PA road DAWG Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, Rickrd said: Wide shot. Still snowing on our eastern Folks. Pocono crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, PA road DAWG said: Pocono crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Pocono crusher Wouldnt that be irony, after a rough weekend of warm model suites, we end up being north of the heaviest snow. 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Bummer that pivitoal crack map wont load for 18z NAM. Im having withdraw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 18z is suppression city after this potential storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Saw this kind of mentioned several hours ago and thought I'd check on it now. (Note, I know GFS/Euro aren't exactly the time stamp, but assume 1mb weakening, for 994mb) Actual VS forecast, the primary is weaker than forecast from the 18z runs (and 12z Euro). What are the implications? Will the 0z suite have a bit of a change? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 @JDClapper youre just filling time before 00z runs lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: @JDClapper youre just filling time before 00z runs lol Correct. Now enjoy these SREF forecasts. Trend past 2 runs for snowfall through 4am Friday. And then 21z through 7am Friday with change of 4+ and 1+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Some 21z SREF Pops from around the area. Williamsport, Scranton, Poughkeepsie and Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 @JDClapper @so_whats_happening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 Lets see how strong this CAD is, models always underestimate this. Im curious to know just how low the surface dew points can go. This will surely start out as snow in most locations north of the Mason dixon line as for Baltimore and DC still a little early but a solid wintry mix is expected just NW of the metro areas probably snow before making a transition to wintry mix and maybe rain, gotta watch when that warm push goes through it is small but there. If we do manage decent vvs through the area with this WAA like push could really make for some fun. Dont see much more than 6-8 inches in the highest locations (looks to be central PA and probably the Poconos) I would be perfectly fine with only seeing and inch or two and leaving the roads ok enough. Driving to work may not be so fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said: Lets see how strong this CAD is, models always underestimate this. Im curious to know just how low the surface dew points can go. This will surely start out as snow in most locations north of the Mason dixon line as for Baltimore and DC still a little early but a solid wintry mix is expected just NW of the metro areas probably snow before making a transition to wintry mix and maybe rain, gotta watch when that warm push goes through it is small but there. If we do manage decent vvs through the area with this WAA like push could really make for some fun. Dont see much more than 6-8 inches in the highest locations (looks to be central PA and probably the Poconos) I would be perfectly fine with only seeing and inch or two and leaving the roads ok enough. Driving to work may not be so fun. Sometimes the front end thumpers can really make a splash. A la philly snow bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Sometimes the front end thumpers can really make a splash. A la philly snow bowl They sure do like to around here. When we have a look like this leading into the WAA push it is no wonder you gotta think this will be one chilly system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 0z NAM did initiate 2mb weaker than its 18z forecast was showing.. and keeps it weaker at least early on in the run so far. Interesting to see downstream impacts here in 15 or 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 0z NAM did initiate 2mb weaker than its 18z forecast was showing.. and keeps it weaker at least early on in the run so far. Interesting to see downstream impacts here in 15 or 20 mins. I can hear the excitement in your posts coming thru my phone. My wife asked "whats that sound?" I said "a nerd" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 13, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, JDClapper said: 0z NAM did initiate 2mb weaker than its 18z forecast was showing.. and keeps it weaker at least early on in the run so far. Interesting to see downstream impacts here in 15 or 20 mins. Less warm overall maybe? There is one thing that probably also needs to be mentioned while this system looks to hit during the late morning early afternoon the cloud cover comes in thursday morning and to watch just how low temps can go. Wet bulb lower and things will be a bit rough. That and given nearly lowest sun angle of the year probably a decent chance for things to stick. Would also like to see the surface low depicted along the coast of Delaware/VA area rather than near the eastern shore or bay area. Solid 48 hours of shifting temps and surface lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said: Less warm overall maybe? There is one thing that probably also needs to be mentioned while this system looks to hit during the late morning early afternoon the cloud cover comes in thursday morning and to watch just how low temps can go. Wet bulb lower and things will be a bit rough. That and given nearly lowest sun angle of the year probably a decent chance for things to stick. Would also like to see the surface low depicted along the coast of Delaware/VA area rather than near the eastern shore or bay area. Solid 48 hours of shifting temps and surface lows. 13 hours in, still 2mb weaker than 18z and maybe 25 south.. might be some weenies in the Dakotas happy about that who are sitting on the fence of snow/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, JDClapper said: 13 hours in, still 2mb weaker than 18z and maybe 25 south.. might be some weenies in the Dakotas happy about that who are sitting on the fence of snow/rain. Once we get to 17z Tues though, strength and placement are nearly identical to 18z/12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: I can hear the excitement in your posts coming thru my phone. My wife asked "whats that sound?" I said "a nerd" We only get 1, maybe 2 of these storms a year here, so yep, a little excited. haha 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Oh boy.. looks like it's falling apart through 10am Thursday.. not so thumpy, swiss cheesy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Oh boy.. looks like it's falling apart through 10am Thursday.. not so thumpy, swiss cheesy. Consequently, we couldn't cool the column too well .. ending up a bummer run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Started the run with a weaker primary than previous runs, and ended up with a 5-6mb stronger primary in the arrowhead of MN and made a mess over our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Consequently, we couldn't cool the column too well .. ending up a bummer run so far. Junk run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, MDBlueridge said: Junk run Everything's loading so slow tonight. Looks like RDRS didn't go completely off the rails, but did shave the totals a little from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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