December 15-17, 2022 | Winter Storm

[Brodozer1]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Cannot get that air to saturate fast enough.  It's ok at the surface, but just getting eaten up at 700mb

this one is toast for me 

[StretchCT]

11 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Cannot get that air to saturate fast enough.  It's ok at the surface, but just getting eaten up at 700mb

This was the sounding down on the Island from this morning.  There was a lot of work to do. 

Compared to IAD.  Odd there's no KALY to compare with.

[JDClapper]

Light snow, measured 1" still compaction for sure.

Maybe this gets us a quick inch or two after 4pm, but.. yeah.

 

Oh yeah, 34 degrees. Blah.

[StretchCT]

I'm thinking the problem with the GFS v NAM v EURO/Ukie/GEM/RGEM might be the output based on ground temp.  Skews for 6z overnight are in the spoiler.  Oddly GFS is the warmest at the surface.  All look to be crossing 0 around 925mb, but GFS is snow while the others are rain.  It's completely possible to snow with a ground temp of 37 too.  Currently sitting a 36 and they all are at 38, plus we'll get some evaporational cooling probably down to 33-34.  This is what makes the forecast challenging.  For my immediate area, the column is actually below freezing, so what comes down may still be flakes, but will just melt.  The GFS might be counting that in accumulation, while the others aren't?

Spoiler

Edited December 15, 2022 by StretchCT

[TheRex]

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

Yep, so far those heavier returns are zzz.. must be sleet again. I havent gone out the check. Bummer.

Was your NWS forecast bullish on ice or did they think it would be mostly snow?  I may need to do some prep work if ice is a possibility up this way.

[TheComet]

1 hour ago, Rickrd said:

NAM was wrong. Had nothing here but some initial. Gfs was right this far

Same for me. Only a brief period of a few seconds of ice pellets mixed in at the onset. Otherwise all snow, moderate to heavy. I estimate 3 - 4" right now, and more to come. Higher totals will verify. NAM did horribly with the temp profiles, at least where I live.

[mikeysed]

8 minutes ago, TheComet said:

Same for me. Only a brief period of a few seconds of ice pellets mixed in at the onset. Otherwise all snow, moderate to heavy. I estimate 3 - 4" right now, and more to come. Higher totals will verify. NAM did horribly with the temp profiles, at least where I live.

Fill out your profile and put your location. Where are you located?

[morgdotz]

Just checked Waze and the turnpike has an accident, all the highways are standstill traffic... yet again they were not prepared. 😶

[JDClapper]

26 minutes ago, TheRex said:

Was your NWS forecast bullish on ice or did they think it would be mostly snow?  I may need to do some prep work if ice is a possibility up this way.

For my immediate area, very little ice forecasted, which verified. It was a giant sleetfest all morning tho, which could make their gametime snow update to 6-8 bust. 

Very nice looking blob incoming in the next 30-45 mins.. if that can lay down in a hurry, we might salvage an event here. But probably will be under 5".. shall see.

[TheRex]

14 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

For my immediate area, very little ice forecasted, which verified. It was a giant sleetfest all morning tho, which could make their gametime snow update to 6-8 bust. 

Very nice looking blob incoming in the next 30-45 mins.. if that can lay down in a hurry, we might salvage an event here. But probably will be under 5".. shall see.

With a sleet base and 5" of snow on top, it should give you a shot of holding the snow to give you a for the much coveted White Christmas.  I hope you get dumped on.

[Penn State]

55 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Light snow, measured 1" still compaction for sure.

Maybe this gets us a quick inch or two after 4pm, but.. yeah.

 

Oh yeah, 34 degrees. Blah.

This little burst actually came down as snow even in Franklin County. We got a quick 1/2” of paste. 

[JDClapper]

8 minutes ago, Penn State said:

This little burst actually came down as snow even in Franklin County. We got a quick 1/2” of paste. 

Eagerly awaiting its arrival, bc when its light precip, its mostly rain here. 

[MDBlueridge]

Just carnage. Power out everywhere. 

I looked at my wife and said we choose to live here. 

[Bradjl2009]

9 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Eagerly awaiting its arrival, bc when its light precip, its mostly rain here. 

Anything more than an inch now? According to the 12z nam, you should have had a little over 4 inches at 5:00 p.m. that seems unlikely, but just curious if things have been any better the last hour since 3

[JDClapper]

4 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

Just carnage. Power out everywhere. 

I looked at my wife and said we choose to live here. 

That is insane man.

[JDClapper]

3 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said:

Anything more than an inch now? According to the 12z nam, you should have had a little over 4 inches at 5:00 p.m. that seems unlikely, but just curious if things have been any better the last hour since 3

I cleared the board and had 1.5" of sleet topped with slop. The next blob is incoming and snow is mixing back in. Pretty sure its now or never with this blob. Mesos look meh overnight, and not counting and a wrap arou d band tomorrow morning to deliver much.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Moderate to heavy snow with almost an inch roads are already shot and plows are out. Expecting 12"+ IMBY. 3-6" ISH in valley around me

[Rush]

7 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

Just carnage. Power out everywhere. 

I looked at my wife and said we choose to live here. 

I want to move up there.

[JDClapper]

Its white out, at least.

[StretchCT]

9 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

Just carnage. Power out everywhere. 

I looked at my wife and said we choose to live here. 

Generator?

[Bradjl2009]

2 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

I cleared the board and had 1.5" of sleet topped with slop. The next blob is incoming and snow is mixing back in. Pretty sure its now or never with this blob. Mesos look meh overnight, and not counting and a wrap arou d band tomorrow morning to deliver much.

I would happily take an inch and a half of shop the way this December has gone so far in my neck of the woods lol. I think you should get at least at 3 inches, more than five will definitely be unlikely looking at the radar. The surface temperatures are a killer to getting much snow accumulation, especially during the day.

[WeatherFlash]

54 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

For my immediate area, very little ice forecasted, which verified. It was a giant sleetfest all morning tho, which could make their gametime snow update to 6-8 bust. 

Very nice looking blob incoming in the next 30-45 mins.. if that can lay down in a hurry, we might salvage an event here. But probably will be under 5".. shall see.

Blon came in as rain for me. I think my event is over but hoping for snow your way.

[Bradjl2009]

1 minute ago, WeatherFlash said:

Blon came in as rain for me. I think my event is over but hoping for snow your way.

I guess this is one winter storm Pittsburgh doesn't have to be that jealous about missing out on compared to most of the rest of PA lol

[JDClapper]

6 minutes ago, WeatherFlash said:

Blon came in as rain for me. I think my event is over but hoping for snow your way.

Its snow, and steady.. but curious how much will accum at 34. 🤷‍♂️

[StretchCT]

Members, if you're newly signed up, please say hi.  We don't bite.  Well MD might... but he's got other problems right now.