Weathertop Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Seems like through hour 156, GEFS refuses to back down, as of 6z run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Weathertop said: Seems like through hour 156, GEFS refuses to back down, as of 6z run today. I think @telejunkie discussed that the GFS and it's ensembles seen willing to break some energy off early, bringing it east near James Bay. This allows the pattern to be progressive enough where the longwave trof can get to the coast. EPS GEFS Looks like there's more variability in the EPS, though only a handful that would get the job done, a non zero chance at least. Less spread in the GEFS probably doesn't mean it's more "correct", probably just not capturing the entire envelope. . Not the steps we wanted to see to be sure, but it's worth giving it at least a couple more cycles before tossing the threat completely, might not be a while lot to talk about otherwise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Wpc updates, dunno if if it considers 0z data or not. And yeah, EPS is sad for interior PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Sterlings latest info wetter with snow but low confidence in snow. For Thursday and Friday, the details of the forecast become much more muddy. There is still a large discrepancy amongst the guidance regarding a strong push of arctic air and a low pressure system expected to develop on the leading edge. The trend in the past few model runs has been to develop a surface low along the Appalachains, resulting in a wetter solution over our region rather than wintry precipitation. This is shown in almost all of the global guidance (Euro, Canadian, ICON, and the JMA). However, the GFS continues to depict a more wintry scenario. All things considered, will keep some mention of snow in the forecast, but admittedly confidence in that has certainly decreased overnight. Confidence remains high though that an arctic airmass will be in place for Friday into the weekend. This will result in very cold temperatures by Friday. Guidance hints at some very gusty winds Friday into Friday night as well, so that will also make it feel even colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Wpc updates, dunno if if it considers 0z data or not. And yeah, EPS is sad for interior PA. We'll be building a snowman today, and if these current forecasts holds, perhaps a time lapse of his demise will be in order. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 17, 2022 00z Operational Model Guidance Roundup (Hours 120-192) GFS ECMWF GDPS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 17, 2022 00z 500 mb Roundup (Hours 120-192).. GFS ECMWF GDPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 17, 2022 00z Ensemble Roundup (Hours 120-192) GEFS EPS CMCE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 17, 2022 00z 500mb Comparison @ Hour 156 (12z on 12/23) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: We'll be building a snowman today, and if these current forecasts holds, perhaps a time lapse of his demise will be in order. Im old enough to remember when, within 24 hours, EPS had a 2% of a dud for the last system here. Granted this is 6ish days away, but wonder if we'll have the same "luck" this go around. 😄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Growing up in the south, I still get excited anytime we get to see snow, and would love to see a white Christmas, but I am not so sure how much to hope for this. The idea of snow is great, but that is some cold coming in with it. Roanoke does reasonably well with keeping the city and valley area cleared, but those of us living on the mountain roads in the county can go 3 days or more without roads being cleared, and many, if not the majority, of our county roads are steep, windy, very narrow roads, often with mountain rock on one side, drop off on the other. It can only take a few inches to make them dangerous. If we get a significant snow on the front end, we may be shut down for several days or more including Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Its almost like a funeral in here, so much hurt 😞 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 And the emotional roller coaster begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said: Its almost like a funeral in here, so much hurt 😞 I mean.. I’m thrilled with a storm to track. If it happens to be for our midwestern friends, that’s awesome. If it’s for interior folks like me.. that’s awesome+ 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 hours ago, Weathertop said: Agreed. Lost overnight Ensemble support from GEPS and most Ensemble support from EPS, too, for coastal storm. Trending in the wrong direction for big East Coast snows. It has trended better for me I wished we can compromise with all of the plains to the east coast getting snow, but a man can dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Maine Snow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 hours ago, MaineJay said: No thanks. 4-6" of rain, coastal flooding. This is from an episode of, "when amplified patterns go wrong ". That's just unacceptable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 👎 1 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 every model run is different each time. The answers to this wont come till monday night tuesday runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The lake effect after this blows through may be interesting.. maybe even farther away from the lakes than ushe. But I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Wouldn't be surprised if we see this cut way west, to see some CAD and some front end frozen accumulation for the interior as we often see around these parts with cutters. Models a lot of times don't even start to pick up on that until the shorter term like 4-5 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, HVSNOWSTORM said: Wouldn't be surprised if we see this cut way west, to see some CAD and some front end frozen accumulation for the interior as we often see around these parts with cutters. Models a lot of times don't even start to pick up on that until the shorter term like 4-5 day range. Agree. A typical 1-4" front end, to slop, to rain event. On the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayuphere Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Southern Maine Snow said: That's just unacceptable. Agree. Add in the water content in todays snowpack on top of soil already saturated from previous rains with full streams and rivers…not good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) Checks calendar yep 5 days out, looks at models, yep lost the storm again. Looks at towel in the corner safely played on shelf. I suggest you all do the same, always the storms get lost in this time period (maybe I’m wrong but I swear the last few winters it’s been like this in this time period). If you want to throw your towel in I need a bunch for next summer’s pool season. I’m also being very optimistic either way pin this one if I’m right, burn it and throw the Homer Simpson gif if I’m wrong Edited December 17, 2022 by Chris2333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, HVSNOWSTORM said: Wouldn't be surprised if we see this cut way west, to see some CAD and some front end frozen accumulation for the interior as we often see around these parts with cutters. Models a lot of times don't even start to pick up on that until the shorter term like 4-5 day range. Yea….this was too good to be true to be honest. PNA ridge too far west, trough axis too far west with amplification and neutral tilt also too far west, Loss of 50/50. All terrible ingredients for a big-time cutter, unfortunately. Time for changes, but not looking too good folks. Especially for people from say i81 on east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Cmc and GFS tracks are not too unsimilar.. roughly SW OH to NE OH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now