JayPSU Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: It's back again, another model another run haha. Same warm nose I’m sorry, I’m really skeptical of that...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Central Illinois said: Let’s see what the rest of the suite says. Because I would l take what it has at 10:1 let alone the 6 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, JayPSU said: I’m sorry, I’m really skeptical of that...lol It's absolutely mind blowing, I want to know so bad 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: GFS is the new NAM, and not in any sort of endearing way lol Never know. Complex weather event. Strange things can happen, but more than likely you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: GFS is the new NAM, and not in any sort of endearing way lol Never know. Complex weather event. Strange things can happen, but more than likely you are right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: It's absolutely mind blowing, I want to know so bad If it shakes out like that I would be surprised. It has to be something wrong with the soundings there or something because it’s every model and that’s just odd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 0z GFS kuchera. Improved imby and many on the board. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: I would imagine a lot of those weird snow holes are due to the GFS not able to smoothly progress the rain/snow line as it should. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said: I would imagine a lot of those weird snow holes are due to the GFS not able to smoothly progress the rain/snow line as it should. That actually makes a lot of sense. Usually see that a lot with the short models… looking at those every hour on the hour for lost our storms checking for a change over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Minus the mysterious Scioto Sliver of Silence, I'm pretty sure most of us Ohioans would take the GFS and run with it at this point. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Widespread 40-45+ gusts for everyone. Closer to the lakes numbers go up even more. Have to think with that squal that all the models are showing it would entertain some blizzard warnings even with the lack of big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Snow____ said: That actually makes a lot of sense. Usually see that a lot with the short models… looking at those every hour on the hour for lost our storms checking for a change over time. At this point, it seems pretty likely how this will pan out, and it's just going to take waiting to see how the squall line develops and if there's anything that dries it out or delays the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The cmc makes an abrupt exit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The cmc makes an abrupt exit Was thinking the same thing. That blows. It was looking promising and then it just escaped stage right. The RAP was pretty nice albeit it’s long range… putting my eggs in the GFS, RAP basket sounds gross. RAP kind of got it out of here quickly as well though. No telling what it would do after hour 51 but it looks to be moving right along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The cmc makes an abrupt exit Yeah that Low literally slid right through my backyard without as much as a "hello", but somehow left 6.8 high-ratio inches behind. 🤔 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) This looks like it could be some really high ratio snow tomorrow night with the very light sub-DGZ winds and good lift extending into a deep DGZ and good seeder-feeder going on too. IMHO, this checks all the boxes for high SLRs Edited December 21, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Pretty crazy how most models are showing a squall line type feature at the changeover. I don’t see how anyone would get more than an inch or two from that at best. Have to be one hell of a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, NWOhioChaser said: I don’t see how anyone would get more than an inch or two from that at best. Have to be one hell of a thump. 6 hour rap snow associated with the front, not buying it but definitely willing see if other models jump on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 GEFS Mean snowfall is disgusting lol…. Side note I have no idea what’s up with the lack of data bordering all the lakes, first time I’ve noticed it on the mean maps. Also does it in all the ensemble runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 6 hour rap snow associated with the front, not buying it but definitely willing see if other models jump on I can see this happening if the front is almost like a squall line. I remember an arctic front passing by a few years ago that laid down 2-3 inches IMBY within 2 hours. Ironically, it went through right around midnight, much like this one will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, ak9971 said: GEFS Mean snowfall is disgusting lol…. Side note I have no idea what’s up with the lack of data bordering all the lakes, first time I’ve noticed it on the mean maps. Also does it in all the ensemble runs. Lower resolution, I do believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, ak9971 said: GEFS Mean snowfall is disgusting lol…. Side note I have no idea what’s up with the lack of data bordering all the lakes, first time I’ve noticed it on the mean maps. Also does it in all the ensemble runs. Setup playing nightmare on each of the algos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 (edited) 35 minutes ago, JayPSU said: I’m sorry, I’m really skeptical of that...lol I believe it was Jim Ganahl that said that the cause of this with Winter low pressure systems in Central Ohio is that a warm nose of air gets pulled up the Scioto river valley from the south and is stubborn to exit once the low passes east. Take it FWIW, but it makes sense. Edited December 21, 2022 by Columbusbuckeye 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said: I can see this happening if the front is almost like a squall line. I remember an arctic front passing by a few years ago that laid down 2-3 inches IMBY within 2 hours. Ironically, it went through right around midnight, much like this one will. If nothing else, it is neat to see that solid pink line dump trucking across the state on the RAP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, RobB said: Lower resolution, I do believe. I think it's a combination of lower resolution and an attempt to zero snow out over the lakes, because snow doesn't accumulate on water. No matter what, it's great at making some ugly pixelated maps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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