Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 10, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 10, 2022 Another thing to keep in mind.. this storm is, and will be, a great case study for future events this winter. I think we all pay attention to model trends and bias, and this is the perfect opportunity to learn. I am curious.. if the GFS folds back to other guidance.. will this be a common theme? The Euro seemed to underperform over the last few winters; however, with the blocking pattern.. it may just be more effective? If the GFS wins out.. You have to give the update some credibility, even though it’s seemed very inconsistent to most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 10, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 10, 2022 00z EPS looks great.. although there are some members that skip away to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Gefs is a big hit. Glad to see it come back on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, Penn State said: Another thing to keep in mind.. this storm is, and will be, a great case study for future events this winter. I think we all pay attention to model trends and bias, and this is the perfect opportunity to learn. I am curious.. if the GFS folds back to other guidance.. will this be a common theme? The Euro seemed to underperform over the last few winters; however, with the blocking pattern.. it may just be more effective? If the GFS wins out.. You have to give the update some credibility, even though it’s seemed very inconsistent to most of us. I tend to only clump into 2 week periods. The blocking won't last forever. Doesn't mean we can see a similar pattern set up again. We just saw a bunch of storms moving up the St Lawrence. Now, they seem prone to driving ESE off the coast. As models have been showing the ocean storms battering down the heights in front of the approaching continental trofs, not allowing them to turn up the coast. There are some similarities to 09-10 in some respects, but it doesn't necessarily mean snowfall distribution will exactly match. Despite the GFS showing erratic solutions, it hasn't been alone, and a blended approach would still likely show the most skill. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Ok. It’s time we take this serious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Gefs is a big hit. Glad to see it come back on board Oh man, it's optimistic PARD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 40 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Ok. It’s time we take this serious No more need for me to bah humbug. PARD just stuck a fork in this one. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 In laws are coming from Bloomingburg, NY to Toledo, OH on the 17th. Will this storm be out of the area by then? oh and congrats on the storm! I’m glad someone will be getting snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 (edited) Just now, NWOhioChaser said: In laws are coming from Bloomingburg, NY to Toledo, OH on the 17th. Will this storm be out of the area by then? oh and congrats on the storm! I’m glad someone will be getting snow! Yea I think so. Not sure which part of i80 they get on in Pa, but going up 5 mile hill to the poconos may be a little sketchy lol Edited December 10, 2022 by PA road DAWG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: In laws are coming from Bloomingburg, NY to Toledo, OH on the 17th. Will this storm be out of the area by then? oh and congrats on the storm! I’m glad someone will be getting snow! How are they traveling? By plane? Horse and buggy? Food stops? Does your mother in law have a strong bladder? Many more details needed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The glorious beauty of the west based -nao and 50/50. Doing work son 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 33 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: How are they traveling? By plane? Horse and buggy? Food stops? Does your mother in law have a strong bladder? Many more details needed. Yeah, this lack of detail is like getting emails at work saying, "this application isnt working" .. ok, go on... 🤓 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Gefs showing some good ones too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 (edited) EPS members have 3ish clusters in CPA. Nothing, 3-6, 6-10. Of course some random monsters too. Edited December 10, 2022 by JDClapper 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 (edited) Wow. Crazy how different the gfs is in only two runs. Gfs will be a bomber Edited December 10, 2022 by PA road DAWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Wow. Crazy how different the gfs is in only two runs. Gfs will be a bomber RIP interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: RIP interior Crusher. Bah humbug 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Gfs with a 500 mile shift lol. What a joke of a model at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 hours ago, MDBlueridge said: How are they traveling? By plane? Horse and buggy? Food stops? Does your mother in law have a strong bladder? Many more details needed. By car. They are planning to stretch the trip out in two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, NWOhioChaser said: By car. They are planning to stretch the trip out in two days. What type of car? Snack preferences? Hotel choice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Wow. Crazy how different the gfs is in only two runs. Gfs will be a bomber 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Gfs with a 500 mile shift lol. What a joke of a model at times CMC tracks inland a bit, pushes the heaviest snow accums into the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, JDClapper said: CMC tracks inland a bit, pushes the heaviest snow accums into the Apps. I'm guessing we need the lead storm to be slow enough to keep the cold pinned in, but not so much it squashes the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2022 Ukie looks like it might be a tad warm. Have to wait for pivotal maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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