Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 17, 2022 So.. I've been thinking about this since the 12z runs. I wanted to put together a map with the different scenarios. The 18z GFS and GEFS looked good for the interior. It's early, and I wouldn't rule out coastal areas either. If the trough digs like the GFS depicts, the developing low should be at least an Apps Runner (Shown as the blue line on the eastern envelope).. and I would argue that the GEFS is showing a low that comes into the Tennessee Valley and fades into the Ohio Valley, with a transfer to the coast. That's a lot like the January 2016 storm, only without the confluence keeping it suppressed (would be more satisfactory for @PA road DAWG). Now.. the blue line on the western envelope is more what the GDPS is showing. That would indicate a more flat (progressive) trajectory, less dig. At the moment, I'm not buying the GDPS western route. The +PNA and -NAO do not agree with that.. and I sense that it's struggling with the injection of arctic air. I'm also not buying the OTS or benchmark routes of previous guidance. I like what the GEFS is showing.. and I like the transfer idea. I don't have access to the CIPS analogs; however, I'm curious what those show. If not a transfer, I like something running east of the apps, inland.. oddly, maybe similar to what that Korean model was showing. Whatever happens.. I think it's big. Synoptics suggest that's the case. Anyways.. all IMO. Curious what the meteorologists on here are thinking. Spoiler 18z GFS 18z GFS (500 mb) 18z GEFS 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Penn State said: So.. I've been thinking about this since the 12z runs. I wanted to put together a map with the different scenarios. The 18z GFS and GEFS looked good for the interior. It's early, and I wouldn't rule out coastal areas either. If the trough digs like the GFS depicts, the developing low should be at least an Apps Runner (Shown as the blue line on the eastern envelope).. and I would argue that the GEFS is showing a low that comes into the Tennessee Valley and fades into the Ohio Valley, with a transfer to the coast. That's a lot like the January 2016 storm, only without the confluence keeping it suppressed (would be more satisfactory for @PA road DAWG). Now.. the blue line on the western envelope is more what the GDPS is showing. That would indicate a more flat (progressive) trajectory, less dig. At the moment, I'm not buying the GDPS western route. The +PNA and -NAO do not agree with that.. and I sense that it's struggling with the injection of arctic air. I'm also not buying the OTS or benchmark routes of previous guidance. I like what the GEFS is showing.. and I like the transfer idea. I don't have access to the CIPS analogs; however, I'm curious what those show. If not a transfer, I like something running east of the apps, inland.. oddly, maybe similar to what that Korean model was showing. Whatever happens.. I think it's big. Synoptics suggest that's the case. Anyways.. all IMO. Curious what the meteorologists on here are thinking. Reveal hidden contents 18z GFS 18z GFS (500 mb) 18z GEFS This is about the only thing you can take to the bank since the turn of the millennium. Whatever the deal may be with climate change, the power and moisture of storms now is on another level. It's always go big time now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) Glad to see everyone is back! (Almost everyone) Edited December 17, 2022 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Never like seeing it all go towards the cutter idea. However, it is very early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 54 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Glad to see everyone is back! (Almost everyone) Because I can, no other reason. 🤔😂🤣 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Remember; we never want to see too much amplification early on in the game. Amped storms all have a tendency to travel poleward/cut 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, PA road DAWG said: Remember; we never want to see too much amplification early on in the game. Amped storms all have a tendency to travel poleward/cut Curious if the old adage of Snow follows Snow is in play here? With daytime highs below freezing for the upcoming week will the existing Snowpack influence the placement, if you will, of the incoming system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 hours ago, LongIslanGurlllll said: Well I for one am sooo glad to see you guys again! 💜💜💜 CHEERS! Good weather info, enough sarcasm and snark to make sure you double check before you post, what more could you want? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Lazman said: Curious if the old adage of Snow follows Snow is in play here? With daytime highs below freezing for the upcoming week will the existing Snowpack influence the placement, if you will, of the incoming system? Usually yes. But with this monster amped storms they tend to have a mind of their own and do what they want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Lazman said: Because I can, no other reason. 🤔😂🤣 I saw he checked in at the old site. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, PA road DAWG said: Usually yes. But with this monster amped storms they tend to have a mind of their own and do what they want. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Glad to see everyone is back! (Almost everyone) Lots of familiar names over here. Seems there’s been a migration and have just found out about it. edit: tho I’m just a lurker since the accuweather days (they never let me get an account set up!) Edited December 17, 2022 by rmo09001 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslanGurlllll Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Lazman said: Because I can, no other reason. 🤔😂🤣 I cannot explain how much this made me laugh one night …. I also will not fess up to how much Tito’s was involved 🤦🏼♀️😂😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 hours ago, LongIslanGurlllll said: 🙃🙃 Glad I didn’t disappoint! I have my Tito’s in hand as well 🍸 FYI…. I did ask the other side a months ago to point me in the right direction and I didn’t get very far til now It feels like there’s a parallel universe going on right now with this and another site, sort of like the spider man movie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillyfan Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 It feels like there’s a parallel universe going on right now with this and another site, sort of like the spider man movie https://media2.giphy.com/media/bcrOR2stk6tKIxqPOZ/200.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 36 minutes ago, LongIslanGurlllll said: I cannot explain how much this made me laugh one night …. I also will not fess up to how much Tito’s was involved 🤦🏼♀️😂😂 snobal posted in other forum just now. is he not here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslanGurlllll Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, mikeysed said: snobal posted in other forum just now. is he not here? I just saw that 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) I had an opportunity to tune into Bernie’s Twitter Live. For those interested.. he is targeting a track as far west as about Indianapolis and as far east as I-95, but not east of I-95. He did mention that folks as far east as Harrisburg are still in the game.. and as far west as St. Louis and Chicago. I had the sense that places like Columbus and Pittsburgh were the target zone. I did throw in a question about a transfer, and he specifically said that it wasn’t out of the question. Take it FWIW.. Let’s see what the 00z runs can throw at us. Edited December 17, 2022 by Penn State 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 0z ICOn pregame looks a bit flatter. (It was a raging GLC at 12z) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Good vibes so far on all of the 0z models. Hope GFS doesn't rain on our parade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said: She 'gon cut, face it, we CANT have something this good on Christmas, it just doesnt happen 😉 (Some real hardcore scientific analysis there 😉 ) Relying on that old "reverse psychology" standby. Hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Looked lime an I95 track this go around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillyfan Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Looked lime an I95 track this go around. Fire hose of rain on that run too, not what we need around here after all the rain yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 We will know monday where this is giing apps or coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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