Rickrd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Junk run Lol. I was waiting for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Not so concerned about totals and all that just yet. Placement of everything is key, the rest will follow. Need the 50/50 and coastal low to churn in the right spot and it’ll all come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Sharper ridge over us this run. Leads to more warmth going up the west side of the apps and allows the secondary to form more over central VA than along the coast. Noticeably early on though there is better CAD recognition maybe this will change the outcome as we get closer in time. There is fine line being treaded here also more noticeable is the potential of an actual snowstorm in the higher terrain of SNE and into lower Maine. Have to watch that in future runs. 850s don't seem to peak until precip is just about over so there is some possibility the model is rushing the changeover a bit. We don't necessarily have an anchored high to the north but it is still very much present leading up to the precip push. Would be cool to see skew t's for the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Not a bad depiction I think it is overzealous with how much sleet there is in central PA but pretty good idea of the the slow temp change. If we can get the low about 50 miles east we could have a much colder solution again they always seem to run CAD out quickly. Aloft doesn't look great for us to stay all snow but also doesn't look all too terrible overall. Edited December 13, 2022 by so_whats_happening 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 I really hope this doesn't turn into an icing situation would like to see some snow before that even if it is an inch max. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 RTC2 says high to all of you BTW. TOLD HIM TO GET HIS ASS ON HERE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 0z gfs. Hr 90 Slight shift north this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 GFS is good candy, but just seems odd. Initial thump is not as thumpy, but then it crawls and dumps a foot overnight Thursday, which is new and different. Closer we get, the more confusing it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Stark differences in GFS and NAM. Meet in the middle? 🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 RGEM could be that middle ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Last post tonight.. heres NAM, GFS and CMC at hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Stark differences in GFS and NAM. Meet in the middle? 🤷♂️ Yea unfortunately it is LR NAM so take it with some grains but overall the GFS depiction really isnt bad at all. It definitely highlights the area im concerned with for snowfall back over central and NE PA. As we move closer in time for New England the higher terrain stands the best chance for all snow coastal areas battle the rain snow 95 corridor overall being a solid cutoff for frozen and non. Solid jet enhancement coming into play (left exit region) which helps with the thumpiness. NAM also had a similar jet towards the end of the run. Should help enhance for SNE (initially elevation benefits the most but temps could crash enough toward the coast to allow some accumulations across CT, RI, and SE Mass) and southern and coastal Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 0z frozen maps thru hr 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 0z Euro 12/13/22 precip type loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 0z Euro 13/14/22 clown maps for northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 Well then: Quote A pair of jet left exit regions arriving one after the other from the southwest will provide at least two periods of stronger forcing that could meld together and create steady moderate to heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour at times Thursday afternoon and evening, coinciding with the period of strongest llvl easterly flow. Although this upcoming event is an open wave embedded in the SW flow aloft, the increasing upper diffluence, and rapidly developing coastal low over the Delmarva Region Thursday night will create the potential for some heavy snow totals in excess of 10 inches across parts of the Central and Northern Mtns. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) NWS Sterling Sounding the alarm: Clouds will be thickening Wednesday morning in advance of storm system developing over the TN River Valley and southern mid- Atlantic. Overrunning precip is expected to move into the central Shenandoah Valley and central VA Wed afternoon. With very high 850- 700 mb thicknesses, main p-type through Thu is expected to be frza west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, fzra to rain east of Blue Ridge and I-95, and mainly rain along and east of I-95. This is going to be a very heavy precip event with even the "driest" top three ensemble members from the EPS showing an inch or more of liquid and median values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches. The source of cold air is likely too far north (northern Quebec or Newfoundland) to keep the cold air in place for a long period of time, however, in-situ damming from evaporational cooling will likely help strengthen the wedge. Given the amount of precip expected, there is the potential for signifcant icing to occur across the higher elevs and deeper valleys in eastern WV and western MD. For this reason, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for areas west of the Blue Ridge and Skyline Drive with likelihood of Ice Storm Warnings needed by Wed morning. The storm system will be crossing the area late Thu night with steady precip ending, but some wrap around rain/showers and mountain snow showers lingering into Fri. There is also the potential for strong winds across the mountains Thu that will have additional impacts on trees and powerlines with ice accretion and those in the mountain areas should be prepared for extended power outages and road closures. Circled area is a common ice area above 1500' elevation. Time to watch. Certainly looks like 1/2"+ is a possibility. Edited December 13, 2022 by MDBlueridge 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 13, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 13, 2022 The strong easterly winds over the gulf of Maine might be tough to overcome up here. Not expecting any impressive CAD with the lack of snow cover. Looking like a straight rain/snow situation. Worst case scenario is a little of both, and it's a paste bomb. I'll try to contribute some today. Tried working yesterday, but the kids got me sick, and I am wiped out after trying to work though it yesterday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 EPS up to a 5" mean snowdepth bump. Couple clusters in there. One in the 4/5" area and another in the 7/8" area. NAM still concerning. Hopefully just a hiccup and comes back to pappa in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 13, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, JDClapper said: EPS up to a 5" mean snowdepth bump. Couple clusters in there. One in the 4/5" area and another in the 7/8" area. NAM still concerning. Hopefully just a hiccup and comes back to pappa in a couple hours. Seems like you guys and gals are fighting the 850 mb warmth, where we are fighting the lowest levels. At least within 25 miles of the coast. Hoping ski country can cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Avp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Ipt @JDClapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Going to come down to a nowcast. The slightest jog 10-25 miles could mean 3-4 inches or 9-10 for some 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Moisture won’t be a problem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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