FortySixAnd32 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, StLweatherjunkie said: The whole GEFS roller coaster ride (so far) for funzies: It's like the storm was coked up at Studio54 for the whole ride.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, snowlover2 said: 12z Ukie 12z PUkie.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, snowlover2 said: 12z Ukie Yep. The writing is on the wall, my Ohio friends! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, JayPSU said: Yep. The writing is on the wall, my Ohio friends! Perhaps but I’m not sure it’s finished shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, JayPSU said: I’ve lived in central Ohio for 20 years now. If you have to depend on both lake effect snow and backend snow to get that…you’re screwed. 😊. Particularly lake effect. this is not false, however....we've had over performing lake enhanced events before and if there was ever going to be a time to have it again, it would be with a 60 MPH wind off of both lake MI and Erie (based on low positioning) both lakes are also ice free for now Edited December 20, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) Even if the models don’t show any precip, we usually get some lake enhanced showery stuff when the low is over Michigan and into Canada. 2020 Xmas was my favorite one. Edited December 20, 2022 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, JayPSU said: I’ve lived in central Ohio for 20 years now. If you have to depend on both lake effect snow and backend snow to get that…you’re screwed. 😊. Particularly lake effect. I don’t disagree, but before backend snows there’s still appreciable snow in areas of IN/MI/W. Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Perhaps but I’m not sure it’s finished shifting. Shifting is an issue, but the lack of moisture that keeps being modeled is becoming a bigger story. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: this is not false, however....we've had over performing lake enhanced events before and if there was ever going to be a time to have it again, it would be with a 60 MPH wind off of both lake MI and Erie (based on low positioning) For lake effect or lake enhanced to over-perform you really need low level convergence and there could be some. Unless there's some extra oomph to squeeze moisture out, it'll probably be unimpressive. Either way, such high winds means tiny, fractured flakes that struggle to stack up 🙁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: GEFS I’ll take that and run as fast as I can screaming “no take backs” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: For lake effect or lake enhanced to over-perform you really need low level convergence and there could be some. Unless there's some extra oomph to squeeze moisture out, it'll probably be unimpressive. Either way, such high winds means tiny, fractured flakes that struggle to stack up 🙁 Maybe but the fact its being picked up on by global models before we get the meso models is intriguing. I'm not over here looking to be in Orchard Park lol. I'm looking for .25-.30 frozen QPF over the course of the event to add up to 3-4'' of snow Edited December 20, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncinthenext3 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Some of the Toledo mets from WTOL have been saying "It's the wind" that will be the real feature of this storm. Even a few inches would make some nice drifts with 40+ MPH extended winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Maybe but the fact its being picked up on by global models before we get the meso models is intriguing. I'm not over here looking to be in Orchard Park lol. I'm looking for .25-.30 frozen QPF over the course of the event to add up to 3-4'' of snow Orchard park* Overland is in Kansas and judging by @Ingyball report, I don't want to be there either haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, ncinthenext3 said: Some of the Toledo mets from WTOL have been saying "It's the wind" that will be the real feature of this storm. Even a few inches would make some nice drifts with 40+ MPH extended winds. I agree. It and the cold are the more dangerous side of this system..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 This will in all likelihood be the only chance the whole first month of winter to see anything...so I guess this is where my expectations have come down off a cliff.. (still in bargaining phase) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) Just an observation about the 12z UK - It shows ZERO qpf in the entire state of Ohio between 12z Fri & 0z Sat - That doesn't seem legit. IMHO, these models are still struggling mightily with this system (and probably for good reason as this is a fairly unique setup) Edited December 20, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just about any location south of MI is a toss up at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: GEFS Noticeable increase in totals in more eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Just an observation about the 12z UK - It shows ZERO qpf in the entire state of Ohio between 12z Fri & 0z Sat - That doesn't seem legit. IMHO, these models are still struggling mightily with this system (and probably for good reason as this is a fairly unique setup) I've heard many times that the UK can be an ok model with seeing where a storm is going, but is trash with precip amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Funny how DTX and GRR are always last to issue any watches lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, RobB said: Regardless of how this one shakes out, it's shaping up to be a hell of a storm for someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Ross Ellet just posted on FB that he expects snow to start about six hours sooner now in the Toledo area with the recent shift in track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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