb being displaced north keeps the mid-levels dry for too long and that's enough to kill the storm here.

[bigben89]

In terms of snow, from how the models handled things, even this week, this is shaping up to be a dud.

[Hiramite]

Many of us makes comments regarding the weather in our own backyard. Thus, it would be helpful to the rest of us that your location is included in your profile description. Granted the location isn't readily apparent on phones, but it still can be obtained by clicking on one's profile pic.  If you don't want to include your nearest city, consider something like Central OH or NW Indiana, etc.  I think I know where @Indygirl is located. 😃

I don't know if every device is the same, but here is how my two devices are set-up:

Laptop: Click on your name then 'Profile' then 'Account Settings' in top right of your background photo.

Phone: Click on the menu bar symbol, 'Account' and 'Profile' then the "cog" in top right of your background photo.

Thanks!

(View of my laptop, "Account Settings" doesn't show up on my phone)

[easton229]

5 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Many of us makes comments regarding the weather in our own backyard. Thus, it would be helpful to the rest of us that your location is included in your profile description. Granted the location isn't readily apparent on phones, but it still can be obtained by clicking on one's profile pic.  If you don't want to include your nearest city, consider something like Central OH or NW Indiana, etc.  I think I know where @Indygirl is located. 😃

I don't know if every device is the same, but here is how my two devices are set-up:

Laptop: Click on your name then 'Profile' then 'Account Settings' in top right of your background photo.

Phone: Click on the menu bar symbol, 'Account' and 'Profile' then the "cog" in top right of your background photo.

Thanks!

(View of my laptop, "Account Settings" doesn't show up on my phone)

I think I complain about SEMI enough to know where I’m from 😂

[StLweatherjunkie]

1 minute ago, Ingyball said:

Welp the 500 mb trough never shifted south with the surface low and that's what's screwing us here. Everything else looks perfect here. Storm track, 700 and 850mb frontogenesis, the position of the jet streak at 250mb. The trough at 500mb being displaced north keeps the mid-levels dry for too long and that's enough to kill the storm here.

I think the storm track is actually the issue for farther south. This is the elusive triple-phase situation with 1.) The low over Green Bay/Lake Superior being the arctic low (drives cold air south of the low), 2.) the low over the Chesapeake the subtropical Atlantic low (brings deep moisture), and 3.) the low on the OH/IN border being the Pacific/Gulf low (brings strong winds that deliver cold air). As long as these pieces are separate neither #2 nor #3 will have what it takes for widespread heavy snow and #1 is primarily producing fluffy snow instead of 'heavy' snow so the impacts aren't the same. 

[Hiramite]

0z Low Party Tracker.

As one would expect, not much change from 12z but the Euro did make a little jog east.  This is probably the last installment for this storm, I hope it was beneficial.   Time for work on the SREFs.

Edit:  I see I didn't note the GFS color in the key....maybe some subconscious way of throwing out that solution, lol.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Hiramite

[ak9971]

Long range HRRR starting to come in range. Showing heavier 10:1s for at least Ohio and the band does look wider. Based on the totals and time period looks like 1”/hr is what is spitting out but we will see once it gets a little closer range wise. Also, no warm nose in Central Ohio 😂

Edited December 21, 2022 by ak9971

[Hiramite]

Updated wide view snow maps for the "eastern" locals.

@IngyballDoes the Central NWS produce regional maps?  They don't show up for me.

 

 

[RobB]

 

 

[StLweatherjunkie]

8 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Updated wide view snow maps for the "eastern" locals.

@IngyballDoes the Central NWS produce regional maps?  They don't show up for me.

 

 

I'm not sure. There's always this one, but it's not pretty like yours:

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie

[Hiramite]

This is my first thought for SREF locations.  Anybody else wants to be included or removed for that matter, lol.

For those that might not be familiar, more info to follow, but only locations with a blue dot shown at the bottom of this link can be included.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=CLE

I'll start with either the 9Z or 15Z.  3Z sucks.

I just noticed Newark isn't on the list. That must be when @FortySixAnd32 refused to pay his bill.  I guess I can add it, it being Christmas...

 

[FortySixAnd32]

2 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

This is my first thought for SREF locations.  Anybody else wants to be included or removed for that matter, lol.

For those that might not be familiar, more info to follow, but only locations with a blue dot shown at the bottom of this link can be included.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=CLE

I'll start with either the 9Z or 15Z.  3Z sucks.

I just noticed Newark isn't on the list. That must be when @FortySixAnd32 refused to pay his bill.  I guess I can add it, it being Christmas...

 

See, what had happened was.........