RobB Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, JDClapper said: Cmc and GFS tracks are not too unsimilar.. roughly SW OH to NE OH You can come to the GFS low party over my house 🙂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said: Its almost like a funeral in here, so much hurt 😞 This feels even more torturous than last December at this point. At least last December was so damn warm almost no one was able to get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 WPC prob updates. Obviously little/no 12z input with these. But, the ticks westward continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 This time of year reminds me of Christmas morning when I can't wait to see what I got! Sometimes it was an air hockey table or rocket tubes. It never was an Atari or Intellivsion. One year it was a Quiz Wiz. This morning, everyone, even the Navgem, is giving me a Quiz Wiz. Except the GFS which is my cool uncle! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Rush Posted December 17, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted December 17, 2022 I was really hoping this would stop me from having to go to my in-laws on Christmas Eve. Thanks for the disappointment GFS. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: This time of year reminds me of Christmas morning when I can't wait to see what I got! Sometimes it was an air hockey table or rocket tubes. It never was an Atari or Intellivsion. One year it was a Quiz Wiz. This morning, everyone, even the Navgem, is giving me a Quiz Wiz. Except the GFS which is my cool uncle! My cool uncle got me a remote control helicopter, which promptly flew away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 Could be a dark Christmas for some folks. I've triple checked these aren't 850 winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 At least there’s the potential for some backend wrap around snows to coat the ground for a white Christmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Gefs mean SLP jumped a good 150 miles west also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Gefs mean SLP jumped a good 150 miles west also It's pretty clear which way this is trending, and it's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said: This feels even more torturous than last December at this point. At least last December was so damn warm almost no one was able to get anything. https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/b99e16cc-7d02-4d3c-86fa-0d2a0e4a5106 Edited December 17, 2022 by Chris2333 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakattack Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 38 minutes ago, Chris2333 said: Checks calendar yep 5 days out, looks at models, yep lost the storm again. Looks at towel in the corner safely played on shelf. I suggest you all do the same, always the storms get lost in this time period (maybe I’m wrong but I swear the last few winters it’s been like this in this time period). If you want to throw your towel in I need a bunch for next summer’s pool season. I’m also being very optimistic either way pin this one if I’m right, burn it and throw the Homer Simpson gif if I’m wrong https://media2.giphy.com/media/l4q8gHsCDRGTR0MfK/200.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 36 minutes ago, StretchCT said: This time of year reminds me of Christmas morning when I can't wait to see what I got! Sometimes it was an air hockey table or rocket tubes. It never was an Atari or Intellivsion. One year it was a Quiz Wiz. This morning, everyone, even the Navgem, is giving me a Quiz Wiz. Except the GFS which is my cool uncle! This was my most memorable christmas gift, I had been sick with scarlet fever all christmas break, and was thrilled when Santa left it for me. Unfortunately it was broken, and when my mom went to return it, I mean Santa, they did not have any more. So, 48 years later my wife got me one. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 17, 2022 Well this may be a rather dynamic storm! Im interested if we will get some severe weather with this. Im not too keen on the elusive back end snows around here yet but central PA and western NY may get in on that fun. Looks like we stand potential of a some lake effect reaching through the state going into christmas but the worry comes with flash freezing of the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 21 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Well this may be a rather dynamic storm! Im interested if we will get some severe weather with this. Im not too keen on the elusive back end snows around here yet but central PA and western NY may get in on that fun. Looks like we stand potential of a some lake effect reaching through the state going into christmas but the worry comes with flash freezing of the roads. I dont really care for how this one is looking either. We did just get power back which is wonderful. Cold, warm, cold yuck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: I dont really care for how this one is looking either. We did just get power back which is wonderful. Cold, warm, cold yuck Yea some pretty hefty southerly winds coming up with that. Im not sure just how far north the warm front progresses which would be where the LP would go, that would play a lot into that backend potential. There is a chance it is out to pittsburgh and that is rather warm overall and severe weather or it forms around our area and we get a rapid changeover situation not much severe weather but solid rains and maybe that elusive backend snow. interesting system regardless. I have a feeling we may need to watch the one just after christmas as it trails behind its in that werid stage of being too far SE. Just like this one was too far SE around a similar lead time. Lets see how this one sets up by Monday we should have a solid understanding where things lie and then we can work out the precip aspect a bit better. Edited December 17, 2022 by so_whats_happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Going to be big storm just dont want rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) Last comment for now... Seems odd that the CMC lead this charge. (So I typed this two hours ago.... never hit reply duh) What I'm referring to in spoiler. CMC had this in the lakes on the 14th. But now I'm undeciding that as it too went to a coastal for some runs..... Spoiler Edited December 17, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Last comment for now... Seems odd that the CMC lead this charge. (So I typed this two hours ago.... never hit reply duh) Haha, why? It’s not that odd given how every model is in basic inland cutter agreement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: I dont really care for how this one is looking either. We did just get power back which is wonderful. Cold, warm, cold yuck Warm and wet followed by cold and dry is the worst kind of winter pattern. At least last year it was like 50° even on the dry days in December, so it didn't feel like you were missing out on what could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 At least for now, it looks like the cold air push will be strong enough that most interior spots of PA and New York could still get a few inches of snow. Even if the low tracks well to the west. I do not remember it being such a Herculean effort to get snow in non lake effect areas from Chicago and East before 2014 or so in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 These are the thoughts in my tortured mind.... what if the low falls so far back west that its just a weak warm front that comes up the coast with a quick dump of snow to rain.... Then I look at temps leading up to this. Part of me gets excited to be chopping wood in a tshirt. Then I remember I'll be franticly looking for stocking stuffers that day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: These are the thoughts in my tortured mind.... what if the low falls so far back west that its just a weak warm front that comes up the coast with a quick dump of snow to rain.... Then I look at temps leading up to this. Part of me gets excited to be chopping wood in a tshirt. Then I remember I'll be franticly looking for stocking stuffers that day. Looks like an even more extreme version of how the temperatures looked on Christmas Day in 2020 where myself in Pittsburgh was in the middle of a lovely picture perfect white Christmas, and the coast was near 50°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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