Admin MaineJay Posted November 19, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 19, 2022 Quote Towards Friday and Saturday, the next storm system takes shape. Currently still a wide range of solutions for timing and positioning, but can at least feel a bit more confident in some features via ensembles. That is, confidence increases in a storm system within the region later next week...but details regarding precip type and intensity still need plenty of refinement. Amplifying ridge over the Pacific drives a upper jet across the Rocky Mtns with stacked trough dropping through the Plains. 500Mb trough probabilities in the GEFS have been increasing here, but still plenty of spread in regards to how amplified it is. If it manages to dip into the Southern Plains, interaction with southern stream jet will rapidly strengthen this jet with exit region over the Mid-Atlantic. This creates a scenario advertised by both GEFS and EPS of secondary development in the Mid-Atlantic before tracking northward. Operational GFS depicts a solution on the western envelop of the GEFS, while EPS is perhaps a touch east. In either case, means carry a 60-80kt jet at the mid levels just off the coast in amidst of the highest astro tides of the month. So, interior or coastal tracking storms should bear watching for splashover chances if ingredients line up around time of high tide. GYX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 0z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 19, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 0z eps I suspect a high degree of spread in there, also guessing there are some amped members. About 30% have snow up this way. For your location. https://weather.us/forecast/5113963-cragsmoor/ensemble/euro/snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 19, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 19, 2022 Like 5 shortwaves shown on the GFS dancing around in the trof. Ukie is the least phased. You can see the closed 552dm ULL pushing through the TX panhandle. Northern stream just cruising along, shearing out the mean trof. GFS is dropping a couple 537dm shortwaves into the, basically neutral, trof. EC seems to be pretty phased, albeit with slightly weaker northern stream energies. It's also swinging that base negative, but too soon for us. Canadian is the most "put together", but the trof axis is pretty far west to pull off the widespread storm idea, and while it's the strongest, it doesn't really "dig", perhaps because it's moving along fairly quickly. I'd love a to where one could blend the models. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 19, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 19, 2022 GFS looking ukie like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 19, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 19, 2022 Without the northern stream phasing in, the cold will be hard to find. Last 8. Not a ton of continuity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 19, 2022 GFS and Ukie v Euro and CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 GFS still not stable for the late week .. event? Past 48 hours of runs. 1pm Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 19, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, JDClapper said: GFS still not stable for the late week .. event? Past 48 hours of runs. 1pm Friday There low near Baja is there every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Hoe about Gefs past 48 hrs. 🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 20, 2022 Still EC/CMC vs GFS/ UK if the SW low hangs back, it gives them northern stream room to dig. GFS is trying to come around to the EC/CMC idea, but not quite there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 0z Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 This is so close to a snowstorm of some sort for areas away from the coast like the HV, Berkshire, and of course NE. 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Hrrmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 20, 2022 GFS holding the Baja trof back, northern stream should have more room, thinking this will be a better storm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 20, 2022 Still early season, so the cold is just a bit tougher to get entrenched. Probably need a fairly rapidly depending storm to add some dynamic cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 This might be something for people up north and with elevation. But we all know that frequently we can get repeats and patterns that recycle. Having this one recycle a few times this winter would be a lot of fun. To put it mildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 20, 2022 The changeover from hour 156 to 162 is impressive, would be a big concern for sticky, heavy snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 I'm about to throw the towel in on this for any real snow accumulation outside of Northern New England and the Adirondacks. I can't complain though; Tuesday's somewhat surprising snowfall and the occasional squalls that have happened since then have given me more then my average November snowfall. I just hope at some point this coming December will be more like December 2020 instead of last December or December 2014. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 It’s going to be a nice surprise for sone interior NNE areas but as mentioned there’s not enough entrenched cold for a snowy front end in SNE. It would need to have sone crazy dynamics to get the snow going below the NY/PA border the pattern at hand does feel ripe if timing and some throttling downstream were to come into play down the road from this threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Bradjl2009 said: I'm about to throw the towel in on this for any real snow accumulation outside of Northern New England and the Adirondacks. I can't complain though; Tuesday's somewhat surprising snowfall and the occasional squalls that have happened since then have given me more then my average November snowfall. I just hope at some point this coming December will be more like December 2020 instead of last December or December 2014. Indeed. EPS has been less than luke warm on accumulations in Central PA for quite some tine as well. Got spoiled by the early event, gotta come back down the earth. Anything November is bonus. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Bradjl2009 said: I'm about to throw the towel in on this for any real snow accumulation outside of Northern New England and the Adirondacks. I can't complain though; Tuesday's somewhat surprising snowfall and the occasional squalls that have happened since then have given me more then my average November snowfall. I just hope at some point this coming December will be more like December 2020 instead of last December or December 2014. Indeed. EPS has been less than luke warm on accumulations in Central PA for quite some tine as well. Got spoiled by the early event, gotta come back down the earth. Anything November is bonus. 🙂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 20, 2022 Geez GFS make up your mind. So erratic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Just now, MaineJay said: Geez GFS make up your mind. So erratic. Looks much slower not sure the implications of that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: Geez GFS make up your mind. So erratic. What would be best case for the gfs on the 500s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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