Admin Sentinel Posted December 16, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 16, 2022 Few things 1) IT'S EARLY. We're still a good bit away from any solution materializing. Watch the Macro scale features for now. Micro features come later. 2) The PNA is looking much more favorable for the EC currently. 3) Confluence and the NAO are increasingly bearing down. Again, favorable for the EC. 4) Timing is everything, from both macro and micro scale POV. 5) We track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 16, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 16, 2022 So.. I was really worried about the energy off the SE coast scooting away too fast on this run.. but it doesn’t look to have made much of a difference so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted December 16, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Penn State said: So.. I was really worried about the energy off the SE coast scooting away too fast on this run.. but it doesn’t look to have made much of a difference so far. PNA sharpens just in time. Restricts the OTS solution, verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 16, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 16, 2022 00z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 16, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 16, 2022 00z GDPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 16, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS vs. GDPS 500mb @ HR 180 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 16, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 16, 2022 GEFS Trend.. 2 thoughts. 1) There’s a tug to the SW 2) The overhead high pressure is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 16, 2022 I truly do worry about this potential. I wanna say im leaning a little more toward a just miss for most of the area. I really wish to be wrong and will keep watching the potential of course. First thoughts this far out are we have a similar storm setup to January 2-6th, 2018 blizzard. With the block still somewhat around during this timeframe it will keep the potential of an inland runner fairly low but just gotta watch how intense that cold is coming in the front range/ upper midwest. Still many days but we are starting to see signs of the pattern relaxing via long range as we close out the month just something to take note this far out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) The other option I see and this will be a kick in the gut for many but a very similar setup to how this system sort of went down with solid snows through much of the interior leaving the coast with scraps and rain. It depends on the angle of how things dive off the ridge into the west/SW. A cold punch like this aimed into the deep south offers up potential for an apps runner. Still many days away im hopeful but we should have a much better look into things by the end of the weekend. Edited December 16, 2022 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertop Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Spoiler 6z 12/23 GEFS Ensemble Members Spoiler 12z 12/23 GEFS Ensemble Members Spoiler 18z GEFS Ensemble Members Nice look this far out. Taking its time, too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Within range of WPC probs. 7am thu-7am Fri 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 0z Euro has a storm as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 16, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 16, 2022 WPC Forecast (Day 7) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) Extended Forecast Discussion. Amended NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 237 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Dec 19 2022 - 12Z Fri Dec 23 2022 ***Bitterly cold temperatures likely to settle over the northern Plains for much of next week*** ***Potential for East Coast winter storm to develop late in the week*** ...Synoptic Overview... A significant pattern change is expected to evolved across much of the continental U.S. next week as a pronounced upper trough builds in across the eastern half of the nation, accompanied by an impressive arctic airmass settling southward across the Plains and then advecting eastward, with widespread subzero temperatures likely for the north-central states. This is mainly in response to a building West Coast upper ridge (+PNA pattern) and a negative arctic oscillation (-AO pattern) that allows arctic airmasses to drop southward from Canada. Things get interesting towards the end of the week as a potential East Coast storm develops, and the details of this will be dependent upon the phasing of both southern and northern stream shortwave energy, and when this takes place. If the low develops close enough to the coast, impactful rain and snow could materialize from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 00Z model guidance suite has a good overall depiction of the weather pattern on Monday, with the main differences observed with the timing of the upper trough/closed low across southwestern Canada and its arrival over the far northern Plains. By Tuesday, the southern stream trough over Texas is more amplified with the GFS and slightly faster with the ECMWF, and the GFS remains slightly more amplified going through Wednesday. Going into Wednesday night, the second lobe from a portion of the polar vortex starts dropping south across the Upper Midwest, and the axis of the trough is farther east with the CMC and ECMWF, whereas the GFS is sharper and slower. This will have implications on the eventual development of the coastal low near the East Coast, with the GFS having a more offshore track. The WPC fronts/pressures was primarily based on a 40% ECMWF/20% GFS/20% CMC/20% ECENS blend for Monday and Tuesday, and then the proportion of the ECENS and GEFS means were increased going through the remainder of the week to account for the increasing model uncertainty. Future forecast updates will provide additional clarity on the eventual East Coast storm evolution and potential impacts. Weather/Hazard Highlights... The main weather story that will make weather headlines next week will be the massive expanse of frigid temperatures from Montana/Northern Plains to the Midwest and even the Ohio Valley. A couple of reinforcing cold fronts will usher in the coldest air of the season by a considerable margin with the expectation of widespread subzero readings for overnight lows from the Northern Rockies to the central/northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, with some lows approaching -30 degrees across portions of Montana and North Dakota! Although the frigid airmass will modify as it reaches the Ohio Valley and Mid-South, it will still be quite cold with widespread 0s and 10s for overnight lows by the end of the week, and this very cold weather is expected to have some staying power as the Climate Prediction Center outlook indicates high probabilities of below average temperatures beyond this forecast period. The potential for an East Coast winter storm late in the forecast period also bears close monitoring. The overall upper level pattern is generally supportive of a winter storm developing in this region, although model differences and run-to-run variability limit confidence on the expected placement of heaviest snow. A low track just off the coast would favor significant snowfall for the Interstate 95 corridor, whereas a track along the coast or just inland would likely involve a wintry mix to rain scenario for those same general areas and snow farther inland. Elsewhere, a shortwave tracking near the Gulf Coast along with an associated frontal wave over the northern Gulf of Mexico could produce a period of enhanced rainfall across portions of southern Texas and Louisiana on Monday, and then into Florida on Tuesday. The Northwest should see multiple episodes of rain and higher elevation snow with highest totals over favored terrain. Confidence is moderate at best for day-to-day details regarding amounts and coverage but there is a general signal that totals should increase toward Wednesday-Thursday. Hamrick Edited December 16, 2022 by Poco 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I’d post the 0z gmao but its depressing and figure at the very least we should be all vibes for now…. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 ok interesting week a head i need a tick south to get snow and it went north and its raining . now for this storm i need at tick north what will happen who knows but this is messing with my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Doser1 said: ok interesting week a head i need a tick south to get snow and it went north and its raining . now for this storm i need at tick north what will happen who knows but this is messing with my mind So what’s the rules for IMBY for this forum I don’t want to get thrown out, banned, beat down, wet blanketed or snoboled (is he in this forum btw). Edited December 16, 2022 by Chris2333 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 16, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 16, 2022 00z EPS.. I just don't see much to complain about at the moment. Good bit of consensus among the members for a week out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Penn State said: 00z EPS.. I just don't see much to complain about at the moment. Good bit of consensus among the members for a week out. Totally agree.. I mean what more could we want from ensemble support for a storm a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 16, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 16, 2022 0z 500mb Roundup.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, WeatherFlash said: Totally agree.. I mean what more could we want from ensemble support for a storm a week out. Locked in solution that doesn’t change but that doesn’t exist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 NWS Blacksburg: ".LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM EST Friday... Colder temperatures, potential for winter weather late in the week... The weather for most of next week will be quiet and chilly in zonal flow and with high surface pressure. The atmosphere will be dry and temperatures will be a few degrees below normal. The next major weather producing system we will be watching may arrive by late next week. At this extended point in the forecast we are identifying potential for winter weather, not exact times, amounts or weather types. An upper trough looks to amplify over the plains in the mid- week timeframe, digging down into the CONUS and bringing colder air with it. By late in the week, this trough could tap into Gulf moisture and encourage the growth of a surface low with associated fronts. The trajectory of the system as a whole is still disputed amongst deterministic model guidance, but there is a chance for snow late next week. This system will be given a lot of attention in the forecast as it draws nearer." Not sure I've even heard them say that before. They got their eye on you, storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucikaroo Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The only way I getting snow is buying a snow machine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 58 minutes ago, Chris2333 said: So what’s the rules for IMBY for this forum I don’t want to get thrown out, banned, beat down, wet blanketed or snoboled (is he in this forum btw). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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