Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 17, 2022 So.. one thing that I’m still watching is the potential for a transfer. I think that’s still on the table. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslanGurlllll Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 My forecast is getting more crazy by the hour…. I’ll check again Tuesday 😑 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, Doser1 said: This was a really good video from Bernie. Not a lot of the usual nonsense, but solid analysis. Basically his contention is that the vortex over Canada is guiding the ULL with this storm. On the Euro, it's elongated over Canada. Versus the 0z GFS which was more separate and compact. 12z Euro even more strung out. And the latest GFS moved in that direction, but Bernie thinks that is incorrect. Thus settting up IN to WPA as the area to watch the upper low. Other thing I just noticed is the energy over the Baja is less on the 12z gfs. It had been playing with this energy in previous runs. At one point, the GFS and Euro had (on different runs) a precursor storm to the main arctic driven one that involved some pacific energy and that in the baja. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Penn State said: So.. one thing that I’m still watching is the potential for a transfer. I think that’s still on the table. That was part of my wishcast for a storm further west and weaker, that sets up a coastal based on the warm front hitting CAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: That was part of my wishcast for a storm further west and weaker, that sets up a coastal based on the warm front hitting CAD. But I almost think the storm (ULL) is too strong and since its not decaying, has no reason to triple point. I'm just full of conflicts today... I need to clear my head. Lose what I want to happen and focus on what's out in front of us. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 17, 2022 Euro starting to throw a little bit of a curveball scenario here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, StretchCT said: That was part of my wishcast for a storm further west and weaker, that sets up a coastal based on the warm front hitting CAD. yep exactly what im starting to see looks like a middle ground option may be at play, not too far NW or SE. Could get interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 Further to that vortex over Canada, I present the 12z GFS and Euro Ens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 56 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: yep exactly what im starting to see looks like a middle ground option may be at play, not too far NW or SE. Could get interesting @StretchCT @so_whats_happening The euro and GFS are fighting with this little early coastal at 114-132. Euro 12z had a very different look than 00z. GFS like through 132. There is a lot to iron out here. Great analysis @StretchCT All three streams at play here? Edited December 17, 2022 by MDBlueridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: All three streams at play here? There have been runs with the STJ involved... this looks to me more Pacific with the STJ below it and out of play, but there was a run at one time, maybe it was the Euro, that had the northern branch, pacific and southern branch all on the map at the same time feeding in, just not at the same place and same time. Our main piece of energy looks to be crossing the poles right now. I don't know the sampling capabilities of Alaska, but the energy emerges over the Gulf of Alaska after crossing the state N/S and then swings into the CONUS. GFS and Euro are both onto this, but some differences on how it goes over the GOA. Usually our systems are coming off the Pacific or over the Yukon/NWT where there's possibly less sampling. Also noting that earlier runs of the GFS at least had this energy more concentrated as a shortwave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 another solution every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, NEPAsnow said: another solution every run Yeah, a 984 in Lake Erie transferred to a 977 in the northern Chesapeake ... weird. 🤷♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Still same general.theme though. Front end snow, mess, changeover to rain.. potential backend coating+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 All this talk about the Canadian shortwave and tpv being the key players. I'd like to see these start coming together as modeled before I start writing the forecast in pen. We've seen last minute busts out of all the models many times. I can envision them screwing up a delicate choreography of energies just now departing Siberia. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, JDClapper said: Yeah, a 984 in Lake Erie transferred to a 977 in the northern Chesapeake ... weird. 🤷♂️ I thought the same thing.. Odd movement SE. The triple point low thing is weird. It’s all odd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 31 minutes ago, Penn State said: I thought the same thing.. Odd movement SE. The triple point low thing is weird. It’s all odd. That showed up with the last system, on the GFS and I believe the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 GFS further east and weaker. More neutral tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, a 984 in Lake Erie transferred to a 977 in the northern Chesapeake ... weird. 🤷♂️ 37 minutes ago, Penn State said: I thought the same thing.. Odd movement SE. The triple point low thing is weird. It’s all odd. I'm guessing it's the model picking up on convection along front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 One of those few times I want lower heights in the pacific. GFS gave a little more separation from the incoming energy and the polar vortex like feature over Canada. Less, a bit less, elongated but not back to the 0z look. ULL by Greenland looks more interesting too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 GEFS has the low further east, but the trough is more negative/negative earlier. More spread over the coast in the members too. CAD signal still there, not the strongest though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 At this time it look to be inland runner rain for coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rickrd said: What a remarkably accurate picture. Imagine being an actual apps runner irl. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, Rickrd said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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