Iceresistance Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: That explains why the PDS warning was issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Neoncyclone said: Wow, you'd never guess based off of radar, look at that horizontal vortice holy. Incredible. Haven't seen something like that in a very long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 In this case you have to keep in mind what the radar beam is trying to deal with. Especially a few scans ago, it was being obliterated by heavy rain so the storm looks really anemic. Unless this cell collapsed, we should see the cell re-emerge as it passes the radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: In this case you have to keep in mind what the radar beam is trying to deal with. Especially a few scans ago, it was being obliterated by heavy rain so the storm looks really anemic. Unless this cell collapsed, we should see the cell re-emerge as it passes the radar. Yeah as it passed the radar I knew we wouldn't be able to see much, I should've specified that I saw nothing that would suggest tornado-genesis as it approached radar when you would think we'd see ramping up velocities, just goes to show that they're dropping quick and unexpectedly today! Edited December 13, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Vince is within a mile of the rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 Back when it was southwest of Shreveport. Not current 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The Mesocyclone over Shreveport looks to be really low to the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) Just now, Iceresistance said: The Mesocyclone over Shreveport looks to be really low to the ground Shreveport warning dropped for now Edited December 13, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) Scanner report from Caddo-Parish, homes completely swept away....... Edited December 13, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 Watching anything that comes from SW LA. Especially that "squall" NW of Lake Charles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) Mid-level WV does a pretty good job at showing some of the struggles that the southern cells have been facing. Updrafts will continue to weakly strengthen as long as that dry air continues to sneak through SE TX. It'll be something to keep an eye on. Looks like the rest of the enhanced risk is clear of the dry air entrainment, at least for now. I work a 4am-12pm tomorrow so I'm gonna miss quite a bit of this evening's event. Edited December 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralLA_Wx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: @CentralLA_WxThere are Supercells that are hooking to your SW! Haven't had much locally this afternoon, but watching some cells to my south that look to be heading my way. Edited December 13, 2022 by CentralLA_Wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted December 13, 2022 29 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Watching anything that comes from SW LA. Especially that "squall" NW of Lake Charles The aforementioned "squall" (line segment would've been more appropriate) is starting to look more supercellular at least on reflectivity. We'll see if it can win the battle against dry air. A couple other cells are trying to get going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Healthy mini-supercell near Forest Hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Hearing the potential for a moderate risk increase tomorrow from some trusted sources, hearing they probably won't decide until 13z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 Warm sector is doing well. Updrafts continue to struggle though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) Renewed action should come later this evening with cells that already exist, per SPC. After I'm asleep probably Mesoscale Discussion 2022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Areas affected...Central Louisiana and far southwest Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 583... Valid 140106Z - 140300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for supercells and a few tornadoes is expected to continue across WW583 through the next couple of hours. Additional development/intensification across central and southern LA is expected later this evening. DISCUSSION...Across WW583, persistent showers and thunderstorms have displayed intermittent rotation and brief organization over the last several hours. The environment remains favorable for supercells with upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints supporting 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. In addition, strong 0-1 km bulk shear in excess of 30 kt evident on SPC mesoanalysis is supportive of low-level mesocyclones with a risk for tornadoes with the more established storms. While so far organization within the warm advection confluence bands farther east has been limited, stronger forcing for ascent is expected to arrive from the west in the next couple of hours beneath a 40-50 kt low-level jet. Recent HRRR runs suggest additional warm sector development/intensification is possible across mainly the eastern half of WW583 this evening. With strong shear and sufficient buoyancy forecast to persist after dark, the risk for supercells and a few tornadoes is expected to continue. Edited December 14, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Renewed action should come later this evening with cells that already exist, per SPC. After I'm asleep probably Mesoscale Discussion 2022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Areas affected...Central Louisiana and far southwest Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 583... Valid 140106Z - 140300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for supercells and a few tornadoes is expected to continue across WW583 through the next couple of hours. Additional development/intensification across central and southern LA is expected later this evening. DISCUSSION...Across WW583, persistent showers and thunderstorms have displayed intermittent rotation and brief organization over the last several hours. The environment remains favorable for supercells with upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints supporting 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. In addition, strong 0-1 km bulk shear in excess of 30 kt evident on SPC mesoanalysis is supportive of low-level mesocyclones with a risk for tornadoes with the more established storms. While so far organization within the warm advection confluence bands farther east has been limited, stronger forcing for ascent is expected to arrive from the west in the next couple of hours beneath a 40-50 kt low-level jet. Recent HRRR runs suggest additional warm sector development/intensification is possible across mainly the eastern half of WW583 this evening. With strong shear and sufficient buoyancy forecast to persist after dark, the risk for supercells and a few tornadoes is expected to continue. I've had terrible insomnia the last couple days, so i'm sure i'll be posting gifs of CC drops if they happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) FFD burst just happened near the radar. (The brighter reds juxtaposed with greens near the radar site; surface divergence signature) Edited December 14, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: FFD burst just happened near the radar. (The brighter reds juxtaposed with greens near the radar site; surface divergence signature) Looks like we'll have a dominant supercell out of that once it eats up the smaller cells around it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 Finally meaningful rotation from that cell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 It never ceases to amaze me to see these large-scale systems "breathe" in and out of intensity, you'll go from full on outbreak, to a few hours of relative calm, and then straight back into outbreak mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 Yay!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Confirmed near Farmerville LA. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Shreveport LA 829 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 LAC111-140300- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0106.000000T0000Z-221214T0300Z/ Union LA- 829 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION PARISH... At 828 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located 2 miles north of Farmerville, or 18 miles southwest of Huttig, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Union Parish, including the following locations... Haile, Linville and Marion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 That confirmed warning just updated saying mobile homes destroyed in Farmerville. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Shreveport LA 848 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 LAC111-140300- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0106.000000T0000Z-221214T0300Z/ Union LA- 848 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION PARISH... At 847 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles south of Huttig, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Numerous reports of trees and power lines downed with some mobile homes destroyed have been received near Farmerville with this storm. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Marion, Haile and Linville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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