Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2022 It's possible the GFS is in it's, "I lost it, before I find it again" phase. Ukie and GFS look s little different. Models have really struggled beyond D4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 9, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 9, 2022 The 12z EPS looks good to me.. lots of clustering near the coast, low MSLPs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 9, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 9, 2022 EPS v op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted December 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 hours ago, PA road DAWG said: Haha yes! The GMAO model is back! Good to see you again Poc, as always your insight is greatly appreciated and valued. this system has some pretty wild potential if all comes to fruition. High latitude blocking will always do wonders for some. The models are starting to pick up on the strong west based -nao and 50/50 block. low trying to cut runs into a roadblock with nowhere to go but south and redevelop off the coast. Models have been consistently pressing this main system further south which allows a quicker and further south coastal take over. As always, it’s something to keep an eye on, but this has some serious potential! Been a while since I had a legit white Christmas, and this may certainly do it for some of us. Below is the run to run difference. Notice the -nao further press west and south and the 50/50 more tucked towards se canada. This forces the central US low to swing south and redevelop. The gefs and even eps have been trending better and better for snow along the EC I agree, however, i think the EPO attempting to dig in will be huge. NAO forbids the escape & EPO/AO forbids the App Runner. Lots of energy to play with. Well see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2022 Last 4 EPS MSLP clusters. One question is, are the ensembles under dispersed? that's to say, not capturing all the possibilities. Another is, can it turn up the coast? The blocking could drive it E or even SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Op is out of range. However, EPS "bump" on the mean is pretty nice, about 2". Tends to result in good things 7 out of 10 times. (Scientific research, confirmed stat) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 9, 2022 EPS with a roughly 60% chance of accumulations at my house. Definitely more bullish than the previous run, but 6+ days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Uscg Ast said: I agree, however, i think the EPO attempting to dig in will be huge. NAO forbids the escape & EPO/AO forbids the App Runner. Lots of energy to play with. Well see. Yes Time will tell. OUT OF THE TWO I think total suppression is def more likely than a cutter at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Gfs with back to back total suppression runs. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Gfs with back to back total suppression runs. Hmmm GFS has been amazing and very consistent since its upgrade. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Would be quite the luck of the east to have suppression when it would finally be cold enough for a widespread snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 9, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 9, 2022 38 minutes ago, JDClapper said: GFS has been amazing and very consistent since its upgrade. 0 ⭐️..Do not recommend. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Storm yes cold temps not so much will see still to far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 (edited) 18z gfs still making it’s terrible taffy, likely overdoing it at this point 12z jma worth a S and Gs post some little Japanese snowman have been whispering In my ear that they may be planning an attack a few days prior to Christmas, they crazy little guys ya know Edited December 9, 2022 by Poco 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 19 minutes ago, Poco said: 18z gfs still making it’s terrible taffy, likely overdoing it at this point 12z jma worth a S and Gs post some little Japanese snowman have been whispering In my ear that they may be planning an attack a few days prior to Christmas, they crazy little guys ya know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Extended forecast disco wpc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Another swing and miss by the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said: Another swing and miss by the gfs That whole GFS run was a nightmare of yet more massive disappointment. Edited December 10, 2022 by Bradjl2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2022 10/6z GEFS comes more in line with other guidance. 2 day trend EPS sagging this SW a little over the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 10, 2022 6 days out still, so expect these to change, perhaps significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 0z Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WPC probs, 7am Thu to 7am Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 0z EPS has a 4" bump in CPA. Thats pretty large. Several big memebers in there. Op still a high outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 10, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro FTW! You have to shave a little off as you move north, but the 24 hour map doesn’t cover it all. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Ensembles say snowstorm. I say bah humbug! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now