Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 12, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 12, 2022 (edited) The 00z GFS looks improved.. Crawler. I thought I saw somewhere that it should be fully sampled soon? Edited December 12, 2022 by Penn State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 12, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 12, 2022 00z GDPS largely unchanged, but maybe a tad colder it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, Penn State said: The 00z GFS looks improved.. Crawler. I thought I saw somewhere that it should be fully sampled soon? Yeah, that was me haha.. just looking at the 500, looked like it would be fully onshore this run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, that was me haha.. just looking at the 500, looked like it would be fully onshore this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Im still on team GFS. Although, CMC started looking a skotche better tonight. 😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Im still on team GFS. Although, CMC started looking a skotche better tonight. 😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Starting to shape up as a i80 north snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 18 hours ago, JDClapper said: WPC update.. interior looking solid for some decent sleet/snow. Of course, 5+ days away, so... WPC Updates, from just before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 CTP disco update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 12, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 12, 2022 GYX EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 12, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 12, 2022 Euro stronger with the plains storm, and further north, results in a stronger push in warm air and further north coastal. Used to be that the bias was the GFS was too fast, Euro held things back, but not sure with all the "fixes" to both if that still holds true. But you can't undo 10 years of biases in humans. If it still holds, then the answer is in the middle. Also the high over Quebec is weaker on the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Atr we just ignoring the Euro? It's dramatically warmer for all, with less snow, and screws people on the southern end of good snows that the gfs has. EURO vs GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 12, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 12, 2022 Second way to look is multipanels, which they could make fit on a screen but they don't. Anyhoo.. the Euro does appear faster panel to panel. Which is against the bias I mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 come on need this to move southeast please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 12, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 12, 2022 Is there a way we can shrink the photos on some of these posts automatically @Mainiac? Is there a way to default to 600X800 or something like that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 55 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Atr we just ignoring the Euro? It's dramatically warmer for all, with less snow, and screws people on the southern end of good snows that the gfs has. EURO vs GFS The short answer is yes, we are ignoring the Eruo. 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, JDClapper said: The short answer is yes, we are ignoring the Eruo. 🤣 lol yup LR NAM is cold, icy and I would imagine will be elevation dependent in my neck of the woods. Dont see a monster push of warm air from the south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: lol yup LR NAM is cold, icy and I would imagine will be elevation dependent in my neck of the woods. Dont see a monster push of warm air from the south. Trending cooler at 850s the past 3 runs. And the Primary is getting weaker each run. Edit.. primary actually getting stronger each run. Got my numbers mixed up. Edited December 12, 2022 by JDClapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 (edited) @JDClapper primary dying is whole key. allows coastal to strengthen, make some cold air and keep coastal warmth at bay i know you know that i know that you know that already brah Edited December 12, 2022 by MDBlueridge 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 (edited) From Strerling dscio: There remains subtle spread and inherent fluctuations between different global guidance on a run to run basis. Expect fluctuations in model guidance to continue, with guidance continuing to narrow down the potential outcomes of storm track, intensity, and wintry precip duration as the ULL trough/energy associated with this storm becomes better sampled over the Pacific NW. Ensemble guidance continues to support an ULL moving through the northern Ohio Valley early Thursday and eventually stalling into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday before eventually shearing out by Sunday. How far south the ULL tracks in the Ohio Valley in turn will influence where/when a coastal low develops in the vicinity of the Mid Atlantic in this Miller B setup. Confidence continues to increase in a prolonged wintry event ongoing to start the long term at 12Z Thursday. Given the anomalous high pressure north of the region and surface ridge extending down the spine of the Appalachians, wintry precipitation (all types) is likely across the entire area Thursday morning. Given the forecast 850/925 mb temps, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain area all a possible. Areas east of the Blue Ridge will change to all rain quicker. Those locations west of the Blue Ridge, especially sheltered valleys prone to hold onto the cold air longer, will see a mixture of wintry precip through the day on Thursday into Thursday night and possible Friday. Travel impacts are becoming increasingly likely during this timeframe. As the ULL moves offshore, there is the potential for a period of upslope snow as several vorticity maxes move over the Appalachians, starting Friday into Saturday/Saturday night. This will be highly dependent on the aforementioned system and ULL pattern. Strong winds are possible areawide on the backside of the low. Temps will be below normal behind the system with high pressure building in late Sunday. Edited December 12, 2022 by MDBlueridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 (edited) GFS back to sit and stall lol P-Types are a guess. But a good bit of frozen precip and cold/upslope behind. Edited December 12, 2022 by MDBlueridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: GFS back to sit and stall lol P-Types are a guess. But a good bit of frozen precip and cold/upslope behind. Fitty/fitty doing work ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: GFS back to sit and stall lol P-Types are a guess. But a good bit of frozen precip and cold/upslope behind. Yeah, its a 24-36 hour event even here.. which is highly unusual. Typical event, 8-12 hours. But, nothing typical about this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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