SOMOSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 hours ago, ak9971 said: Not exactly sure where you’re at but that seems to be a bit of an exaggeration… GFS has a large swath of 4”+ with 40 mph gusts for an extended period of time throughout IN/MI/W OH…. Could you share the part of map showing southern Missouri and kansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: We haven't had our outrageous 18z NAM moment yet with tracking storm. It this going to be the one?😆 if the 12z wasnt it, I'd hate to see which one was 😖 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Could you share the part of map showing southern Missouri and kansas? Note these are kuchera ratios, 10:1 is about 3” in your area on both the Euro and EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 NAM is similar to 12z through 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 ILN issues a WSW for north of I-70 in the Miami Valley. Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington OH 311 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022 INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-052-210415- /O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0004.221223T0200Z-221223T2200Z/ Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Miami-Champaign- Including the cities of Richmond, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, and Urbana 311 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Combination of snow, wind, blowing snow, and very low wind chill possible. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Wind chill could be as low as 30 below. * WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute as well as holiday travel. Strong winds could cause tree damage. The cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will drop sharply in the matter of a few hours during Thursday night, rapidly falling well below freezing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: ILN issues a WSW for north of I-70 in the Miami Valley. "Up to 2" possible" Ugh, I know the wind/blowing/flash freeze is going to be insane, but a 2" nuisance snow total is going to be a letdown if this system does indeed turn out to be as dry as the latest runs are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: "Up to 2" possible" Ugh, I know the wind/blowing/flash freeze is going to be insane, but a 2" nuisance snow total is going to be a letdown if this system does indeed turn out to be as dry as the latest runs are showing. It really is crazy how this is playing out. Things can certainly change, but time isn't our biggest friend now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 ILX just updated my WSWatch to 3-5", still saying Blizzard conditions possible. Areas just off to my east in IL looking at 4-6." 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: God, if this is a 1-3” nuisance event for many I’d cry for everyone here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) I feel like I am being NAMmed right now. Seams south and east at 57 IMO. Edit: Seems maybe a touch drier as well. Edited December 20, 2022 by beaver56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 So does the kuchera map show us expected snow amounts while factoring in expected ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, NWOhioChaser said: God, if this is a 1-3” nuisance event for many I’d cry for everyone here if this was any random storm in January or February it would be a total letdown but at least it's falling right before Xmas and after last years blow torch any amount of snow is better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted December 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Pros3lyte said: So does the kuchera map show us expected snow amounts while factoring in expected ratios? Yep, though it isn't perfect. 🙂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, NWOhioChaser said: God, if this is a 1-3” nuisance event for many I’d cry for everyone here Meh. Given the wind impacts and that we're close to Christmas, a crippling snowstorm for a lot of people would be terrible, especially if there are power outages. I think most are satisfied with a couple inches, officially having it be a white Christmas, and then we can start looking forward to bigger systems. January will probably be a rollercoaster to start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) Could be worse, atleast here we only had two GFS runs show anything significant days ago. Elsewhere its been worse. The wind and cold are relatively unchanged. Also I'm glad we ain't getting anything significant here. My house doesn't need anymore delays in building. Edited December 20, 2022 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The unicorn wraparound snowfall that looked like it might save those in the OV on the east side of the storm track has pretty much disappeared on recent runs. Looks like the best/only shot at accumulations will be hinging on a quick changeover before moisture exits on Friday morning. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, MesoscaleBanding said: The unicorn wraparound snowfall that looked like it might save those in the OV on the east side of the storm track has pretty much disappeared on recent runs. Looks like the best/only shot at accumulations will be hinging on a quick changeover before moisture exits on Friday morning. Wow. I was literally JUST posting this, the GFS is the only model left with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanmkay Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 So any chance at ANY decent snow for Toledo requires another SE shift and quick changeover, otherwise its a cold windy, 1-2" nusiance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I was literally JUST posting this, the GFS is the only model left with it Doesn't help that the SLP has been in a hurry to rocket up into Canada on recent runs as well. Bring back the runs where it kind of curled around the lower GLs all day Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 On 12/19/2022 at 11:15 AM, junior said: I'd laugh if this were to amplify later into Canada and we're left with scraps. Oops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 First Blizzard Warnings have been hoisted (Minnesota) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 RGEM is penny for penny dead on the 12z, maybe some very minor QPF adjustments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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