Admin MaineJay Posted December 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Yikes. Don't like seeing that as we are so close to the event. Hopefully, it falls so fast it can't accrete efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Clearly going to be now casting this one, esp at elevations. Might have some ugly ice areas with power outages 🤢. Too much warmth getting sucked in. Hopefully heavier precip rates stay snow for some but like MJ said heavy wet snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morgdotz Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 WWA issued for us here: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 Berks-Lehigh-Northampton- Including the cities of Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton 316 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Berks, Lehigh and Northampton. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will move in to the area from west to east Thursday morning. This is expected to last several hours before an eventual change to rain occurs from south to north by the late afternoon into the evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 BTV has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of their coverage area. They do mention the chance of power outages due to the heavy wet snow. We have light snow falling this morning even though it isn't in the forecast. We had a squall line move through last night that dumped about a 1/2" of snow in about 15 minutes. I hope this type of weather Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 233 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 NYZ026>029-035-087-VTZ001>003-005-009-011-016-017-021-142200- /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0007.221216T0300Z-221217T1500Z/ Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence- Grand Isle-Western Franklin-Orleans-Western Chittenden- Western Addison-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin- Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Windsor- Including the cities of Massena, Norfolk, Fort Covington, Malone, Champlain, Plattsburgh, South Colton, Star Lake, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur, Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Swanton, Derby, Newport, Burlington, Shelburne, Middlebury, Vergennes, Fair Haven, Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Springfield, and White River Junction 233 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern New York and Vermont, as well as the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River Valley. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Power outages are possible due to heavy wet snow. Travel could be very difficult for both the Friday morning and Friday evening commutes due to heavy snowfall and poor visibilities. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will develop overnight Thursday and could become heavy at times on Friday morning and could mix with rain on Friday afternoon, before tapering off to snow showers by Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 This map from BTV is through 7 am on Saturday. Some of these areas will still be getting snow at that time. Quote 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I canceled my Lake Placid trip last weekend because they had 0 snow on the ground. Good thing I didn't choose this weekend I wouldn't be able to get up there Friday with the storm. Going mid week of Christmas and New Years, should be pretty white for most of the trip up now with this storm and way things are looking over the next 2 weeks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) The age-old joys of getting NAM'ed.... @jbrumberg in the bullseye Edited December 14, 2022 by telejunkie 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 14, 2022 What a weird precip shield being modeled in the hires FV3 as it moves into northern NY and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 FV3 keeping it colder but looks to be chasing convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 27 minutes ago, Momtomany said: Of course my one daughter has her drivers exam scheduled for tomorrow morning at 8:00am right smack dab in the middle of an ice storm. ugh! That should make a good story when she is old, "back in my day, we had to take our driving test on ice , downhill both ways". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, MaineJay said: What a weird precip shield being modeled in the hires FV3 as it moves into northern NY and New England. This would have been beautiful for many if we just had a little more of cold air dome. The depth of the cold is the shame surface not matching aloft. Lets keep building the snow pack and introducing a little more cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 HRRR is rather chilly. This would be borderline heavy snow or rain Nice omega in the DGZ virtually at freezing or just below through much of the layer until about 925mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: HRRR is rather chilly. This would be borderline heavy snow or rain Nice omega in the DGZ virtually at freezing or just below through much of the layer until about 925mb. The 3km NAM and a big reason why it is much warmer it keeps the high omega values lower in the atmosphere. Much more impressive WAA at the 850-700mb level versus 700-500 on the HRRR. This is for the same timestamp. EDIT: to add GFS model skew T almost similar in omega like HRRR but similar approach in temp profile like 3km. Edited December 14, 2022 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 36 minutes ago, telejunkie said: The age-old joys of getting NAM'ed.... @jbrumberg in the bullseye Here's the snow depth change map from the 12Z NAM. With the possibility of heavy wet snow, I think this map may be the realistic snow map for the area. I'd love for the NAM snowfall map be what I get though. Quote 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) 12Z GFS comes in colder and snow line shifts south a bit. So night and day NAM vs GFS. Edited December 14, 2022 by Rickrd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rickrd said: 12Z GFS comes in colder and snow line shifts south a bit. So night and day NAM vs GFS. Ugh, my emotional roller coaster continues right to the very end LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morgdotz Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, TheComet said: Ugh, my emotional roller coaster continues right to the very end LOL Same here - just bumped us from little less than an inch to 5 inches... this will be fun to see how it plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) And things are different with these storms why? Edited December 14, 2022 by Rickrd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 12Z GFS Total for storm. I was premature on post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 GFS/FV3 say cold air winds aloft, NAM says no way guys sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 12Z GFS Northeast shot 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, TLChip said: GFS/FV3 say cold air winds aloft, NAM says no way guys sorry In my experience observing NAM in the past, it can have a tendency to erode cold from the mid layers too quick. It's not like this is April or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rickrd said: 12Z GFS Northeast shot GFS caved for me. Finally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, mikeysed said: I canceled my Lake Placid trip last weekend because they had 0 snow on the ground. Good thing I didn't choose this weekend I wouldn't be able to get up there Friday with the storm. Going mid week of Christmas and New Years, should be pretty white for most of the trip up now with this storm and way things are looking over the next 2 weeks! 4+4 will get you there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 14, 2022 GFS moved most of the snow out of my area, NWS moved some in. Fair trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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