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December 22-24, 2022 | Winter Storm


Penn State

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5 hours ago, 1816 said:

All this talk about the Canadian shortwave and tpv being the key players. I'd like to see these start coming together as modeled before I start writing the forecast in pen. We've seen last minute busts out of all the models many times. I can envision them screwing up a delicate choreography of energies just now departing Siberia. 

Bingo.

That withstanding, the consolidation towards the MW/OH Valley leads me to believe that the S/W is beginning to become sampled enough that models are sniffing out an eventual track. 

The LARGE caveat here is the perturbations are rather subtle which lead to the eventual outcome. Still another 24 or so hours before the confidence can be upped IMHO. 

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Basically, ridge off west coast pumped more than earlier runs and shifted east. Need to keep that ridge pumped and keep shifting east. Ridge axis thru oregan and Washington would be ideal for east coast storm. Watch that ridge over the next few days. 

Edited by Rickrd
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