Admin MaineJay Posted November 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: What would be best case for the gfs on the 500s? I think we need that lead wave in southern Quebec to lay down some cold, then the closed low to get to the coast and crank a surface low a quickly and deeply as possible. It's kind of an all or nothing affair I fear. To get widespread snow, it would have to be a beast, otherwise, probably mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 20, 2022 Ick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 (edited) Gfs looks horrible. Edited November 20, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 21, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 21, 2022 GYX LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The overall upper air pattern is expected to amplify a bit later this week into the weekend, although a potentially impactful late- week system is still proving quite difficult to pin down with a significant spread in model solutions. Thus while moderate to high confidence in the forecast exists through the middle of the week... that quickly drops off late in the week with solutions ranging from yet-another-clipper to a big coastal storm with a wallop of warm, moist air... and anything in between. Of note, the GFS/GEFS continue to be wildly different from the ECMWF/EPS and CMC/GEPS Starting Tuesday... flow aloft flattens out somewhat in the upper levels, which allows high pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic to spread northward into our area. A modest southwesterly return flow develops as a result, with a warmer day under mostly sunny skies in the 30s to mid-40s... except perhaps lagging back in the 20s in the western Maine Mountains where the return flow doesn`t quite reach. The PGF between low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure to our south doesn`t relax enough to go all-in on strong radiational cooling for Tuesday night, especially toward the north amid modest pressure falls... so have stuck with the multi-model blend for the most part, except to blend in slightly cooler temps in the sheltered valleys... bringing lows into the teens and 20s, near 30 at the immediate coast. A broad upper level trough centered over northern Quebec / Newfoundland swings an axis across Wednesday with little fanfare for New England, other than snow shower potential in the higher terrain near the international border but also spreading down through the Whites and Blues through the day as a cold front sinks south and allows for some low/mid- level moisture convergence. Confidence in the overall pattern drops off precipitously Thursday through the end of the forecast with large disparities in the major model suites. Of note... there is considerable difference in the handling of a longwave trough as it exits the Rockies Thursday into Friday. Euro and Canadian suites have held this long wave together... painting an amplified pattern across the eastern CONUS through the end of the week and weekend with a big coastal developing. Meanwhile the American has cut off low pressure in the southern Plains or southern Rockies with a far less amplified, clipper-type low pushing across in recent runs... although the latest 12Z deterministic GFS has trended slightly toward keeping the trough together with a more amplified pattern. Though, even the more amplified cluster of solutions have their own gamut of potential scenarios with differences in trough orientation as it reaches the coast, which has big implications for what sort of mid-level jet and associated temperatures/forcing we`ll have to work with. All this to say... while precipitation is likely Friday and Saturday, the details beyond that remain quite uncertain besides a higher likelihood of frozen precipitation in the mountains, as usual. Thursday, while very much reliant on how strongly upper level ridging builds in and reinforces Canadian high pressure at the surface (stronger in a more amplified solution)... is not expected to be impactful, except when considering the antecedent airmass and strength of the CAD should a coastal low come to fruition. Otherwise it will likely be cooler than Wednesday with a greater northerly component to flow. Some signals we`ll be looking for in the coming days, assuming a more amplified pattern comes together like cluster analysis and a majority of members suggest: configuration and orientation of the upper-level trough and associated jets, which will drive about every other ingredient and dictate the track of the storm; amplitude and orientation of the mid-level circulation and jet, which would rely heavily on the upper-level dynamics and drive mesoscale precipitation processes along with ptype; and strength of antecedent CAD through the low- and mid-levels, which would also inform ptype (stronger CAD = more frozen precip) and determine if this storm takes on classic Nor`easter characteristics. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 21, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 21, 2022 Lol Last 8 GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 21, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 21, 2022 EPS had about 30% of members with accumulating snow in previous runs, but the 21/0z bailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 21, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 21, 2022 Stretched the dates back out to the 28th in the event a "sloth-like" solution like the GFS now shows, materializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 21, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 21, 2022 Not what you want to see in the AFD .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Confidence beyond Thanksgiving Day has diminished from previous forecasts, as deterministic models and their ensembles are diverging from what had been earlier general agreement during this time. GFS/Canadian are both slower to amplify the ridge in the western US, which allows a northern stream shortwave trough crossing the NW states on Wed to dig much farther south/west toward the southern Rockies/Plains and significantly lag behind the behind the more progressive ECMWF, with only a frontal passage on Fri via a northern stream shortwave trough passing to the north, and the more significant rainfall from a srn stream low to arrive Sunday night. Sticking with the more consistent NBM for now since all guidance at least has potential for rain Fri/Fri night, whether from a secondary coastal low per ECMWF or a passing frontal sys a la the GFS/Canadian. Confidence is higher that temps should return to near to slightly above normal during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 21, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 21, 2022 Don't get me wrong, as less snow makes my life "easier". But this, this is a waste. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: Don't get me wrong, as less snow makes my life "easier". But this, this is a waste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 And the chaos already begins lol gotta love it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Gfs diving in that northern vort much quicker than last run. Will still be far too late for places south of Ny/pa border, but NNE needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 22, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 22, 2022 32 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Gfs diving in that northern vort much quicker than last run. Will still be far too late for places south of Ny/pa border, but NNE needs to be watched. Gonna be tough to overcome the large warm sector. We don't do great with crashing 850s up here, generally cuts off the precip. Still worth watching, if for no other reason than the lack of consistency with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: Gonna be tough to overcome the large warm sector. We don't do great with crashing 850s up here, generally cuts off the precip. Still worth watching, if for no other reason than the lack of consistency with the models. Yea that’s true. Maybe far interior NNE near st Lawrence etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted November 23, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 23, 2022 I saw this AccuWeather graphic on my news feed showing a wisp of snow across northern Maine… Me: 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 20 hours ago, Mainiac said: I saw this AccuWeather graphic on my news feed showing a wisp of snow across northern Maine… Me: Even with this -nao it’s going to be tough to get anything significant with such a raging -PNA. I’m a firm believer that the pac significantly dictates our weather Moreso than anything else 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 23, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 23, 2022 Lat 6 days of GFS runs. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 23, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said: Even with this -nao it’s going to be tough to get anything significant with such a raging -PNA. I’m a firm believer that the pac significantly dictates our weather Moreso than anything else The EPO has been negative, at least enough to provide cold to the lower 48. It is largely dumping west and bleeding east, but it doesn't look like any huge, sustained torches. It does look like everything wants to shear out, as low centers want to run the St Lawrence, and leave us with more frontal type systems. Read, cold chasing the precip. Lots of shortwaves have been embedded in the flow, and the models have really struggled as of late. A week seems like an eternity, so while I'm not necessarily bullish on snow prospects, I also wouldn't rule out a low probability event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted November 24, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 24, 2022 5 hours ago, PA road DAWG said: Even with this -nao it’s going to be tough to get anything significant with such a raging -PNA. I’m a firm believer that the pac significantly dictates our weather Moreso than anything else 100%. EPO/PNA over NAO 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted November 25, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 25, 2022 Forecast calls for more than nothing, but nothing is definitely within the margin of error. I guess it's finally time to throw in the towel on this one. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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