November 29th-30th, 2022 | Severe Weather | Lengthy Dixie Alley Tornado Outbreak on the 29th

[ClicheVortex2014]

Fwiw, New Orleans sounding observed 61 dew point at 12z. 12z HRRR expected 58 degrees.

Edited November 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

31 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Fwiw, New Orleans sounding observed 61 dew point at 12z. 12z HRRR expected 58 degrees.

The Dew Point in Jackson, MS is 51°F, but the sounding is bad

 

In Lake Charles, the Dew Point is 70°F

[CentralLA_Wx]

Dewpoint of 64F here in Alexandria, LA. Could be a rough day for central LA. Highest risk may be a bit to my north/northeast. 

13z HRRR showing supercells across north LA in the afternoon with more developing over central LA in the evening hours. 

[Iceresistance]

Radar is picking up storms right now in Western Mississippi, it's just to the NW of the Moderate Risk.

[Hassaywx1223]

Just a few readings around the moderate risk 64-73 dew points in November not good 

[Iceresistance]

@ClicheVortex2014@Neoncyclone

Radar already has a couplet NNE of Leland, MS. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

@ClicheVortex2014@Neoncyclone

Radar already has a couplet NNE of Leland, MS. 

It would be an elevated storm, so it’s just showing a meso

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It would be an elevated storm, so it’s just showing a meso

That storm is now severe west of Grenada, MS (also west of I-55), it looks mean on radar.

[StormfanaticInd]

Regional outbreak expected today. Surface cape already 3000 in the south! This could get ugly 

Edited November 29, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY... Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are forecast this afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and parts of the Southeast. ...

REGIONAL OUTBREAK of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is forecast today and tonight for parts of the lower Mississippi Valley... ...Lower MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over much of the CONUS this morning, with several fast moving shortwave troughs moving across the southwest into the southern Plains. Strong southerly low-level winds have developed across the lower MS Valley, aiding in the rapid return of rich Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s have spread into much of east TX and LA, and should extend into central MS by mid-afternoon. Plentiful low clouds are present, limiting daytime heating. But relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and returning moisture will lead to widespread MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg later today, with only a weak cap. Vertical shear profiles are very strong throughout the region, with effective SRH values of 200-400 m2/s2 beneath 50+ knots of deep-layer shear. Given the subtle forcing today, relatively long-lived discrete supercell storms are expected with an attendant threat of intense and long-track tornadoes. Present indications are that primary thunderstorm development will begin early this afternoon over parts of LA, spreading quickly into MS. This corridor may see multiple waves of severe convection as storms redevelop upstream through the evening. Along with the strong tornado threat, very large hail and damaging wind gusts may occur with these storms. Consideration was made to introduce a small HIGH risk, but still too much uncertainty in the exact corridor of highest risk since moisture is not yet in place and there is no surface boundary to focus on.

Edited November 29, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[Iceresistance]

There is an unwarned cell NW of Natchez, MS (in Louisiana) that is trying to form a hook.

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY... Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are forecast this afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and parts of the Southeast. ...

REGIONAL OUTBREAK of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is forecast today and tonight for parts of the lower Mississippi Valley... ...Lower MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over much of the CONUS this morning, with several fast moving shortwave troughs moving across the southwest into the southern Plains. Strong southerly low-level winds have developed across the lower MS Valley, aiding in the rapid return of rich Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s have spread into much of east TX and LA, and should extend into central MS by mid-afternoon. Plentiful low clouds are present, limiting daytime heating. But relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and returning moisture will lead to widespread MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg later today, with only a weak cap. Vertical shear profiles are very strong throughout the region, with effective SRH values of 200-400 m2/s2 beneath 50+ knots of deep-layer shear. Given the subtle forcing today, relatively long-lived discrete supercell storms are expected with an attendant threat of intense and long-track tornadoes. Present indications are that primary thunderstorm development will begin early this afternoon over parts of LA, spreading quickly into MS. This corridor may see multiple waves of severe convection as storms redevelop upstream through the evening. Along with the strong tornado threat, very large hail and damaging wind gusts may occur with these storms. Consideration was made to introduce a small HIGH risk, but still too much uncertainty in the exact corridor of highest risk since moisture is not yet in place and there is no surface boundary to focus on.

Into NW Alabama just as I feared it would happen

Edited November 29, 2022 by Iceresistance

[StormfanaticInd]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

Into NW Alabama just as I feared it would happen

They are considering a high risk. Yikes

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

They are considering a high risk. Yikes

If that is the case, it's very likely going to be in Central to Northern and Eastern Mississippi!

[Iceresistance]

 

 

[Iceresistance]

there is a storm NW of West Point, MS that is hooking.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Watching that cell in NE LA. Looks like it’s in the warm sector.

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Watching that cell in NE LA. Looks like it’s in the warm sector.

So am I, but there are two that are hooking in NE Mississippi, one WNW of West Point, MS and the other west of Tupelo, MS

Top is the Tupelo storm, bottom is closer to West Point, MS

[Sentinel]

Oof. That is one angry atmosphere today. 

 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

So am I, but there are two that are hooking in NE Mississippi, one WNW of West Point, MS and the other west of Tupelo, MS

Top is the Tupelo storm, bottom is closer to West Point, MS

Storm on the bottom is now severe

[Hassaywx1223]

Wow this started quickly and got scary fast today by Spc 

[ClicheVortex2014]

PDS watch incoming

[Iceresistance]

@CentralLA_Wx needs to be absolutely prepared for this!

[StormfanaticInd]

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1978 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 Areas affected...northern LA...extreme southeast Arkansas and into central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 291720Z - 291945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A PDS tornado watch will be needed by 19z/1pm CT for portions of northern Louisiana, extreme southeast Arkansas and into central Mississippi. Tornadoes, a couple potentially long-track and strong, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible into the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Rich Gulf boundary-layer moisture continues to rapidly return northward across the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Surface dewpoints near 65 F have developed as far north as south-central MS and northern LA late this morning. Meanwhile, the marine warm front, roughly delineating 70 F dewpoints, extends west-to east from southeast TX through central LA into southern MS. Moisture should continue to rapidly increase across northern LA into far southeast AR and MS through the afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to overspread the region, aiding in MLCAPE increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon. Breaks in cloud cover across northeast LA into central MS will further aid in destabilization as greater heating occurs within these cloud breaks. Strong vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 45 kt is already in place across the region. Regional VWPs and profilers already show enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 250 m2/s. Large-scale ascent will remain modest across the region, resulting in a large warm sector supporting discrete supercells. One or more bands of supercells will be possible within low-level confluence zones. A particular dangerous situation is expected to develop across northeast LA into central MS through this evening as multiple supercells track across the area. Tornadoes, a couple strong and long-track, will be possible, in addition to large hail (scattered 2+ inch) and damaging gusts.