December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Wnwniner]

6 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

Elevation? I live in Pickaway to your south. Models do this all the time my area. Sometimes it makes a difference, sometimes not. There can be a few hundred feet difference as shown on the map.

Meant to quote @Ohiobuckeye45 but you get the point.

Really cool map...is that available publicly?

[Bradjl2009]

26 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

Lol the GFS ensembles now give us more snow than Chicago.

[Pghsnow]

Just now, Bradjl2009 said:

Lol the GFS ensembles now give us more snow than Chicago.

GEFS always loves our area. Too bad they rarely manifest. GFS on an island here. Im not buying it. 

[Central Illinois]

4 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said:

Lol the GFS ensembles now give us more snow than Chicago.

Everything going against the GFS no models showing that huge hole in Illinois most have 3-7” in that area when you throw ratios in

Edited December 20, 2022 by Central Illinois

[SOMOSnow]

2 hours ago, ak9971 said:

Note these are kuchera ratios, 10:1 is about 3” in your area on both the Euro and EPS

Thanks yes I'm familiar with kuchera and I post them often from weatherbell but I don't have your model data. I post the Euro etc but totals end up of course slightly different 

[Hiramite]

Catching up....

First call NWS snow maps are out!!

CLE has issued theirs. Huge difference between High End & Low End.

Here's the big picture across the region.

[cperry29]

11 minutes ago, Wnwniner said:

Really cool map...is that available publicly?

Yeah I just did a quick Google search. 
 

https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-k757/Ohio/?center=40.22922%2C-82.68311&zoom=8&popup=41.00478%2C-83.75427

[Hiramite]

3 hours ago, easton229 said:

Anyone know the record for a wind chill?

Quote

There are only three times in U.S. records that the wind chill on the currently used scale appears to have hit -100°F. On January 16, 2004, New Hampshire’s Mount Washington Observatory, notorious for its harsh winter conditions, recorded a temperature of -41.8 degrees and a wind of 87.4 mph, leading to a wind chill of -102.6°F.

“It is unlikely that a lower wind chill has been measured at a long-term station in the U.S.,” says climatologist Brian Brettschneider, who covered U.S. and Canadian wind chill records in a blog post.

An automated weather station at Howard Pass, Alaska, recorded a temperature of -47.5°F with sustained winds of 53.7 mph at 10 p.m. on February 21, 2013. The resulting wind chill would have been minus -99.8°F. However, the winds were measured at a height of 10 feet, rather than the standard 33 feet, so the actual wind chill was more likely minus -105°F, according to Brettschneider.

Hourly temperature, wind, and wind chill at McGrath, Alaska, on Jan 27, 1989. the -100°F wind chill was observed at 6 a.m. @AlaskaWx @IARC_Alaska @weather_history 4/3 pic.twitter.com/JhrdHyeiN2

— Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49) January 27, 2019

Looking beyond such remote outposts, the lowest wind chill confirmed at a U.S. town or city (adjusting for the currently used wind chill scale) is -100°F at McGrath, Alaska, at 6 am AKST on January 27, 1989. The air temperature was -72°F at the time, and the wind speed was 7 mph. The extreme cold in McGrath was produced by an air mass that pushed from Siberia across North America over the next few days, leading to an intense cold wave in early February 1989 that extended all the way to Mexico City.

Interestingly, the wind chill of -100°F degrees in McGrath wouldn’t have even qualified for an NWS wind chill advisory, Brettschneider noted. This is because the wind was only 7 mph at the time, and NWS offices in Alaska do not issue wind chill advisories or warnings unless the wind is expected to be sustained at 15 mph or more for at least three hours.

 

[NWsnowhio]

WTOL just put out their forecast in a video update. Looks about right at this point I suppose, as long as ratios and lake enhancement work out. 
 

[Central Illinois]

2 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Catching up....

First call NWS snow maps are out!!

CLE has issued theirs. Huge difference between High End & Low End.

Here's the big picture across the region.

Anyway you could post this a little more west

Edited December 20, 2022 by Central Illinois

[StormfanaticInd]

The shear size of the wind field with this beast is incredible 

[SOMOSnow]

Local TV station map at noon. Looks reasonable. At moment, I'd be thrilled with 3 to 5. Models have trended down a bit so I could see them dropping this to 2 to 4 for part of this or 2 to 5.

[Hiramite]

3 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

Yeah I just did a quick Google search. 
 

https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-k757/Ohio/?center=40.22922%2C-82.68311&zoom=8&popup=41.00478%2C-83.75427

This map is pretty cool.  Easier to see the differences in elevation.

[Central Illinois]

1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The shear size of the wind field with this beast is incredible 

That will be the biggest factor by far anywhere getting snow good luck measuring lol

[cperry29]

Just now, Hiramite said:

This map is pretty cool.  Easier to see the differences in elevation.

Yeah that’s even better! Thx! I suspect having such a stout cold front, elevation won’t play a big role in elevation this time around, despite what the models show. (If that’s the cause) 

[Hiramite]

4 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

Anyway you could post this a little more west

For some reason the Regional map of the NWS Central sites aren't loading.   I'll keep checking.

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

23 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

Elevation? I live in Pickaway to your south. Models do this all the time my area. Sometimes it makes a difference, sometimes not. There can be a few hundred feet difference as shown on the map.

Meant to quote @Ohiobuckeye45 but you get the point.

I definitely buy this, but my problem with the elevation theory is its not really a factor this go round, pretty much everyone is going from 35 to 10 in a matter of minutes so I doubt the extra 5 minutes maybe of changeover Bellefontaine gets over Columbus is meaningful to the tune of nothing vs. 2-3''. However like you said just because its modeled like that doesn't make it valid. I JUST NEED TO KNOW lol

[Hiramite]

Just now, cperry29 said:

Yeah that’s even better! Thx! I suspect having such a stout cold front, elevation won’t play a big role in elevation this time around, despite what the models show. (If that’s the cause) 

I thought/wondered the same thing.

[CIWeather]

Just now, Hiramite said:

For some reason the Regional map of the NWS Central sites aren't loading.   I'll keep checking.

 

ILX put a hex on it 😂

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[cperry29]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I definitely buy this, but my problem with the elevation theory is its not really a factor this go round, pretty much everyone is going from 35 to 10 in a matter of minutes so I doubt the extra 5 minutes maybe of changeover Bellefontaine gets over Columbus is meaningful to the tune of nothing vs. 2-3''. However like you said just because its modeled like that doesn't make it valid. I JUST NEED TO KNOW lol

We answered at the same time lol. I don’t know for sure. Best to consult a pro lol. That’s all I can come up with. I kept wondering why our area kept getting the shaft on models and finally looked into one day. Topography made sense. 

[Hiramite]

3 minutes ago, CIWeather said:

ILX put a hex on it 😂

I found a Statewide...

[cperry29]

I guess he hasn’t given up on the secondary low idea for Ohio.

 

[MidMichiganWx]

WPC outlook - don't think I saw anything post this yet. 

[Snow____]

2 minutes ago, MidMichiganWx said:

WPC outlook - don't think I saw anything post this yet. 

https://media0.giphy.com/media/ToMjGpKniGqRNLGBrhu/200.gif