CandO100 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 And if tomorrow, someone starts a post with data signaling a “potential” storm a week or more out, I’ll take the hook. It’s just who we are, right? Snow junkies! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The best way for me to keep my hopes in check is to look at historical data for my area, Hagerstown, MD. In 7 of the previous 8 Decembers, a total of less than 2” of snow fell in the entire month. Add up the December snowfall for those 7 years in Hagerstown and you get about 4.5 inches. That’s a grand total of less than 5 inches of snow in 217 December days. That just screams, “it ain’t gonna snow.” If Thursday/Friday doesn’t produce measurable snow then we might just add another 31 December snowless days to that dreadful tally. Crazy, but it is what it is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 19, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 19, 2022 So.. this is all biased folks trying to create a narrative around an eastern shift, right? I mean.. this is the 84th hour on the NAM. All of the weather community has come to a consensus that this is going to cut through the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 hours ago, bigben89 said: Just like my wife, I’ll take six inches and call it a day. You win the internet for the day with that one lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, Penn State said: So.. this is all biased folks trying to create a narrative around an eastern shift, right? I mean.. this is the 84th hour on the NAM. All of the weather community has come to a consensus that this is going to cut through the Midwest. They've been at this shit for weeks. Apparently just getting attention is all they care about anymore. I mean, anything is possible with the weather but going against the consensus is a losing proposition more often than not. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 19, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) I’m just amazed by this.. So, if you can pick out Franklin County, PA.. we get about 2-4” on the front (3-6 hours) and then pick up about 9” in a 3 hour period between Hours 117 and 120 when the front passes through. I’ll go streaking in the snow if that happens. GFS is smoking crack. 😂 Edit: Just looked and parts of NWPA pick up 2 feet in 6 hours. No. Just.. no. Edited December 19, 2022 by Penn State 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted December 19, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 hours ago, bigben89 said: Just like my wife, I’ll take six inches and call it a day. And your name is BIG Ben? 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, CandO100 said: And if tomorrow, someone starts a post with data signaling a “potential” storm a week or more out, I’ll take the hook. It’s just who we are, right? Snow junkies! It normally takes about 2-3 times getting burnt by the models in the 5-7 day time frame each winter before I become numb to it. This is #1. Edited December 19, 2022 by Rush 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 hours ago, Penn State said: I’m just amazed by this.. So, if you can pick out Franklin County, PA.. we get about 2-4” on the front (3-6 hours) and then pick up about 9” in a 3 hour period between Hours 117 and 120 when the front passes through. I’ll go streaking in the snow if that happens. GFS is smoking crack. 😂 Edit: Just looked and parts of NWPA pick up 2 feet in 6 hours. No. Just.. no. Based on recent history, I am shaving 80% off of the GFS snow maps. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Based on recent history, I am shaving 80% off of the GFS snow maps. Lol the rule I always follow when looking at snow maps is to take the least snowiest model output, cut it in half and that is the top end amount you can expect. cut it in half again and that is the most likely amount you'll get (if everything works out just right). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 off topic what the ---- happened over at wdisco did i miss something all newbies over there glad i found this place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Man, this is a painful one. I thought we were good as gold too until the cutters surfaced. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 From BTV, for my location in northeast VT. Looking soggy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 There’s good reasons why we refer to those maps as “clown maps,” “eye candy,” etc. yet we still love to look at them and dream. You know, because one day they’ll verify and all will be forgotten. We’re such snow map pushovers. In all seriousness though, thank you to those of you who put in the time and energy to track these “potential” storms. Your analysis is appreciated. Even though these storms don’t often work out for my area it’s still a lot of fun in here and it beats having to rely solely on major outlets. Win or lose, at least in here we can have a few laughs and it’s well worth my time. Merry Christmas y’all 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinmama08 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 10 hours ago, Penn State said: I’m just amazed by this.. So, if you can pick out Franklin County, PA.. we get about 2-4” on the front (3-6 hours) and then pick up about 9” in a 3 hour period between Hours 117 and 120 when the front passes through. I’ll go streaking in the snow if that happens. GFS is smoking crack. 😂 Edit: Just looked and parts of NWPA pick up 2 feet in 6 hours. No. Just.. no. Downtown Chambersburg looks especially beautiful this year.... excellent decorations.. hot laps around the tree maybe? In seriousness- I've been a member since the Accu days. I don't post much, but I read and learn. I appreciate how well you have kept this thread up and presented all of the information- even if the information doesn't show what we want it to! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 This is indicative of a pretty extreme wind event climatologically. It's so widespread too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Doser1 said: off topic what the ---- happened over at wdisco did i miss something all newbies over there glad i found this place I've never been able to piece that together either. maybe someone will PM us hint, hint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad11ny Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Miller A said: I've never been able to piece that together either. maybe someone will PM us hint, hint. I think, for the most part people didn’t know where everyone went. I saw a post the other day that mentioned this group. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Doser1 said: off topic what the ---- happened over at wdisco did i miss something all newbies over there glad i found this place Last year planet master went mad about climate change and then this group was started so as not to be involved with his insanity and name calling. I don’t know what goes on there now as I was banned from the group lol. So far wxsphere is a way better atmosphere and better forum. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 From another board: "I am optimistic to a fault. So I will search for late saves despite strong evidence that argues otherwise. But at this point I think I am pretty much ready to put a fork into this for chances for anyone outside of the deep interior into the lakes. Even here in the mountains of WV I am having serious doubts on my thoughts of reaching the low end of my 6-12" prediction I have held onto for days now. Just an observation on the latest GFS (06Z) and maybe something to keep an eye on in later runs. What we have in a northern sw (Nebraska) dropping down towards a sw in Texas. It does present some opportunities if the pv suppression in the East can relax quickly enough to allow amplification on its backside. The 00Z starting popping this out. Looking at the vorticity you can see this actually isn't a bad little setup." "This is what we are seeing after the above post. ^^^^^ There was a very sloppy phasing between the two sws where we now have a sw through Alabama/Georgia. Looking above it, we now have a NS vorticity that is dropping on its backside where it just misses. We were really close to seeing a triple phaser there. Hmmmm......." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 Euro ensemble gusts Euro op gusts. Again, very widespread. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 If you really want to know what went down at the other site, you are welcome to PM me and ask. If you still have access to the other site, I can provide links to the relevant threads. Be forewarned though, it's probably best if you just recognize enough *stuff* went down for us to realize we had to leave, and abide by Fight Club or Vegas rules. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Brad11ny said: I think, for the most part people didn’t know where everyone went. I saw a post the other day that mentioned this group. did anyone tell Snobal? I havent found where to search members yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Miller A said: did anyone tell Snobal? I havent found where to search members yet No Snobal here, at least under that name. Some changed their names, so who knows. It's like you can get a fresh opportunity to start a new life here. Edited December 19, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 GFS is sooooo consistent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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