JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 12k is warm (pictured) .. but looks like 3k is still in line with pretty much the majority up to this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) 3k ice locked in. Run after run. Know your area. You normally get douched with ice? Or not? Edited December 14, 2022 by MDBlueridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Not so hi-res Nam. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 21z SREF Snowfall Mean. Then, 1"+/4"+ prob from 7am Thur-7am Fri and then 7am Fri-7am Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Asking myself, what do I trust more... 49/50 12z EPS members or one 0z 12k NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 12z GEPS tracks more tucked while 12z GEFS is offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 0Z Rdps looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, NEPAsnow said: 0Z Rdps looks good A PARD special on the RDPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Some 10:1 snowfall trends from RDPS, NAM and GFS their past 4 runs (GFS only goes to 18z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Looks like the gfs hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: Looks like the gfs hold serve The one thing I'm having some issues with the GFS on is how it like to chase convection .. and is that resulting in a "colder" than likely output? Low should really be near NJ coast, but it's way offshore with a T-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I mean, as a weenie, I love the GFS output. But.. realistically... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Like, yes please. But... *reaches for the salt* 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Like, yes please. But... *reaches for the salt* Man the port being the PA 🎯 .. toss right? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, WeatherFlash said: Man the port being the PA 🎯 .. toss right? Lol For real. lol I've seen enough for the evening. Still feeling 4-7" is a fair range here, with a better potential to bust higher, than to dud out. Still 36 hours away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 0z GFS. Holding steady. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 Yea looking like we maybe get a burst of snow and sleet and then go over to FZR for a bit dayside Thursday. I would rather just not be trapped at 30-32 through a good chunk of the rain. With dew points in the upper teens low 20s we stand a chance to fight some of the surface warming. Enjoy the snow north of Harrisburg and in the Poconos! should lay a decent base to start the cold weather. Which should help us for future storms in the coming two week period. Take a look at skew t's tomorrow evening to get a better feel how things progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 Really the warm push aloft is rather marginal but it is definitely enough to switch over my area, much of MD, and much of SE PA and NJ outside of NW areas. The tricky part is always NYC area. The city itself should be all rain outside of an initial burst of snow/sleet to begin with. Just NW of the city though totally different story by then the WAA push will be aimed offshore/LI region and should maybe transition briefly to sleet which may cut down on totals. Poconos I feel should be all snow, again can't be upset though on a small chance sleet pushes through, Allentown should go over to sleet but probably avoid the FZR. Elevation will definitely play a much more important role in SNE strong east flow will roar low level temps at lower elevations to be rain while a simple 800-1000' could make the difference to stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: The one thing I'm having some issues with the GFS on is how it like to chase convection .. and is that resulting in a "colder" than likely output? Low should really be near NJ coast, but it's way offshore with a T-storm. Good point. Been trying to figure that out too. Is the GFS still south of the others too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 What up peeps, I literally have no idea why some of us have moved here or the story behind that, but I'm glad I found this place. It would be weird not to see some of you post every winter season. I guess I'll still be using both sites for now? Either way, glad to be here. Hoping for 6" here before the change over, but very complex system. Happy holiday season everyone! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted December 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizz said: What up peeps, I literally have no idea why some of us have moved here or the story behind that, but I'm glad I found this place. It would be weird not to see some of you post every winter season. I guess I'll still be using both sites for now? Either way, glad to be here. Hoping for 6" here before the change over, but very complex system. Happy holiday season everyone! Welcome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 I see it as everyone can do as they please. There should never be restrictions on what site someone wants to use or visit. In the end we are all here to discuss weather. Glad to see a familiar name around. Hope you enjoy the snow up there a solid 3-6" looks reasonable. How intense that warm push will be is important and a potentially a telling sign of how we can we trust temp forecasts aloft and at the surface. NAM/ FV3 rather aggressive with the warmth aloft pushing almost all the way back to IPT, RGEM throws it back to about Harrisburg to Scranton, GFS probably one of the colder solutions overall but still changes it from about Harrisburg to Allentown. CMC similar to RGEM (no surprise there) Overall I wanna say we track along or just east of 95 with the low while having thunderstorms take-off just east of Delmarva. GFS definitely chasing convection a bit as JDClapper mentioned probably gives it that cold bias. The airmass is marginal at best unfortunately interior hold on cold so they should hover 30-32 but coastal plain will be inundated by late afternoon thursday. If we had lower dews like single digits maybe we could have had a more snow to brief icing situation but it looks like maybe a coating at best and then we may transition quickly to FZR around me. The morning/ midday commute may be a bit rough in locations NW of 95. I expect advisories to go up west of 95 for less than .1" of icing and maybe an inch of snow. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 That is quite a bit of heavy precip setting up to the SW. Quite thumpy looking if you ask me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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