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December 22-24, 2022 | Winter Storm


Penn State

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I don't pretend to understand all these features interacting and whatnot like a lot of you do. But I do have a bell ringing in my head right now a little bit. And it's saying remember all the times the  expected track moved way west then corrected way back east in the final couple days. Or vice versa. 

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17 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I don't pretend to understand all these features interacting and whatnot like a lot of you do. But I do have a bell ringing in my head right now a little bit. And it's saying remember all the times the  expected track moved way west then corrected way back east in the final couple days. Or vice versa. 

ringing in your head or bats in the belfry?  The "corrected way back east" is usually just wishful thinking or the cry of I-95'ers.  Sigh.  

Edited by Miller A
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2 minutes ago, Miller A said:

ringing in your head or bats in the belfry?  The "corrected way back east" is usually just wishful thinking.  Sigh.  

I mean, correcting east usually means ots. But I'm thinking a feature that is still unknown and unseen on the models coming into the mix in a helpful way but probably you're right. 

 

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3 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

12z eps for interior PA.  Maybe a little front end thump followed by.... something. 🤷‍♂️

Screenshot_20221216-153407_Chrome.jpg

Less "thump" up here, other than a handful of members.

Screenshot_20221216-153824.thumb.png.fe6b314163cdfec54563514095f040cd.png

Operational with like 5" of rain though, that would be nice iyn frozen ground.

Screenshot_20221216-153915.thumb.png.d34225b62e340bb333b971ee8c08918c.png

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2 hours ago, 1816 said:

If the next ecmfw starts to look more like the last gfs then the internet is going to melt down. 

Reminds me of the joke: what do you call it when a snowman has a temper tantrum? A meltdown.

Snow is not a regular occurrence in my location so my motto is, “expect the least but hope for the best.” It helps in reducing disappointment and by chance, if this storm can come through late next week I’ll be as giddy as a 7 year old on Christmas morning…only a day or two earlier.

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Sterling tidbit from this afternoon discussion.

 

Broad, highly anomalous ridging will build into the Arctic, sending a deep upper low south into the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley by Thursday. The collision of this cold upper low with warmer temperatures near the Gulf Stream will likely generate a strong area of low pressure in the vicinity of the East Coast. Details in track, strength, and timing remain uncertain, and overall confidence remains low; however, it should be noted that most long range guidance has been unusually consistent in hinting at a potential wintry precipitation scenario late next week.

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