Moderators Hiramite Posted December 16, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) We're within range of WPC's Winter Weather maps. Issued about midnight last night. There's gonna be lots of changes early on. So, FWIW... Edited December 16, 2022 by Hiramite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, CrazyINwx said: 11 of 20 are complete misses here, yuck 32 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Woke up at 5a and couldn’t sleep.. and actually got excited to check models. 😆 🤣 so did I, the first of the year and first "well that was entirely disappointing why did I do that" of the year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 FWIW, the KMA is also in general agreement with the clipper type setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted December 16, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 16, 2022 43 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 11 of 20 are complete misses here, yuck 🤣 so did I, the first of the year and first "well that was entirely disappointing why did I do that" of the year I don't know. I kind of like where we sit now. That could be my "glass half full" versus your "this is the reality that I have known and seen in Ohio and it sucks" mindset. LOL. As long as some flakes are flying and it isn't warm and gross and raining.. I'll be happy. Now would I like a repeat of a few years ago? Uh, duh. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 16, 2022 29 minutes ago, cperry29 said: The GFS may be an outlier right now, but it's the one that makes the most sense physically. I don't expect the ensembles to catch on to the movement of the cold air in the Plains. That's what's forcing the storm south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Slight trend towards the UK with these models so far. The ull ahead is one key player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 16, 2022 I'm getting big time Christmas 2004 vibes with this setup and I think we could see something similar. However I could see both storms shifted a bit further south and east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 16, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 16, 2022 Aside from having a storm cut to one's west, this week's cold overnight lows and near average daytime highs should either freeze the ground or put a serious chill in it prior to whatever snow falls. I'm not a fan of snow on mushy ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Ouch, the 6z EPS has taken on full blown UK. Those of us under that lakes system which is the purely dominant system in this scenario would torch (relatively speaking) out ahead of the front. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted December 16, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Ouch, the 6z EPS has taken on full blown UK. Those of us under that lakes system which is the purely dominant system in this scenario would torch (relatively speaking) out ahead of the front. No. That's all. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 16, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Hiramite said: Aside from having a storm cut to one's west, 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Ouch, the 6z EPS has taken on full blown UK. Those of us under that lakes system which is the purely dominant system in this scenario would torch (relatively speaking) out ahead of the front. Well, you couldn't have timed that more perfectly. 😜 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Ouch, the 6z EPS has taken on full blown UK. Those of us under that lakes system which is the purely dominant system in this scenario would torch (relatively speaking) out ahead of the front. As compared to the 00z, I'm not sure what it would take for the southern stream to become dominant over the north, but we need it here. There does appear to be a few more ensembles with the Texas low scenario compared to 00z, but certainly the minority Edited December 16, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 16, 2022 Lol not sure why I'm having so many problems quoting on mobile, but anyways I like to see those surface lows in Oklahoma. Would expect them farther south, but it does mean something closer to the GFS is starting to be picked up. Quite the flip on the EPS tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Aside from having a storm cut to one's west The only thing worse than having a storm cut to your west is having a storm completely cut to your southeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 16, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Pros3lyte said: The only thing worse than having a storm cut to your west is having a storm completely cut to your southeast. I would rather have the far SE option that keeps me cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 16, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ingyball said: not sure why I'm having so many problems quoting on mobile Maybe post this in the "Let's Fix Thing" thread to see if anyone else is having a problem or knows of a fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Still such stark differences in the arrival of the artic air. Models need more time. It’s useless to pay too much attention to micro features. Like Bernie says, “don’t get caught up in the wash.” If I was patient, I’d wait 3 days and then peek at models, but where’s the fun in that?! 🤪 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: As compared to the 00z, I'm not sure what it would take for the southern stream to become dominant over the north, but we need it here. There does appear to be a few more ensembles with the Texas low scenario compared to 00z, but certainly the minority Not to keep beating a dead horse, but this is exactly what Bernie was alluding to…he anticipated over the next few days there would be serious “windshield wiper” effect with the models, going from an extreme eastern scenario (coastal) to an extreme western scenario (above). He believes the end result is in the middle. And I hope he’s right lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said: Not to keep beating a dead horse, but this is exactly what Bernie was alluding to…he anticipated over the next few days there would be serious “windshield wiper” effect with the models, going from an extreme eastern scenario (coastal) to an extreme western scenario (above). He believes the end result is in the middle. And I hope he’s right lol. lets hope, my "extra" concern lies in that fact models suddenly grabbed on to this idea the last 12 hours or so while the UK really had it all along. Now that's not to say they cant all switch back together....but I felt more confident/comfortable when models were in utter disagreement with each other. I hope he's right as well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just curious to see how it all plays out. Conventional wisdom tells me the lakes and OV will probably see a nuisance type system (1-3"?) with a stronger system into the northeast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 11 of 20 are complete misses here, yuck 🤣 so did I, the first of the year and first "well that was entirely disappointing why did I do that" of the year A lot of spread. I believe the gfs is too far east though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Despite the massive spread in the GEFS, the "mean" is still coming through as a miller B 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: Just curious to see how it all plays out. Conventional wisdom tells me the lakes and OV will probably see a nuisance type system (1-3"?) with a stronger system into the northeast. I think as the system draws closer the worry is going to shift to if it tracks too far west than too far to the east. Edited December 16, 2022 by SNOWBOB11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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