December 22-24, 2022 | Winter Storm

[so_whats_happening]

13 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Pure water can actually stay liquid below freezing. If you leave a water bottle with no air bubbles out, undisturbed, on a cold night, it'll often stay liquid. But the second you touch it and it's disturbed, it'll freeze.

 Fog can do this too. You get super cooled water droplets that can't freeze until they contact something.  To precipitate, the super cooled droplets need a condensation nuclei, very often sea salt, to form snowflakes.

Just wanted to add  onto this, if my memory serves me correct, over land you usually get dirt or dust to be able to do this it allows saturation to occur at a much lower RH (~70%) versus over the ocean where the only prevalent thing is typically salt and water which typically needs a supersaturated environment RH exceeding 100% to precipitate from other water molecules, I wanna say with salt it is around mid to upper 90's RH so it is a little easier to occur. It has been 10 years since PMET class so I could be off a bit. 

[1816]

20 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Pure water can actually stay liquid below freezing. If you leave a water bottle with no air bubbles out, undisturbed, on a cold night, it'll often stay liquid. But the second you touch it and it's disturbed, it'll freeze.

 Fog can do this too. You get super cooled water droplets that can't freeze until they contact something.  To precipitate, the super cooled droplets need a condensation nuclei, very often sea salt, to form snowflakes.

 

9 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

 

I'm not surprised mainejay would give a response like this. Mr wizard. 🤣🤣

I'm still not sure I'm understanding them correctly. Now I'm thinking maybe it's not a timing thing because it still sounds like they are forecasting plain rain into upper 20s temps. And it's not a lab environment lol. 

 

Thursday Night

Rain. Low around 28. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday

Rain and snow likely before 9am, then a slight chance of snow showers between 9am and noon. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 31. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[1816]

25 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Pure water can actually stay liquid below freezing. If you leave a water bottle with no air bubbles out, undisturbed, on a cold night, it'll often stay liquid. But the second you touch it and it's disturbed, it'll freeze.

 Fog can do this too. You get super cooled water droplets that can't freeze until they contact something.  To precipitate, the super cooled droplets need a condensation nuclei, very often sea salt, to form snowflakes.

By the way, our forecast low for Fri is 6 so I am absolutely trying this. If it pans out I will try to get video. 

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, 1816 said:

 

I'm not surprised mainejay would give a response like this. Mr wizard. 🤣🤣

I'm still not sure I'm understanding them correctly. Now I'm thinking maybe it's not a timing thing because it still sounds like they are forecasting plain rain into upper 20s temps. And it's not a lab environment lol. 

 

Thursday Night

Rain. Low around 28. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday

Rain and snow likely before 9am, then a slight chance of snow showers between 9am and noon. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 31. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

RGEM shows it pretty decent actually. Take a look at the 12z run for SW VA. Initially there is enough of a wedge you get a sleet event to some freezing rain and you warm up enough to mid/upper 30's precip stops around 7-9pm. Between then and when the front comes through about 6 hours later you have some cooling that takes place many go to around freezing but some go under freezing. It is isn't to discount potential of freezing fog or drizzle to occur but most of your rain happens early but it still happens in the evening so it says 100% rain chance.

Ill admit 28 may be exaggerated a bit but not to discredit the local WFO im sure they have reasons for that type of temp but that is the reasoning behind the look of your forecast. 

[MaineJay]

6 minutes ago, 1816 said:

By the way, our forecast low for Fri is 6 so I am absolutely trying this. If it pans out I will try to get video. 

I would recommend in a vehicle, or at least where the wind won't make it move even the slightest bit.

[Rush]

Winter Weather Advisory for 1".   So exciting.

Told my 6 year old that it was the first day of winter.  He said, "woohoo should be snow on the ground soon."

[GregRups]

7 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I would recommend in a vehicle, or at least where the wind won't make it move even the slightest bit.

Now I know why my water bottles dont always freeze in the car overnight.

[Brodozer1]

5 hours ago, 1816 said:

Yeah I know that lol. If the surface temp is 28 and it's raining, how does it not freeze at the surface, thereby becoming "zr" or freezing rain. They have no mention of ip or zr. Just rain. 

 

Seems noncommittal from them. Like they aren't confident in the temp forecast or something. Because rain falling into a 28 degree surface is definitely going to freeze. 

Edit: I think I figured it out. It's the timing.  They expect the rain to end before the temp drops below freezing. 

why didn't it flash freeze 😝 .  I had a flash freeze i was drinking a slushy to fast and i had a flash brain freeze 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Brodozer1

[1816]

1 minute ago, Brodozer1 said:

why didn't it flash freeze 😝

Thats definitely in the forecast for Friday. They word it any residual moisture on the ground will flash freeze after the arctic front. 

I'm still not sure why this bothers you so much🤣🤣  

I think you'd be OK with it if they said it's gonna freeze up really fuckin fast. 

[telejunkie]

Mmm...this thread has gone into official tangent mode.

Best way to deaerate at home is to boil the water prior to sealing up. Still will have some O2 in solution (~140 ppb per Henry's Law), but should get you close.

[Brodozer1]

wow CNN says this is a once in a generation storm and it rain for me .

i guess that's the last great storm for me 😂 

[Bucikaroo]

Well where I am, nothing more than like a bad thunderstorm with the wind which we have had worst, yes it will be cold, had that before to, others are going to have to be careful

[TLChip]

Adding to the supercooled water droplets, I believe PARD(5 mile hill) and MDBlueridge(his backyard?) have seen some ugly ZR storms at elevation, like low/mid 20s with freezing rain? Was discussed awhile back can’t remember where or when.

Edited December 21, 2022 by TLChip

[MDBlueridge]

HRRR is garbage and I hate but were getting frisky as we get closer

dont take as gospel especially if u live in the port 

[JDClapper]

Feeling a headfake approaching. I am having a reeeealy hard time buying these outputs. Could just be because of recent experience, but man.. 3-5", the largest snow event of the season tomorrow? Cmon man.

[tool483]

Dare I say backend snow? I know, it's rare and almost never happens. Maybe there is a shot of some flakes? Any other models hinting at this? Checking some others on TT. .This storm is a beast

 

[MDBlueridge]

5 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Feeling a headfake approaching. I am having a reeeealy hard time buying these outputs. Could just be because of recent experience, but man.. 3-5", the largest snow event of the season tomorrow? Cmon man.

I agree with you. Faith in snow in the Port is fleeting each season. But it also must be the reason you continue to return. 

I like the switchers. Snow, rain, snow sounds fun

[Tater]

6 minutes ago, tool483 said:

Dare I say backend snow? I know, it's rare and almost never happens. Maybe there is a shot of some flakes? Any other models hinting at this? Checking some others on TT.

Go ahead Charlie. Try that football one more time. 

[TLChip]

Long range NAM had some… long range….kick it Charlie!

Edited December 21, 2022 by TLChip

[Miller A]

4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Pure water can actually stay liquid below freezing. If you leave a water bottle with no air bubbles out, undisturbed, on a cold night, it'll often stay liquid. But the second you touch it and it's disturbed, it'll freeze.

 Fog can do this too. You get super cooled water droplets that can't freeze until they contact something.  To precipitate, the super cooled droplets need a condensation nuclei, very often sea salt, to form snowflakes.

Found @MaineJayat Cheers one day...........

[Lazman]

Flood Watch issued for parts of Eastern Pa. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Lazman

[Mainiac]

We actually have a snow map which will probably be a slush map before all is said and done. 

If anyone wants access to the big snows, just need to climb Katahdin.

[Wayuphere]

39 minutes ago, Mainiac said:

We actually have a snow map which will probably be a slush map before all is said and done. 

If anyone wants access to the big snows, just need to climb Katahdin.

With those winds…90-95😳

[TheRex]

Not as impressive as the Maine wind map, but some of the peaks around here could see gusts getting close to 100 mph.  What did impress me are gusts up to 74 mph in Rutland.  Rutland is a valley town just west of Killington.  It must be a wind tunnel through that area.

[TLChip]

@TheRexLooks like lots of peaks in the NE are in for full conditions! Washingtons higher summits are calling for gusts over 140 and sustained 100 

Spoiler

A rapidly intensifying area of low pressure will pass to the west of the higher summits Thursday night and Friday. This system will bring a variety of hazards to the region ranging from powerful winds and wintry weather, to heavy rainfall and flooding. At the moment, the low pressure in question is an upper-level impulse over portions of the intermountain west. Over the next 12-24 hours this disturbance will dive south, allowing for cyclogenesis across the Midwest. The storm will then track over the Great Lakes during the day on Friday, intensifying as it does so. The minimum central pressure of the system will bottom out in the upper 950s or lower 960s as it passes over Michigan Friday afternoon. In terms of sensible weather on the higher summits, this will translate into a variety of hazards. Conditions on Thursday will start on a relatively calm note with lingering high pressure maintaining control for the first half of the day. Clouds will quickly thicken up with summit fog beginning during the afternoon. Southerly wind ahead of the circulation will advect moisture into the White Mountain region. Precipitation will break out around nightfall Thursday. With cold air damming in place, precipitation is expected to start as snow which may be heavy at times during the first half of Thursday night. There is a risk for localized whiteout conditions as southerly winds increase. A nose of warm air aloft will then change precipitation to a mix of freezing rain and sleet by the second half of the overnight. Periods of sleet and freezing rain will continue throughout the day on Friday and occasionally become heavy at times, particularly during the morning and early afternoon. Precipitation will rapidly change back to all snow even down to base level behind a strong cold front. The other dimension of this storm’s hazards will be extreme southeast winds beginning overnight Thursday and into Friday. A strong low-level jet will move over the summits beginning early Friday morning. Winds will increase to well over the century mark beginning very early Friday morning. As the core of the jet moves over the summit later Friday morning into the afternoon, gusts up to and exceeding 140 mph will be common. In addition to the strong low-level jet, the tropopause is forecast to be located at around 700 milibars which will act to further accelerate the winds via the venturi effect. Winds will lessen somewhat later Friday, however, they will likely still be sustained near or just over the century mark. The main hazard by Friday evening and Saturday night will transition to a period of rapid freezing, and heavy snowfall. New snow will fall on icy surfaces and will be easily lofted by strong winds resulting in whiteout conditions.
Francis Tarasiewicz -- Weather Observer and Meteorologist
Updated at 5:00 PM on Wednesday

 

Edited December 22, 2022 by TLChip