December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[NWOhioChaser]

24 minutes ago, ryanmkay said:

So any chance at ANY decent snow for Toledo requires another SE shift and quick changeover, otherwise its a cold windy, 1-2" nusiance.

Yep.

BlizzardBill still sticking to 2-4 though. Mentioning the high snow ratios is what’s our saving grace

Edited December 20, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[Central Illinois]

Blizzard Warnings starting to be posted out west

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

First Blizzard Warnings have been hoisted (Minnesota)

 

2 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

Blizzard Warnings starting to be posted out west

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[MidMichiganWx]

DTX must be putting together one hell of a write-up. 

[BuckeyeGal]

ILN..

Quote

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain will be crossing the area on Thursday, with greater coverage and amounts occurring in the morning in eastern counties as low level jet translates eastwards and weakens. Guidance is suggesting that there could be some drying, or at least much lower coverage, from Thursday afternoon until the arctic front crosses the region Thursday night. 12Z models have continued a trend of being ever so slightly faster with the progression of the front. Still looking at a rain rapidly changing to snow scenario with temperatures plummeting and winds increasing substantially once the front moves through. Appears that there could be a decent band of heavier snow that follows the front. That is expected to be short-lived, although there are still come uncertainties how quickly drying punches into the area, which affects how much snow ends up falling. At this point, thinking that snowfall amounts will be in the advisory range. However, with the falling temperatures, strong winds, and resultant very cold wind chills, there will likely be travel impacts across the entire area. It is more a question of to what degree. Have opted to go with a longer lead time winter storm watch for where the juxtaposition of these conditions likely will have the greatest impact. Obviously, there are many details still to be resolved. It is quite clear that it will be very cold. Wind chill headlines, probably within advisory range, will be needed Friday night and Saturday. Those may even extend into Saturday night and Sunday although winds will be decreasing as high pressure builds into the region by that point.

 

[easton229]

Per usual, DTX last to issue any type of watches. I’m assuming it’s gonna be a watch for most of the area with WWA for Macomb, Wayne, and Monroe counties. Wind will prolly be the only reason for a watch everywhere.

[snowlover2]

[ak9971]

18Z ICON FWIW. 

[MidMichiganWx]

3 minutes ago, easton229 said:

Per usual, DTX last to issue any type of watches. I’m assuming it’s gonna be a watch for most of the area with WWA for Macomb, Wayne, and Monroe counties. Wind will prolly be the only reason for a watch everywhere.

I think it will be watches for the entire area no doubt; even 2-4" or 3-6" of blowing snow will be a huge mess. 

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

Blizzard warnings going up.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

reposting this but with the tidbit underneath folks on here and from the WPC right up yesterday have been talking about. I've ALWAYS been a proponent of kuchera but I think this scenario is definitely the wrong way to go but will be able to keep this in mind during future windy events....but this is next level winds we're not accustomed to around here

 

I'm still using the 10:1 maps and applying 15:1.

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

The ECM maps for Kuchera were absolutely absurd.....in some cases turning .05 QPF in to like 3'' lol

[CIWeather]

This is from LSX AFD...would imply a Blizzard Warning could be issued for areas close to St. Louis...

A very rare combination of accumulating snowfall (generally 2-4") combined with very strong northwest winds (20-30 mph sustained, 40- 50 mph gusts) are expected to yield near-blizzard conditions for a 3- 6 hour period at any given location on Thursday. Travel will be extremely hazardous if not impossible during the height of the falling (and blowing) snow. While snowfall amounts will not be nearly as substantial, peak impacts during that 4-6 hour period of moderate to heavy snowfall may rival those experienced January 5-6, 2014 (in particular when you include the extremely dangerous cold/wind chills).

[Harberr62]

….on to the (hopefully) over performing clipper on Monday….

[Wnwniner]

6 minutes ago, Harberr62 said:

….on to the (hopefully) over performing clipper on Monday….

Honestly I think I'm ready for a storm that isn't much to get excited about turn to a decent event 48 hours out than the usual of track a "big" storm for a week that really fizzles out as it gets closer.

[Pghsnow]

50 minutes ago, junior said:

Could be worse, atleast here we only had two GFS runs show anything significant days ago. Elsewhere its been worse.

 

The wind and cold are relatively unchanged.

 

Also I'm glad we ain't getting anything significant here. My house doesn't need anymore delays in building.

Remember those days when just about everyone had a jackpot run... Those were the days my friend...Seems so long ago... 🙂 

[Central Illinois]

15 minutes ago, CIWeather said:

This is from LSX AFD...would imply a Blizzard Warning could be issued for areas close to St. Louis...

A very rare combination of accumulating snowfall (generally 2-4") combined with very strong northwest winds (20-30 mph sustained, 40- 50 mph gusts) are expected to yield near-blizzard conditions for a 3- 6 hour period at any given location on Thursday. Travel will be extremely hazardous if not impossible during the height of the falling (and blowing) snow. While snowfall amounts will not be nearly as substantial, peak impacts during that 4-6 hour period of moderate to heavy snowfall may rival those experienced January 5-6, 2014 (in particular when you include the extremely dangerous cold/wind chills).

wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade to a blizzard warning along and north of 70

[Pros3lyte]

DTX with the weird write up…

Feels like they kinda scaled back their attitude a bit toward this storm. Looks like they landed on a 3-6” spread overall?

 

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 408 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022 .DISCUSSION... The well-advertised winter system is still on track Thursday night into Saturday. - Accumulating snow arrives late Thursday night into Friday morning, with potential for a rapid decline in conditions as temperatures plummet. - Strong winds develop Friday afternoon and evening, leading to significant blowing of falling snow and reduction of visibility. This may lead to brief intervals of near blizzard conditions. - Potential for significant travel disruptions during the peak holiday travel period. - Bitterly cold wind chill will continue into the upcoming Christmas holiday weekend. Potential power outages resulting from strong winds could exacerbate impacts from the very cold conditions. No meaningful weather concerns over next the 48 hours, as attention remains fixated on the pending late week system. Northern stream wave glancing across the northern great lakes this evening establishes a benign, dry cold frontal passage locally under modest height falls. Upper heights then build temporarily into Wednesday atop low level ridging. Deep layer stability leaves simply some pesky cloud Wednesday within a resident thermal profile edged on the colder side of average. Exit region of a strengthening polar jet anchoring a substantial packet of pv just off the pacific northwest late this afternoon. Consistent message over several days now at the large scale for significant height falls to commence with increasing trough amplitude, as a southeastward burgeoning arctic dome sweeps into the plains. Downstream warm sector environment generally absent of meaningful moist isentropic ascent with trajectory lending to an eastward deflection of the warm conveyor. Signal for simply light returns of qpf for the daylight period Thursday within a pattern of modest warm air advection. Marginal daylight temperatures afford a mix of rain/melting snow this period. Higher magnitude forcing arrives Thursday night, responding to a combination of increasing mass convergence and eventually frontal ascent as deep sfc cyclogenesis commences on the advancing front. Widespread precipitation this period, although transition timing of ptype from rain to snow still carries some uncertainty. Noting a trend toward slightly cooler temperatures within the boundary layer carried forward from a subset of 00z model guidance, this suggests a profile either susceptible to a transition toward snow as higher precip rates materialize and/or simply as a result of faster timing of the inbound arctic front. In either case, this likely owes to the smaller scale adjustments still ongoing at this stage in both the magnitude/location of low development and propagation speed relative to the local area. Ultimately, this may offer a more meaningful window for accumulating snow on the front end of this event overnight into Friday morning. Additional refinement on that detail likely. Arctic air firmly entrenched by the early Friday period under strengthening west-southwest flow within the immediate wake of the deepening/exiting low. As noted above, differences in handling the behavior of the surface low will have ramifications on eventual positioning, magnitude and duration of deformation forcing to supplement earlier snowfall, as well as placement of the highest magnitude wind gust potential. A higher resolution look at the governing mass fields offered by the 12z NAM and GEM now offer a different vantage point, with a more progressive exit and coincident slower deepening process as the reflection lifts into Ontario. Impressive underlying background gradient flow will exist regardless to capitalize on growing mixed layer depth and ongoing caa. Projected high end wind magnitude within the lower levels portends a solid, extended period of frequent gusts in excess of 45-50 mph starting midday Friday and lasting well into Friday night. Steady downstream lake moisture flux will maintain a high coverage of wind blown snow showers during the back half of Friday and into Friday night. Despite the arctic thermal profile, snow ratio often held in check within in this environment as stronger winds lead to more fragmented/tiny flakes. In terms of possible snowfall totals, measured approach at this stage given a predominant signal within the ENS ensemble solution space for mean totals to generally arrive somewhere within a 3 to 6 inch range (highest north). Higher magnitude cold with blustery conditions will define the Christmas weekend period. Wind gusts 30 to 40 mph still common Saturday, translating into wind chill at/below zero through the day. Sufficient overlake convective depth within this airmass to sustain some degree of downstream moisture flux during the first half of the weekend. Wind chill again within the -10 to 5 degree range Christmas Day.

[Snow____]

I’m trying to hold off until 0z but I’m about ready to write off hoping for any appreciable snow and just look forward to seeing the drastic drop in temps and the winds. 

[easton229]

6 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

DTX with the weird write up…

Feels like they kinda scaled back their attitude a bit toward this storm. Looks like they landed on a 3-6” spread overall?

 

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 408 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022 .DISCUSSION... The well-advertised winter system is still on track Thursday night into Saturday. - Accumulating snow arrives late Thursday night into Friday morning, with potential for a rapid decline in conditions as temperatures plummet. - Strong winds develop Friday afternoon and evening, leading to significant blowing of falling snow and reduction of visibility. This may lead to brief intervals of near blizzard conditions. - Potential for significant travel disruptions during the peak holiday travel period. - Bitterly cold wind chill will continue into the upcoming Christmas holiday weekend. Potential power outages resulting from strong winds could exacerbate impacts from the very cold conditions. No meaningful weather concerns over next the 48 hours, as attention remains fixated on the pending late week system. Northern stream wave glancing across the northern great lakes this evening establishes a benign, dry cold frontal passage locally under modest height falls. Upper heights then build temporarily into Wednesday atop low level ridging. Deep layer stability leaves simply some pesky cloud Wednesday within a resident thermal profile edged on the colder side of average. Exit region of a strengthening polar jet anchoring a substantial packet of pv just off the pacific northwest late this afternoon. Consistent message over several days now at the large scale for significant height falls to commence with increasing trough amplitude, as a southeastward burgeoning arctic dome sweeps into the plains. Downstream warm sector environment generally absent of meaningful moist isentropic ascent with trajectory lending to an eastward deflection of the warm conveyor. Signal for simply light returns of qpf for the daylight period Thursday within a pattern of modest warm air advection. Marginal daylight temperatures afford a mix of rain/melting snow this period. Higher magnitude forcing arrives Thursday night, responding to a combination of increasing mass convergence and eventually frontal ascent as deep sfc cyclogenesis commences on the advancing front. Widespread precipitation this period, although transition timing of ptype from rain to snow still carries some uncertainty. Noting a trend toward slightly cooler temperatures within the boundary layer carried forward from a subset of 00z model guidance, this suggests a profile either susceptible to a transition toward snow as higher precip rates materialize and/or simply as a result of faster timing of the inbound arctic front. In either case, this likely owes to the smaller scale adjustments still ongoing at this stage in both the magnitude/location of low development and propagation speed relative to the local area. Ultimately, this may offer a more meaningful window for accumulating snow on the front end of this event overnight into Friday morning. Additional refinement on that detail likely. Arctic air firmly entrenched by the early Friday period under strengthening west-southwest flow within the immediate wake of the deepening/exiting low. As noted above, differences in handling the behavior of the surface low will have ramifications on eventual positioning, magnitude and duration of deformation forcing to supplement earlier snowfall, as well as placement of the highest magnitude wind gust potential. A higher resolution look at the governing mass fields offered by the 12z NAM and GEM now offer a different vantage point, with a more progressive exit and coincident slower deepening process as the reflection lifts into Ontario. Impressive underlying background gradient flow will exist regardless to capitalize on growing mixed layer depth and ongoing caa. Projected high end wind magnitude within the lower levels portends a solid, extended period of frequent gusts in excess of 45-50 mph starting midday Friday and lasting well into Friday night. Steady downstream lake moisture flux will maintain a high coverage of wind blown snow showers during the back half of Friday and into Friday night. Despite the arctic thermal profile, snow ratio often held in check within in this environment as stronger winds lead to more fragmented/tiny flakes. In terms of possible snowfall totals, measured approach at this stage given a predominant signal within the ENS ensemble solution space for mean totals to generally arrive somewhere within a 3 to 6 inch range (highest north). Higher magnitude cold with blustery conditions will define the Christmas weekend period. Wind gusts 30 to 40 mph still common Saturday, translating into wind chill at/below zero through the day. Sufficient overlake convective depth within this airmass to sustain some degree of downstream moisture flux during the first half of the weekend. Wind chill again within the -10 to 5 degree range Christmas Day.

Sounds like they’re on board with 10:1 ratios too

[Pros3lyte]

1 minute ago, easton229 said:

Sounds like they’re on board with 10:1 ratios too

Meanwhile GRR says 8-17.

[Central Illinois]

18z NBM at 10:1

NWS Lincoln has been going with this model the past few days as their model of choice

Edited December 20, 2022 by Central Illinois

[snowlover2]

[BuckeyeGal]

3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

I seriously hope that doesn't play out for Franklin County. What the crap.