December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[snowlover2]

Sorry if this was posted at some point but this is from ILN morning update.

Quote

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A significant winter storm is poised to affect the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley with multiple hazards as we head into the end of the
workweek into the Christmas holiday weekend.

But before we delve into the upcoming storm system, we will first
talk about the immediate long term for Wednesday night into
Thursday. A lead s/wv and and associated isentropic lift will bring
a round of mainly rain to the region late Wednesday night into
Thursday. Temperatures will bottom out in the evening Wednesday,
then slowly rise overnight. Depending how fast the pcpn arrives
versus warming surface temperatures will dictate if any p-type is of
a wintry mix. As of now, it appears a mix p-type is a low risk
probability. The highest chance for pcpn with this feature will
occur on Thursday, with the highest PoPs over our eastern CWFA. Lows
Wednesday night will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Highs on Thursday will range from the lower to upper 40s.

As has been advertised, a significant upper level low will be
deepening as it digs southeast from the central Plains eastward into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. This process
will result in surface cyclogenesis with the low pressure deepening
from southern/south central Indiana at 00Z Friday to a position
north of Lake Ontario 00Z Saturday. WAA ahead of the cold front,
Arctic in nature, will change rain over to a period of snow behind
the front Thursday night. Although snow amounts at this time
look to be anywhere from 0.50" to perhaps up to 1.50", the rain
change over to snow with very rapidly falling temperatures from
above freezing to below freezing may result in potential flash
freeze conditions. This will be aided with the development of
strong winds in the wake of the front which will be gusting
anywhere from 40 mph south to at least 55 mph far north late
Wednesday night. The rapidly falling temperatures and winds will
create dangerously low wind chill readings. This first batch of
snow will likely be limited in blowing potential due to it
initially starting out in a wet state, becoming crusted over
quickly due to the quick falling temperatures. Lows by Friday
morning will range from near 0 west to near 10 east.

On Friday, wrap around moisture and lift perhaps aided by the 700 mb
low track will bring snow showers, scattered snow south and
most numerous north. There remains uncertainty how much snow
will fall given the available QPF and very likely SLRs of 15:1
to 20:1. The current forecast calls for about 0.25" south of the
Ohio River to possibly as much as 2" in west central Ohio.
These amounts, and the continued very strong winds (40 mph south
to 55 mph+ north) will be the key as to how widespread the
blowing snow will be. Right now, the best chance of the region
to see the worst conditions would be east central Indiana
northeast into parts of central Ohio (the strongest winds and
the best chance to have appreciable snow to blow). Temperatures
will show little rise during the day, so dangerously low wind
chills will continue. Much discussion has been done with the
Weather Prediction Center and our surrounding WFOs as to what to
do about potential headlines at this juncture. There`s no
question that there will be a need for winter headlines (snow,
icy roads, winds, wind chills) at some point which will at least
meet advisories level. It is whether any of our area,
particularly east central Indiana northeast into central Ohio
will get the needed snow to trigger a Winter Storm Watch or
Warning which would not be based on meeting snow amount
criteria, but meeting an impact criteria, from the blowing snow
and low visibility. Given that this is the 7th period and
confidence is not high enough on snow amounts, have opted to
hold off on a Watch for this forecast package. However, will
continue to highlight all the hazards in our HWO product.

As we head into Friday night into Saturday, snow showers will taper
off as the center of the main upper low shifts north and east. It
will still remain very cold and windy. Lows Friday night will range
from the single digits east to near 5 below west. Highs on Saturday
will range from the mid teens east to the single digits west. Wind
chill readings will mostly certainly reach advisory criteria all
locations Friday into Friday night. Some values will come close to
Warning criteria in east central Indiana and west central Ohio (25
below).

Winds will begin to taper down as we head into Christmas Eve night
into Christmas Day Sunday as Arctic high pressure builds east into
the Ohio Valley. It will continue to be very cold with lows in the
single digits to a few degrees below zero Christmas morning to highs
10 to 20 on Christmas day with skies eventually becoming partly
cloudy.

A fast moving, but weak system, may affect the region by Monday.
Will have a low chance of light snow. Highs will rebound into the
mid and upper 20s.

 

 

[SNOWBOB11]

GFS and CMC really picking up on some heavy lake bands off erie into NY state.

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by SNOWBOB11

[cperry29]

06z NAV 🤔

It’s usually more progressive so maybe it’s just doing it’s east-based thing. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by cperry29

[SNOWBOB11]

1 minute ago, cperry29 said:

06z NAV 🤔

Lol. What planet is the NAVGEM on?

[FortySixAnd32]

15 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

Just about any location south of MI is a toss up at this point. 

Talk about getting the shaft!!!!

[Harberr62]

Glorified cold front through the OV. 🤣

[Hiramite]

15 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

GFS and CMC really picking up on some heavy lake bands off erie into NY state.

Yepper.  And that's where I expect them to be with a low positioned to the north of those two lakes.  I don't see Erie contributing much to Ohio's snowfall except the immediate lakeshore.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Hiramite

[cperry29]

1 minute ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Lol. What planet is the NAVGEM on?

This is kinda how it rolls. Usually the other models fall to the west of NAV’s track. Now, that I look at more, doesn’t seem so unusual. 

[easton229]

17 minutes ago, MidMichiganWx said:

Funny how DTX and GRR are always last to issue any watches lol

I feel like there’s a lot of in office fighting there cause the AFD’s always say we’ll let the next shift issue watches or something along those lines lol

[Pghsnow]

I found the GEFS very intewresting especially for later on the 24th. The models all seem to have snow wrapped up by late Friday, early Saturday but looking at GEFS almost all have snow even late into Saturday.

 

 

 

[StLweatherjunkie]

15 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

GFS and CMC really picking up on some heavy lake bands off erie into NY state.

 

Off Ontario too! It's happened once so I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again.

[Hassaywx1223]

Just now, Pghsnow said:

I found the GEFS very intewresting especially for later on the 24th. The models all seem to have snow wrapped up by late Friday, early Saturday but looking at GEFS almost all have snow even late into Saturday.

 

 

 

Lake enhancement with a big low is a hell of a thing hard for some models outside of the short ranges 24 hours from the event to pick it up I’ve learned living by the lakes my whole life 

[StLweatherjunkie]

3 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

I found the GEFS very intewresting especially for later on the 24th. The models all seem to have snow wrapped up by late Friday, early Saturday but looking at GEFS almost all have snow even late into Saturday.

 

 

 

Just a word of caution that if the GFS is showing something completely different than everything else, it's not necessarily onto something. Maybe it is right and everything else is wrong, but who knows the odds of that 

[Pghsnow]

5 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

Lake enhancement with a big low is a hell of a thing hard for some models outside of the short ranges 24 hours from the event to pick it up I’ve learned living by the lakes my whole life 

True but the GEFS are run at a lower resolution so why would they all pick this up? Even the GFS didn't show this. The point is, I think we can expect to see totals increase across Ohio and WPa going forward. I guess we will have to see how GEPS and EPS show this.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Pghsnow

[snowlover2]

12z Euro has started.

[Mulaman984]

Lead forecaster out of NWS Louisville. He’s obviously not a Wxsphere member lol 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Mulaman984

[NWOhioChaser]

43 minutes ago, ncinthenext3 said:

Some of the Toledo mets from WTOL have been saying "It's the wind" that will be the real feature of this storm.  Even a few inches would make some nice drifts with 40+ MPH extended winds.  

Toledo is going to be saved solely on the fetch off Michigan. Otherwise, we’d be looking at an inch at most. But yeah, honestly, my expectations were low from this storm. Just give some flakes falling, and ground mostly covered and I’m good.

[ceciliaky]

2 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

Lead forecaster out of NWS Louisville. He’s obviously not a Wxsphere member lol 

probably also not a fan of egotistical louisville mets. LOLOL

[easton229]

5 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

Lead forecaster out of NWS Louisville. He’s obviously not a Wxsphere member lol 

Living and dying by each run is the way to go though!

[easton229]

Euro seems a touch SE so far and 1mb stronger through Hr 57.

[ryanmkay]

5 minutes ago, easton229 said:

Living and dying by each run is the way to go though!

Exactly. My expectations from the onset of this storm were low in asking for a 2-4" white Christmas and it appears that will happen. Didn't ask for the 50-60mph prolonged wind gusts however. But the following of the model runs has made this one fun. Go from excited to heartbreak and sucked right back in. Wouldn't have it any other way.

Edited December 20, 2022 by ryanmkay

[Ohiobuckeye45]

trough is already not as diggy

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

weaker and drier 

[cperry29]

11 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

Lead forecaster out of NWS Louisville. He’s obviously not a Wxsphere member lol 

One could debate that ensembles haven’t done so well with this storm either lol

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

weaker and drier 

well not at 72, ill rephrase that as weaker and drier until it moves north of I-80