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December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


Ohiobuckeye45

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18 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Toledo is going to be saved solely on the fetch off Michigan. Otherwise, we’d be looking at an inch at most. But yeah, honestly, my expectations were low from this storm. Just give some flakes falling, and ground mostly covered and I’m good.

Dan Smith on 13abc Noon telecast had the state of MI and NOH pretty much split E to W with an 8+ to the W and a 4+ to the E.  He stressed that he felt the 4+ was on the conservative side.  Just an FYI.....

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1 minute ago, Columbusbuckeye said:

Pretty unimpressive run for most of Ohio.  

Unless we get to be on the west side of the track, we won’t see more than a dusting.  And while I suppose that’s still possible, I highly doubt it.

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2 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said:

Pretty unimpressive run for most of Ohio.  

Honestly feels like the evolution of most other storms over the last few years for Ohio... a week out, a signal for a big storm...5 days out, in the bullseye, 3 days out coming to terms with a moderate at best event, and then day of, getting a nice cold rain.

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1 minute ago, easton229 said:

Yea that’s where a 50 mile shift in either direction can mean a foot or a few inches.

2-8" in my county alone. A ~25-50 mile shift SE would make a huge difference, which this far out, is very possible. 

Edited by ryanmkay
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25 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

Lead forecaster out of NWS Louisville. He’s obviously not a Wxsphere member lol 

He’s a highly regarded met at the local NWS here in Louisville I’d believe his take over a lot of others especially the local tv Mets 

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12Z Low Party Tracker

To my eyes, tracks pretty much the same as compared to 0z. Using NW OH as a reference point, here’s a comparison of pressures 0z vs 12z.

GFS: 991 vs 991

Canadian: 993 vs 997

Euro:  987 vs 990

That’s it for me for awhile, I hope to be back on later tonight.

 

C327411B-69F9-4FFE-9A54-655FF096090E.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

12Z Low Party Tracker

To my eyes, tracks pretty much the same as compared to 0z. Using NW OH as a reference point, here’s a comparison of pressures 0z vs 12z.

GFS: 991 vs 991

Canadian: 993 vs 997

Euro:  987 vs 990

That’s it for me for awhile, I hope to be back on later tonight.

 

C327411B-69F9-4FFE-9A54-655FF096090E.jpeg

Crazy that once they hit sub-1000, they appear to take almost take the same path. 

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15 minutes ago, NeXrad said:

He’s a highly regarded met at the local NWS here in Louisville I’d believe his take over a lot of others especially the local tv Mets 

Yep, this is why I said i'm ignoring models until Wednesday. Paying attention to all these runs when you're just going to get shifts west and then back east over and over gives you no information, really need to be within 24 hours of the event to get much usefulness out of deterministic models for a set in stone track, and even then, who knows lol. 

Edited by Neoncyclone
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21 minutes ago, ncinthenext3 said:

Dan Smith on 13abc Noon telecast had the state of MI and NOH pretty much split E to W with an 8+ to the W and a 4+ to the E.  He stressed that he felt the 4+ was on the conservative side.  Just an FYI.....

Thanks I didn’t see that. If cold air filters in at the right time, we could be looking at some great ratios. So maybe we can see more. That is…if we have a quicker switchover to snow.

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10 minutes ago, Michelle said:

Will a shift west lower our winds?

winds seem to be about the only constant right now, the only thing that would lower winds is a much weaker system which does not appear likely. Any weaker solutions would only be a few hours delayed before it bombs out to the north of us. Strong winds can be far reaching away from the low itself so even if it doesnt bomb out until Canada, impacts are still felt

Edited by Ohiobuckeye45
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