Bradjl2009 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Columbusbuckeye said: I believe it was Jim Ganahl that said that the cause of this with low pressure systems in Ohio is that a warm nose of air gets pulled up the Scioto river valley from the south and is stubborn to exit once the low passes east. Take it FWIW, but it makes sense. I've definitely seen that happen before here in Pittsburgh, but this isn't going to be one of those cases where the temp will struggle to keep falling once it gets to around freezing, so I have doubts it will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, NWsnowhio said: If nothing else, it is neat to see that solid pink line dump trucking across the state on the RAP. No doubt. It’s going to be fun to see everyone’s footage of that band as it passes. I have a hunch that it will cure a lot of the agony of the past few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said: I've definitely seen that happen before here in Pittsburgh, but this isn't going to be one of those cases where the temp will struggle to keep falling once it gets to around freezing, so I have doubts it will happen. Agreed. I think the models are overdoing it as well. I don’t see it happening with how fast the temps will crash. Edited December 21, 2022 by Columbusbuckeye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said: Agreed. I think the models are overdoing it as well. I don’t see it happening with how fast the temps will crash. At this point, I feel like a general 2 to 4 with the line could be a good bet. Some places a little less, others maybe a little more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 My poor Christmas inflatables....im not sure what to do. They'll pool up with water and once we flash freeze it'll lock them up for good. The only way to counter that is to leave them blown up which has a -100% chance of me being that dumb with the winds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SOMOSnow Posted December 21, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 0z UKMET. 👀🤢😳 I don't have the words for this. Edited December 21, 2022 by SOMOSnow 1 1 2 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Without seeing the track what the hell did the Ukie do. Literally has the most snow south of me…. And by most I really don’t mean alot lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Bradjl2009 said: At this point, I feel like a general 2 to 4 with the line could be a good bet. Some places a little less, others maybe a little more. That’s in line with my thoughts. I’ve been telling friends/family that 2-5 is likely for most of Central Ohio, with most being on the lower end. The roads will be treacherous on Friday morning. If we can get any bonus wraparound snow, which is being advertised on the GFS, some spots will end up with a WSW type snow event. Winds could push this to blizzard criteria for the northern 2/3 of Ohio on Friday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said: I can see this happening if the front is almost like a squall line. I remember an arctic front passing by a few years ago that laid down 2-3 inches IMBY within 2 hours. Ironically, it went through right around midnight, much like this one will. There was one in March a few years ago in the early morning that dropped 4-5" of wet snow really quick with some thunder so it certainly isn't out of the question. Edited December 21, 2022 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) Just your casual 77mb pressure gradient: EDIT: Ensemble mean also showing 33 mb pressure fall over 24 hours, which is nuts! Edited December 21, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said: That’s in line with my thoughts. I’ve been telling friends/family that 2-5 is likely for most of Central Ohio, with most being on the lower end. The roads will be treacherous on Friday morning. If we can get any bonus wraparound snow, which is being advertised on the GFS, some spots will end up with a WSW type snow event. Winds could push this to blizzard criteria for the northern 2/3 of Ohio on Friday morning. I'm leaning to thinking between 2 to 3 for Pittsburgh as well, with a bust being less than an inch, and a surprise being more than 4 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Just your casual 77mb pressure gradient: You guys are going to get rocked up your way, man. Cheers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: 0z UKMET. 👀🤢😳 I don't have the words for this. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 24 minutes ago, Snow____ said: Without seeing the track what the hell did the Ukie do. Literally has the most snow south of me…. And by most I really don’t mean alot lol I didn't actually look at that run in detail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said: You guys are going to get rocked up your way, man. Cheers! Thanks man, it's definitely nice peace of mind knowing that I'm probably going to be pushing double-digit snow amounts no matter what. The wind potential is pretty concerning too, glad I'm not too close to the shoreline ... Now for an unsolicited tangent about how snow amounts are still hard to forecast because it depends on wind direction and how much synoptic support there is. Those depend on low location and strength just like everywhere else in the country. I'm always worried about potential for lake effect winds to be too NWerly, which is the prevailing winter-time wind direction. Snow can shut off pretty hard in Marquette once winds go more westerly than 340 degrees. It's pretty rough knowing that 40 miles to the west or east got way more snow than you did from 9/10 storms. The unicorn "classic" storms with winds from around 340° to 70° during synoptic snow can put on a show though. Edited December 21, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Watch DTX put out WWA or nothing at all lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Time to start watching short-range models on features like this. See if there are subtle changes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 forget the Weather Channel..I’m calling this the Running Up That Hill storm..because it’s been an uphill battle to figure this thing out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Ensemble mean gfs Oz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, NeXrad said: forget the Weather Channel..I’m calling this the Running Up That Hill storm..because it’s been an uphill battle to figure this thing out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) We issued a freezing fog advisory tonight. I don’t remember the last time I’ve had a freezing fog event. Just got off work… when I went outside there was dense fog but the winds were blowing at 15-20 mph. I hadn’t been in fog when it’s windy before but it’s pretty cool. My car also had a bit of ice or frost on my windshield. Thankfully didn’t have to scrape. Oh, and how about this busy forecast? High of 57 tomorrow, low of 2. Casual 55 degree gap. Edited December 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) Euro is off and running, prepared for heartbreak. Although I expect more of the same, we shall see. Edited December 21, 2022 by ak9971 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) I think the models are underestimating how much snow we can get out of this. I believe this situation is so extreme the models can't handle it. Imo Edited December 21, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 21 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Thanks man, it's definitely nice peace of mind knowing that I'm probably going to be pushing double-digit snow amounts no matter what. The wind potential is pretty concerning too, glad I'm not too close to the shoreline ... Now for an unsolicited tangent about how snow amounts are still hard to forecast because it depends on wind direction and how much synoptic support there is. Those depend on low location and strength just like everywhere else in the country. I'm always worried about potential for lake effect winds to be too NWerly, which is the prevailing winter-time wind direction. Snow can shut off pretty hard in Marquette once winds go more westerly than 340 degrees. It's pretty rough knowing that 40 miles to the west or east got way more snow than you did from 9/10 storms. The unicorn "classic" storms with winds from around 340° to 70° during synoptic snow can put on a show though. Here's a good example of radically different outcomes for MBY. Definitely hoping for the FV3 to pan out over the 3km NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, Grace said: Time to start watching short-range models on features like this. See if there are subtle changes. Definitely looks like its trending sharper. The shortwave across KS/OK is definitely looking more healthy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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