MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Ukie looks like it might be a tad warm. Have to wait for pivotal maps. Natorino has the big storm but its a hair warm. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Hot off the press, WPC prob of 0.25" sleet/snow 3 days worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Uh oh!! Lol. Let the warm cutter runs begin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The main feature should fully sampled starting 0z Monday. Noticed #1 has been speeding up and not as deep as previous few runs. #2 is staying separate instead of getting absorbed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro will also be warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Euro will also be warmer Cutter Bah humbug Fun evolution tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Cutter Bah humbug Fun evolution tho Block doing its work on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro is north west of i95 crush job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 How much in Philly? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Sorry had to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Poco said: Sorry had to Hopefully a slushy inch or two because that usually means 20+ for me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Poco said: How much in Philly? Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 10, 2022 (edited) So the GooFuS is back on board with a coastal/inland storm I see....shocking 🙄 Gonna be a long week. Now we just need HM to break out the big daddy hat and we can watch it all go poof from the models....good thing I just freshened up the cabinet with a bottle of Woodforde's Edited December 10, 2022 by telejunkie 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, Poco said: Sorry had to I miss that guy. I have a feeling when he was younger, he used the phrase "Are we there yet?" many many MANY times from the backseat of his parents' car. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 12z Ops 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 12z Ops models seem to be struggling a bit with convective feedback...but not horrible. Still making them a bit jumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2022 EPS giving me about a 2 outta 3 shot at accumulation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, TheRex said: I miss that guy. I have a feeling when he was younger, he used the phrase "Are we there yet?" many many MANY times from the backseat of his parents' car. He was just a kid back in those accu days. Amazing to realize that sone of us have known each other for 15 years now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, MaineJay said: EPS giving me about a 2 outta 3 shot at accumulation. Down this way, high probability of measurable white. But whats interesting is the noticsble batch of members that go down quickly on Friday. Many must be seeing the mix/changeover scenario possibilty. Question is, does that make sense with the block? I dunno, Im just a Business Analyst for. Dental Insurance company. Off my back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Poco said: He was just a kid back in those accu days. Amazing to realize that sone of us have known each other for 15 years now I started accu during the Oct storm 2011. Stumbled on it, didnt know such a weather underground existed. Blew my mind. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Eps members, many inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 New England area forecaster, food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Sterling thoughts for the southern mid Atlantic && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An area of strong high pressure located over eastern Canada will extend south down the East Coast bringing sunny and dry conditions as upper-level ridging moves over the area on Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the 40s for most with those at higher elevations staying in the 30s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s for most with those near the Chesapeake Bay and metro areas in the low 30s. By midweek, a strong area of low pressure will be approaching our area from the west. The primary area of low pressure will pass to our northwest into the great lakes Thursday into Friday while secondary low pressure develops along the coast and moves up to near New England. There still remains a good bit of model spread. Wintry precipitation of all types are possible early Thursday morning through Friday, with the highest chances of wintry precipitation being along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. We will continue to monitor this system as it gets closer and confidence increases. As the system moves offshore, temperatures will be below normal. && snow to rain for my neck of the woods , and maybe all rain…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 (edited) WPC extended 217pm Through around midweek, model guidance has been and continues to be well clustered for the overall pattern setup involving a vigorous surface low consolidating in the central Plains and shifting toward the Midwest. While there remain some minor wiggles in the timing of the surface low track and its associated fronts, with recent CMC runs on the faster side and UKMET runs a little slower through the 00Z cycle, they seem to be converging a little better for the 12Z cycle. By day 4/Wednesday and beyond, there has been quite a bit more model waffling with the evolution of the upper and surface lows particularly in the deterministic GFS and GEFS ensembles. Yesterday's 12Z, 18Z, and today's 00Z runs indicated a faster weakening and progression eastward of the upper low (and shunting of a surface low directly east) likely due at least in part to interaction with an upstream Pacific upper low that other models kept separate. However, the 06Z GFS and GEFS trended back toward other guidance with these features, and their 12Z runs appear even more in line. So hopefully the earlier GFS/GEFS runs were an anomaly and models stick with better agreement on the type of solution that has been most consistent in the ECMWF suite--namely, the upper low gradually tracking eastward late week which helps to form a surface low in the Southeast that looks to track as a nor'easter near the coast. The CMC had been faster with that surface low for a few runs now, but the 12Z came in slower. There is still uncertainty with the details of the exact track of this potential nor'easter, which will have notable implications for precipitation types across the East, but at least confidence in the pattern on a broad scale is rising especially given the recent 12Z models. The WPC forecast leaned toward the more agreeable 00Z ECMWF/EC ensemble mean and 06Z GEFS mean by the latter half of the forecast period, which was similar to the previous WPC forecast and now to the newer 12Z guidance. Edited December 10, 2022 by Poco 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Im proud of this group. I wouldve bet money the euro snow map wouldve been posted. Quite the tooth rotting run. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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