Rickrd Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 0z GFS Ensemble 2022-12-11 24 hr 10:1 snowfall for time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 0z ICON I'm not in the NE but saw this a few minutes ago & for the ICON thatscreally impressive! ICON usually under does snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 0z euro 2022-12-11 24 hr 10:1 snowfall for time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 11, 2022 EPS slowed the wave down. Too slow and the lead storm can't help pin the cold ahead of this one. We need that cold to force redevelopment on the triple point ASAP, else the primary holds on too long. 11/0z 10/12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 11, 2022 11/0z suite was a step back as a whole. Cold might be chasing the precip again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 11, 2022 Need this to reverse, only gonna happen if the wave spacing shrinks, either get lead one shows, or our storm needs to get on it's damn horse. Last 4 EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 11, 2022 This is when we risk the "big storms come NW" adage burning us. You can see on the H8 temps from the ECMWF how important is is for the departing system to provide cold for this one. Only when the warmth is "pinched off" can the secondary form along the triple point on the coast. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 southern Mid-Atlantic on th edge as per usual. Sterling’s Dicussion LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... H5 ridging will remain overhead locally Wed Am as a 1035 mb + high remains over eastern Quebec. Dry conditions are expected during the day Wednesday, though high clouds will increase through the day. There remains considerable spread and fluctuations between different global guidance on a run to run basis, though the GFS/GEFS have slowly trended toward those of the ECMWF/EPS. Expect fluctuations in model guidance to continue, with the benchmark for model runs and consistency likely starting Sunday afternoon/night as the parent energy associated with this storm becomes better sampled over the Pacific NW. Overall ensemble guidance continues to support an ULL moving through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Northeast/offshore into the Atlantic by Friday/Saturday. How far south the ULL tracks in the Ohio Valley in turn will influence where/when a coastal low develops in the vicinity of the Mid Atlantic. Uncertainty remains regarding any wintry precipitation. Given the anomalous high pressure north of the region and surface ridge extending down the spine of the Appalachians, wintry precipitation (all types) is possible across the entire area in the late Wednesday to early Friday timeframe with higher chances along and west of the Blue Ridge mountains. Given the forecast 850/925 mb temps, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain area all a possibility. There is the potential for travel impacts during this timeframe. As the ULL moves offshore, there is the potential for a period of upslope snow as several vorticity maxes move over the Appalachians. Models hint at 24+ hours of QPF across the mountains starting Friday into Saturday/Saturday night. This will be highly dependent on the aforementioned system and ULL pattern, will continue to monitor. Strong winds are possible areawide on the backside of the low. Temps will be below normal behind the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Wpc updates. Granted this is usually a suite behind (updated at 12am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 EPS trend for 1am Friday. Can see how that primary is holding on longer. Tight cluster of members on the Delmarva. Good spot, if the primary wasnt holding on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 CTP overnight update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 (edited) Really need that confluence and 50/50 to do work here. Slow the progression/speed of the coastal low so it develops further south and when it’s bombs out it pulls in the cold and wraps the moisture with it. That’s why blocks are so important. Helps those at lower latitudes really get into those wound up storms. Storms that are usually wound up further north. Edited December 11, 2022 by PA road DAWG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I’ll most certainly take a near 10” mean on the gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: I’ll most certainly take a near 10” mean on the gefs 2.5" snow depth bump on EPS, which is actually pretty good still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 (edited) Something to keep an eye on moving forward…. the confluence and initial cold press over SE Canada and Maine. If I recall correctly that’s always undermodeled (goddamn January 2016). A harder initial press will force the redeveloping coastal low to form further south and east before it eventually lifts and erodes. Could be the saving grace for some members of this forum. I know it’s garbage at this range, but the long range 12z NAM showing better confluence than the previous run. Edited December 11, 2022 by PA road DAWG 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said: Something to keep an eye on moving forward…. the confluence and initial cold press over SE Canada and Maine. If I recall correctly that’s always undermodeled (goddamn January 2016). A harder initial press will force the redeveloping coastal low to form further south and east before it eventually lifts and erodes. Could be the saving grace for some members of this forum. I know it’s garbage at this range, but the long range 12z NAM showing better confluence than the previous run. This is absolutely right. The one possibility I see being displayed for my hill country area is ice, followed by cold and upslope snow. But at this time, we're nowhere near set in stone. We need today's little bugger out of the way as well. The entire relationship between the primary and coastal low needs to be ironed out. It's very easy to make the case for a warmer or colder solution currently. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 11, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, MDBlueridge said: This is absolutely right. The one possibility I see being displayed for my hill country area is ice, followed by cold and upslope snow. But at this time, we're nowhere near set in stone. We need today's little bugger out of the way as well. The entire relationship between the primary and coastal low needs to be ironed out. It's very easy to make the case for a warmer or colder solution currently. I’m thinking this too. CAD seems to always be undermodeled for my region in SCPA. I can’t count the times we are supposed to get to 38-40, and the temps just camp out at 30-32. Looks to be quite cold heading into the event in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 28 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Something to keep an eye on moving forward…. the confluence and initial cold press over SE Canada and Maine. If I recall correctly that’s always undermodeled (goddamn January 2016). A harder initial press will force the redeveloping coastal low to form further south and east before it eventually lifts and erodes. Could be the saving grace for some members of this forum. I know it’s garbage at this range, but the long range 12z NAM showing better confluence than the previous run. Yep, just these minor little trends with a little more press from the north can pay off for more and more of us. NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Reminder, the main feature should be very well sampled starting with 0z tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Gfs is blah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, PA road DAWG said: Gfs is blah Its not as sexy as we saw days ago, but NEPA, verbatim, still seems to cash in on significant accums. 🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Also, it is crawling. 1pm Thu to 1am Sat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Its not as sexy as we saw days ago, but NEPA, verbatim, still seems to cash in on significant accums. 🤷♂️ Dacks and greens special this run. Only 18-20 GFS mood swings left. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Dacks and greens special this run. Only 18-20 GFS mood swings left. Icy mess down this way. We'll see though. Long way yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 11, 2022 Cold can't dig it's heels in because the departing ocean storm is so wound up, that a warm front actually comes in from the NE. A very unusual setup. Dynamics could overcome some of this, but we are way too far out to get hung up on details. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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