December 22-24, 2022 | Winter Storm

[MaineJay]

Seems like we are still at enough lead time where substantial enough shifts are possible.  Not really discounting, or buying anything yet.  The way the trof has to sit there and deepen in SW Canada before ejecting east seems difficult to time.

Last 8 GFS

[Wtkidz]

For giggles and grins.

 

 

[Penn State]

I think this run is to going make quite a few people happy.. could be wrong, but looks real nice at 138. 

[NEPAsnow]

Back to back?

[NEPAsnow]

Does the 2nd low go boom?

[WeatherFlash]

Bombradar to Bombradar. 

[Rickrd]

Timing issues. I'm thinking there may just be one big low in the end. 6 days out. A lot to be ironed out. 

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

Timing issues. I'm thinking there may just be one big low in the end. 6 days out. A lot to be ironed out. 

I 100% agree.. There’s a lot going here. This is so much fun to track though! 

[MaineJay]

Gonna post the French model. Only goes to 102, but it's apparently been scoring about on par with the GFS.

It's a shame they discounted the EMC verification site.

[MaineJay]

Add in the new moon, and this would make for some coastal flooding issues on the Maine coast.

[PA road DAWG]

Just watched Bernie Rayno’s video.  He said this isn’t an i95 snowstorm.  It’s west of i95

[PA road DAWG]

Wow gefs.  8” mean this far out is insane 

[PA road DAWG]

[Bradjl2009]

6 hours ago, Bradjl2009 said:

I refuse to get excited and just believe it's going to continue to move west on the next run

Honestly surprised to see things aren't any further west on the 00Z runs so far. 

[Rickrd]

0z GEFS MSLP Low Positions. Nice

[Sentinel]

Posted this in the OH/MV Thread, however, I figured I would post it here also. 

My 2 Cents:

From what I can see, it appears that the TPV (see below) is being affected by a shortwave in Alaska which is impacting the tropospheric circumpolar vortex (TCV - Please see picture below for additional assistance as I explain), which in turn is altering how the TPV itself is manifesting, thus changing the baroclinic zones and allowing for bombogenesis near the Midwest rather than the EC. So.. let me break that down. 

The TPV is known as the Tropopause Polar Vortex. We will get to this in a minute, however, let's start with the TCV.  The TCV is a large rotating column of air which is loosely wound around the Poles. In our case, we are affected by the one rotating around the North Pole. This loosely rotating column of air is centered on the North Pole and can reach as far South as the Southern United States, though this Southern boundary tends to fluctuate between Canada and the Southern US (this is a bird's eye view explanation. There are some very technical and intricate features which I am glancing over). 

That being said, let's get into the TPV. The TPV is what most people think of when the Polar Vortex is mentioned (ie media, public, etc). What a TPV actually is, is a lobe within the TCV. Basically, It is a HP System which forms within the rotating column of air that is the TCV. When this lobe develops, it is normally what is responsible for an Artic Air Intrusion into the United States. The thing about TPVs is that they are rather susceptible to other energies within the TCV. 

In this particular case, the TPV is being affected by a vigorous piece of energy over Alaska. This piece of energy (a shortwave) is still poorly sampled and -as mentioned previously- is in no man's land Alaska. The difference in the current models appear to be attributed to this shortwave feature. What appears to be happening is that the models which are keeping the shortwave less vigorous are thereby keeping the TCV with less perturbation (or ridges and troughs - ie more zonal). This zonal flow allows the TPV to settle further into the center of the country. In other words - the more zonal flow changes the momentum and thus where the artic air intrusion first begins. In turn, this changes the baroclinic zone and therefore where the Low-Pressure System eventually sets up. (Baroclinicity/Baroclinic Zone is the temperature difference over a short distance which allows for the formation of Low Pressure Sytems)

With regards to the GFS, the shortwave over Alaska is significantly more energized. This, in turn, injects not only more energy into the TCV, it also changes the momentum. It's physics. Think of it like this: If a vehicle is traveling at a relatively slow rate of speed, turning the steering wheel will produce a much gentler turn. Whereas, if a vehicle is moving at a high rate of speed, cutting the wheel will produce a more dramatic effect/turn. With the GFS, the vehicle is way over the speed limit. With some of the other models, the vehicle is traveling much slower. 

One more note - there are a plethora of studies on how TPV affects downstream weather (IE, the Lower 48). All of them, however, come to 2 conclusions.

1) Stick to Ensembles as they are better versed to handle the spread caused by the dynamics of this particular weather phenomena.

2) TPV interactions are notorious for forecast busts, especially 6+ days out. 

NOTE: The Graphic included below illustrates the TCV . The air is rotating around the North Pole and the red bold line are the outer edges of the TCV. The Green which shows within the blue is an example of a TPV. This is a good illustration of how the TPV can be -and is- affected by the TCV and other energies within the TCV.

Remember - Weather is the physics of the interconnected atmosphere of the planet we live on. Everything is intertwined.

[Rickrd]

19 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Posted this in the OH/MV Thread, however, I figured I would post it here also. 

My 2 Cents:

From what I can see, it appears that the TPV (see below) is being affected by a shortwave in Alaska which is impacting the tropospheric circumpolar vortex (TCV - Please see picture below for additional assistance as I explain), which in turn is altering how the TPV itself is manifesting, thus changing the baroclinic zones and allowing for bombogenesis near the Midwest rather than the EC. So.. let me break that down. 

The TPV is known as the Tropopause Polar Vortex. We will get to this in a minute, however, let's start with the TCV.  The TCV is a large rotating column of air which is loosely wound around the Poles. In our case, we are affected by the one rotating around the North Pole. This loosely rotating column of air is centered on the North Pole and can reach as far South as the Southern United States, though this Southern boundary tends to fluctuate between Canada and the Southern US (this is a bird's eye view explanation. There are some very technical and intricate features which I am glancing over). 

That being said, let's get into the TPV. The TPV is what most people think of when the Polar Vortex is mentioned (ie media, public, etc). What a TPV actually is, is a lobe within the TCV. Basically, It is a HP System which forms within the rotating column of air that is the TCV. When this lobe develops, it is normally what is responsible for an Artic Air Intrusion into the United States. The thing about TPVs is that they are rather susceptible to other energies within the TCV. 

In this particular case, the TPV is being affected by a vigorous piece of energy over Alaska. This piece of energy (a shortwave) is still poorly sampled and -as mentioned previously- is in no man's land Alaska. The difference in the current models appear to be attributed to this shortwave feature. What appears to be happening is that the models which are keeping the shortwave less vigorous are thereby keeping the TCV with less perturbation (or ridges and troughs - ie more zonal). This zonal flow allows the TPV to settle further into the center of the country. In other words - the more zonal flow changes the momentum and thus where the artic air intrusion first begins. In turn, this changes the baroclinic zone and therefore where the Low-Pressure System eventually sets up. (Baroclinicity/Baroclinic Zone is the temperature difference over a short distance which allows for the formation of Low Pressure Sytems)

With regards to the GFS, the shortwave over Alaska is significantly more energized. This, in turn, injects not only more energy into the TCV, it also changes the momentum. It's physics. Think of it like this: If a vehicle is traveling at a relatively slow rate of speed, turning the steering wheel will produce a much gentler turn. Whereas, if a vehicle is moving at a high rate of speed, cutting the wheel will produce a more dramatic effect/turn. With the GFS, the vehicle is way over the speed limit. With some of the other models, the vehicle is traveling much slower. 

One more note - there are a plethora of studies on how TPV affects downstream weather (IE, the Lower 48). All of them, however, come to 2 conclusions.

1) Stick to Ensembles as they are better versed to handle the spread caused by the dynamics of this particular weather phenomena.

2) TPV interactions are notorious for forecast busts, especially 6+ days out. 

NOTE: The Graphic included below illustrates the TCV . The air is rotating around the North Pole and the red bold line are the outer edges of the TCV. The Green which shows within the blue is an example of a TPV. This is a good illustration of how the TPV can be -and is- affected by the TCV and other energies within the TCV.

Remember - Weather is the physics of the interconnected atmosphere of the planet we live on. Everything is intertwined.

2 cents? That’s more like 25 cents! Thx for posting. 

[Iceresistance]

Sounds like that my area is going to get some snow around Christmas Eve, it might be from an unrelated system that comes to the plains after this one.

[Rickrd]

So 0z Euro this run is big time GL cutter. Here’s a snip it. 

[Rickrd]

Chicago gets annihilated!

[Rickrd]

Wow. Pretty amazing this run no matter where your backyard is. Won’t be final solution. But makes one giddy. 

[Weathertop]

6z GFS. Two parts…the first starting Thurs and then another on Friday. Not sure if it shows a classic primary to coastal secondary transfer or two separate lows back to back?

 

[PA road DAWG]

Ehhhh.  Never like seeing the euro consistent with the cutter. 

[Weathertop]

15 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Ehhhh.  Never like seeing the euro consistent with the cutter. 

Agreed. Lost overnight Ensemble support from GEPS and most Ensemble support from EPS, too, for coastal storm. Trending in the wrong direction for big East Coast snows.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Weathertop

[MaineJay]

No thanks. 4-6" of rain, coastal flooding.  This is from an episode of, "when amplified patterns go wrong ".