HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 25 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Its not as sexy as we saw days ago, but NEPA, verbatim, still seems to cash in on significant accums. 🤷♂️ GFS is a foot of snow NEPA into SENY. If PARD ain't happy with that then he probably isn't going to be happy very often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 BTV NWS is telling me to be patient: By the 12Z NCEP model suite on Tuesday, we should have a much better idea on how this system will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 58 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Dacks and greens special this run. Only 18-20 GFS mood swings left. All model runs will henceforth be referred to as mood swings. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 WPC update.. interior looking solid for some decent sleet/snow. Of course, 5+ days away, so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 11, 2022 But I thought it's the GFS that sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, MaineJay said: But I thought it's the GFS that sucks. Oyyyy wtf is going on with models Edited December 11, 2022 by Cdfarabaugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, MaineJay said: But I thought it's the GFS that sucks. Starting to feel more and more like the standard issue 2-5" with mixing/changeover complications these past several suites. I miss the 2 foot crawler scenario that is so common in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 CTP starting to walk away from big snows as well. Updated text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 11, 2022 59 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said: Oyyyy wtf is going on with models Knuckleballs are harder to hit than the 4 seamer for models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 (edited) Still a good sample of members with a decent event in there. A few big ones (9"+). Also, prob 25% duds by a glance. So are we riding out a few rough suites (are they too warm?) And will they lean back cooler.. or does it get worse from here? Edited December 11, 2022 by JDClapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted December 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 hours ago, JDClapper said: CTP starting to walk away from big snows as well. Updated text. 2 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said: Oyyyy wtf is going on with models 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Knuckleballs are harder to hit than the 4 seamer for models. I would not be walking away from any big snows right now. Models are trying to figure out this pattern. You have a rather strong Negative and West based NAO combined with a Negative EPO and Strongly Negative AO. This is why I believe you are beginning to see the primary being shunted south while the secondary is simultaneously being shunted west and south. Give these runs time. You'll likely see the secondary correct a bit and I highly doubt the primary cuts N of Chicago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 18z NAm pressing back a little more than 12z and 6z. 🤷♂️ <insert general LR NAM disclaimer> 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 18z NAM brings some tidings of joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 32 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 18z NAM brings some tidings of joy. Look at the slop show the 18z GFS run was. Trying to kill primary. Slop, stop, etc. Bah humbug. Changes afoot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Look at the slop show the 18z GFS run was. Trying to kill primary. Slop, stop, etc. Bah humbug. Changes afoot. Its another banger for yours truly into NEPA and NY. Cant believe Im on team GFS at the moment. The world is a crazy place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Uscg Ast said: I would not be walking away from any big snows right now. Models are trying to figure out this pattern. You have a rather strong Negative and West based NAO combined with a Negative EPO and Strongly Negative AO. This is why I believe you are beginning to see the primary being shunted south while the secondary is simultaneously being shunted west and south. Give these runs time. You'll likely see the secondary correct a bit and I highly doubt the primary cuts N of Chicago. It's not so much the track, as I agree, it's far from nailed down, it's about a cold air feed. The occluded ocean storm brings, basically, a warm front in from the NE. We'd need to see rapid deepening of the low to overcome the warm environment. These slow closed low have so much opportunity to drag up warmth. With the lack of consistency in modeling beyond D4, hard to discount most solutions. Heck, the funniest thing would be seeing it trend towards the weird pancake runs the GFS tossed out a few runs ago. At hour 100, I like to have at least 5° of buffer at 850mb. I'd say 8 out 10 times, we see them trend warmer in the final 48-60 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I'd be dubious at 48 hrs honestly. We are far from having a model show us we can trust it. Trust it period. At any range. Full stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 CTP with a recent tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 (edited) 33andrain forum is super quiet you could hear a pin drop. I guess that means it’s looking grim for NYC Edited December 12, 2022 by PA road DAWG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 12, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 12, 2022 CIPS analogs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 42 minutes ago, MaineJay said: CIPS analogs I'll take a #4 supersized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, TheRex said: I'll take a #4 supersized. I think we all would. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Awaiting the 0z emotional rollercoaster 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted December 12, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: CIPS analogs This is a great menu! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Nam hr 84. Ice and sleet storm. 😕 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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