December 15-17, 2022 | Winter Storm

[JDClapper]

Appears State College made the flip too.. so I guess this is show time for the next several area back this way.

[WeatherFlash]

3 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Appears State College made the flip too.. so I guess this is show time for the next several area back this way.

Nice!! Congrats. Still rain with occasional flake/pellet here. We may make a brief changover eventually for 1-2 inches if I'm lucky. 

[mikeysed]

Dusting in southern Morris County so far. sleet and snow mix

[MDBlueridge]

Its very bad here. Trees down everywhere. 30F. No power. 

[RobB]

1 minute ago, MDBlueridge said:

Its very bad here. Trees down everywhere. 30F. No power. 

Uggh...

[JDClapper]

Recent CTP discussion update...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Radar shows a large shield of precip covering the entire CWA at

1630Z.

 

In our recent chat to WPC and surrounding WFOs we conveyed our

concern and assessment that bulk of the model guidance

dynamically/evap cooled a deep low to mid layer of the

atmosphere a deg or two C too much (so far ), and we`re left

with more freezing precip than originally anticipated.

 

With a highly anomalous (2.5-3 sigma) V-comp of the SSE 850 mb

winds over us through the afternoon, it appears that we`re going

to hold onto FZRA with some PL much longer.

 

We recently trimmed snow totals down 1-2 inches across the

Central Mtns and Wrn Poconos (considering that we lost perhaps

1-2 hours of nearly 1 inch/hour snowfall rates).

 

For the Mtns NE of KIP, still banking on enough deep layer

cooling with the intensification of the Delmarva low and

backing LLVL winds to target that area with periods of heavy

snow tonight.

 

WSR 88D CCs were quite uniform at 0.99 below 4-5 kft agl, but

we`ve seen a steady trend over the past 30 minutes to some

lower CC values within that radius of approx 30 NM, so this is

likely signaling the layer cooling the models are showing and a

transition to some gloppy big snowflakes and sleet mixing back

in shortly.

 

Some minor changes made otherwise to the previous forecast

package and gridded data in the areas of temps and P-type.

[StretchCT]

Some temps at different levels and the surface wet bulb

[StretchCT]

700mb frontogenesis

[Lazman]

38 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Wow, that beats a t-rex

Hey now.....

[JDClapper]

See if these heavy bursts can get us a couple inches, otherwise, I think we're in snow bust territory soon... not really doing much the past 30 mins out there.

[WeatherFlash]

I'd have to give it to nam/somewhat euro here...nailed the warm temps as opposed to gfs. Still rain with a mix-ish. Not sure we'll hit the 3-6 inch nws forecast unless there is a epic heavy band of snow later

[JDClapper]

6 minutes ago, WeatherFlash said:

I'd have to give it to nam/somewhat euro here...nailed the warm temps as opposed to gfs. Still rain with a mix-ish. Not sure we'll hit the 3-6 inch nws forecast unless there is a epic heavy band of snow later

Yep, so far those heavier returns are zzz.. must be sleet again. I havent gone out the check. Bummer.

[Ric_Roody]

Just flipped to snow here after prolonged sleet/freezing rain in western Schuylkill County, PA. Snowing at a pretty good rate, the changeover took longer than I thought. Hoping it holds for a bit, we are forecasted around 2-5 inches here so we may make it at this rate.

[Lazman]

Waiting on some flakes.....

[TheComet]

Snowing to beat the band, 1.5”, 28F

[Rickrd]

Game on. NAZARETH,PA bushkill twsp, has flipped to moderate snow. No more sleet. 1.5” on ground. You can hear plows in background. 
so much for your forecast 69 news. Nice rainstorm!

Edited December 15, 2022 by Rickrd

[morgdotz]

2 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Game on. NAZARETH,PA bushkill twsp, has flipped to moderate snow. No more sleet. 1.5” on ground. You can hear plows in background. 
so much for your forecast 69 news. Nice rainstorm!

 

Same here in Emmaus - steady snow now. 

[Orlando Eversharp]

First Snow Flakes In Warwick, NY. No precipitation until just now...

 

[Rickrd]

NAM was wrong. Had nothing here but some initial. Gfs was right this far

[Brodozer1]

first nor'easter and its rain for me  

[GregRups]

Snowing in Ramsey NJ 

[WeatherFlash]

Snowing for the first time today. (danville pa)

[telejunkie]

Just sitting on the bench, waiting for my turn at the plate. Cloudy and 35F out there....

[StretchCT]

Cannot get that air to saturate fast enough.  It's ok at the surface, but just getting eaten up at 700mb

[Brodozer1]

up to 37 now not expecting anything but rain, bench warmer for this game need a cushion for my ass sitting this one out  

Edited December 15, 2022 by Doser1