Poco Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) Really been a nice look to the wave train in east Asia as well. See ample correlative north Atlantic ridging becoming involved. The period coming up isn’t something I necessarily want (I’m old and winter just isn’t quite for me as much anymore) but I’ll for sure be watching the evolution. Cheers to everyone. Hope you had and will have a happy holidays. Edited December 4, 2022 by Poco 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 8 hours ago, JDClapper said: 0z ups the chances to like 25-40%. Still in that 25-33% region for a chance of some white in interior PA. 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted December 4, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 4, 2022 @MDBlueridge👀👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 9 hours ago, JDClapper said: Wpc latest, day 6. Chance of 0.25+ snow/sleet qpf Wpc update. Day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 4, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted December 4, 2022 GYX Most of the available operational models and ensemble solutions suggest that Canadian high pressure should bring some drier air down to end out the work week. Thereafter, there is very little in the way of ensemble consensus in regards to a system tracking across the Mid Atlantic region and potentially intensifying somewhere off the coast. Therefore, confidence levels for next weekend remains low. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Uscg Ast said: @MDBlueridge👀👀 No shortage of energy or blocking....and a little cold in time for the Christmas season? oh boy... Edited December 4, 2022 by MDBlueridge 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 5, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 5, 2022 Had a feeling this one would hold. High up north is in a great place to provide enough of a cold wedge to probably about northern VA. Decent WAA push of precip looks like this will potentially be the taste of the pattern to come. This would be perfect to get snow falling the day before we have santa stumble downtown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 5, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 5, 2022 Decent signal on EFI for this far out. May need to wait a day or so before it starts to pick up something snowy along the East Coast. The black contour over the Midwest for snow means that 10% of the EPS is forecasting a climatologically extreme event. The higher that number goes, the more extreme. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 5, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted December 5, 2022 There appears to be a casual relationship between the speed of the wave, and it's strength. The slower waves are weaker. This is less than 5 days out, yet there's a 600 mile difference between the slow UKie and fast GFS. The GFS also always most out-of-sync with the northern stream, retreating all energy northward, where the other models have a little closed low breaking off, and briefly meandering north of the crown of Maine.. Man, 5 days out in the modeling world feels like an eternity right now. The LR NAM, appeared to be even more bullish on that little closed low, providing a better cold source, but again LR NAM caveats apply. The storm still wants to exit the coastal region on a NW-SE trajectory, but still so much uncertainty in timing, and how much (if any) cold can be tapped, that it is difficult to know if we do get good cold-QPF overlap, and where. I am sticking with the elevated areas from the Poconos to northern VA as having the best shot. I'm not really looking closely at the follow up waves which are even more varied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 14 hours ago, JDClapper said: Wpc update. Day 6. Wpc overnight update. 0z EPS running away from the late week one. 10%ish chance of white in interior PA. (Was around 30% give or take for a few runs prior) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: Wpc overnight update. 0z EPS running away from the late week one. 10%ish chance of white in interior PA. (Was around 30% give or take for a few runs prior) Exactly what I was hoping would NOT happen. But expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 CMC kinda like the middle ground between gfs and euro, not bad for CPA. The following week I think will have a lot more chances for a lot more people. 0z CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 12z gfs just hangs the low off NJ for over a day once it finally transfers, with mainly cold rain and some interior/ elevation snows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 12z gfs just hangs the low off NJ for over a day once it finally transfers, with mainly cold rain and some interior/ elevation snows.... Euro a minor C-3 event for NW PA, CPA.. kinda fizzling out as it approaches. 🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: Euro a minor C-3 event for NW PA, CPA.. kinda fizzling out as it approaches. 🤷♂️ Yea it's starting to look like the first legit threat for widespread frozen will be Tues- Wed 13th, both on cmc and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 9 hours ago, JDClapper said: Wpc overnight update. 0z EPS running away from the late week one. 10%ish chance of white in interior PA. (Was around 30% give or take for a few runs prior) First dark greens showing up! Haha 12z eps looks like 20%ish chance of measureable white in CPA. Improved chances from 0z, but amounts are light (Under 2" for pretty much every member) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 34 minutes ago, JDClapper said: First dark greens showing up! Haha 12z eps looks like 20%ish chance of measureable white in CPA. Improved chances from 0z, but amounts are light (Under 2" for pretty much every member) @JDClapper can you make these maps any bigger when you post? I can't see them. I need them to be 20" x 60" thank you kindly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: @JDClapper can you make these maps any bigger when you post? I can't see them. I need them to be 20" x 60" thank you kindly Lol, they look fine on my cell phone. But sure, i can make them 20x60, just for you sugar cheeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Yeah it's looking like the chance of Friday night's event being anything more than wet snow in a few spots is not very good right now. Oh well, I'd rather get drizzle than yet another rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Bradjl2009 said: Yeah it's looking like the chance of Friday night's event being anything more than wet snow in a few spots is not very good right now. Oh well, I'd rather get drizzle than yet another rainstorm. Yep, this one is fizzling out. Guess I will go back to watching the battle between Cold/warm December posts in the LR thread. 😄 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 (edited) Maybe there will be a 30% chance of clouds with this one. 😅 Edited December 7, 2022 by JDClapper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted December 7, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 7, 2022 On 12/5/2022 at 4:15 PM, MDBlueridge said: @JDClapper can you make these maps any bigger when you post? I can't see them. I need them to be 20" x 60" thank you kindly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 7 hours ago, Uscg Ast said: Ugh "newer york". PA is kinda a shithole anymore but not even near thhevscale of New York lol.........so I shall take offense 😉 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 not expecting any white stuff this time frame for ct .another missed snow event will it make 3 so far in dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted December 7, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said: Ugh "newer york". PA is kinda a shithole anymore but not even near thhevscale of New York lol.........so I shall take offense 😉 Someone has to fix PA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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