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December 22-24, 2022 | Winter Storm


Penn State

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Cold air just fills on in as it bombs out.  Otherwise that track is crap in the I95 corridor.  

gfs_T850_us_fh168-198.thumb.gif.41898a142d489c75aa0ead82f02315c9.gif

This is ALOT of snow over Danbury.  Dark oranges and the skew is nearly perfect, great omega in the DGZ  The only worry is the wind blows the dendrites apart.  That and that the storm ends up being a cutter on tomorrows 12z run.  Someone please post the 12z ensembles.  I'm out the rest of the afternoon. 

refcmp.us_ne.thumb.png.3792500bfcbbb9ab05a1c8931cd2a311.png

gfs_2022121612_186_41.5--73_25.thumb.png.10f7c31754027997e5fd9a764cb2b156.png

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10 minutes ago, Chris2333 said:

Damn it you said the forbidden words, pack it up it’s over.

image.gif.1f33ff3716a85c20e5e5b510129a572a.gif

I think it needs to be said three times before it gets officially jinxed....I prefer this method of jinxing anyway....it's more pretty

Screen Shot 2022-12-16 at 12.09.09 PM.png

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My wife, daughter and I are heading to Gatlinburg, TN for the holidays, leaving on 12/23. This could change the plans a bit.... Figures a good snowstorm would show up when I'm either not around or supposed to be traveling. I'll be watching closely this coming week for sure!

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Fwiw cmc and icon are inland runners. Setup wise id favor inland runner over ots if either of those 2 were to occur.. with the way the energy is coming in and the upper environment.. still long ways to go. We have a storm to track with a +week of time. This is was dreams are made of. 

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4 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

I think it needs to be said three times before it gets officially jinxed....I prefer this method of jinxing anyway....it's more pretty

Screen Shot 2022-12-16 at 12.09.09 PM.png

I have never seen so much orange on these maps as I have this year.

Season total = 5.5"

Not verifying very well lol

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5 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

I think it needs to be said three times before it gets officially jinxed....I prefer this method of jinxing anyway....it's more pretty

Screen Shot 2022-12-16 at 12.09.09 PM.png

image.gif.6ab6adfad805d2a7e22cdcc35a0707b1.gif

I had another gif lined up with a curse in it but didn’t know if anybody had baby ears so this will do for now lol 

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25 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Cold air just fills on in as it bombs out.  Otherwise that track is crap in the I95 corridor.  

gfs_T850_us_fh168-198.thumb.gif.41898a142d489c75aa0ead82f02315c9.gif

This is ALOT of snow over Danbury.  Dark oranges and the skew is nearly perfect, great omega in the DGZ  The only worry is the wind blows the dendrites apart.  That and that the storm ends up being a cutter on tomorrows 12z run.  Someone please post the 12z ensembles.  I'm out the rest of the afternoon. 

refcmp.us_ne.thumb.png.3792500bfcbbb9ab05a1c8931cd2a311.png

gfs_2022121612_186_41.5--73_25.thumb.png.10f7c31754027997e5fd9a764cb2b156.png

Here ya go

72427EB3-B170-41DF-A8F6-B4CAD5881770.gif

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Digging into 12z models, looks like hour 90 is where GFS starts to diverge from UKie and CMC. It tears off a piece of energy and sends it across the northern plains.

979983350_ScreenShot2022-12-16at12_35_51PM.thumb.png.73c6183c73cd91aa708ddfabe16c0bde.png

The other models don't tear this piece off and instead of keeping heights across the EC suppressed by this feature, they are allowed to free rise.

1876826956_ScreenShot2022-12-16at12_39_38PM.thumb.png.ef83ab4dbddbcd0727264342b10604f5.png

Edited by telejunkie
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