JDClapper Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Wife just text and is annoyed at the grocery store. "Omg, everyone is here". I want to say people are preparing for next Thursday... but, we all know better. 🤦♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hobie Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Ahhh...you fine folks make winter bearable. Here we go again! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 14, 2022 4 hours ago, Hiramite said: I emailed the SPC a few days ago asking about them. I'll post any response here. 4 hours ago, JDClapper said: Its back online! NOW we can get answers re: this threat! Finally. 🙂 3 hours ago, Ingyball said: SPC was notified of it this weekend and will try to get it fixed. Will hopefully be back today Edit: looks like we got one run yesterday then nada lol Looks like things back working and updating with the SREF’s. As Ingyball indicated, they were a day off earlier this AM. They did reply back around noon… The SREF Plumes page has been restored. Sorry for the inconvenience. Jay Liang Storm Prediction Center 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 14, 2022 (edited) This is pretty darn close. On the other hand... NWS with the HWO for northern nyc burbs Spoiler CTZ005>007-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-151100- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 339 AM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeastern New Jersey and southeastern New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A quick moving low pressure system moving across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring the potential for a light accumulation of snow and freezing rain Tuesday Night. The highest probability of accumulation is across Orange County. Precipitation should change to plain rain by daybreak Wednesday, but before then locally hazardous driving conditions are possible for the early morning commute. edited to add the Euro, which is also very close. does the NAM bust on with the warm nose? Edited November 14, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 14, 2022 (edited) Count it! Edited November 14, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 43 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Count it! Just enough to cause some accidents because some people seem to forget how to drive in snow. Stopping distances are longer in the snow, not shorter, even if you are driving a 4x4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 14, 2022 (edited) Broader view - I'm not sold on the extent of it in CT though. Edited November 14, 2022 by StretchCT 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted November 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 14, 2022 Things are getting spicy! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 14, 2022 55 minutes ago, TheRex said: Just enough to cause some accidents because some people seem to forget how to drive in snow. Stopping distances are longer in the snow, not shorter, even if you are driving a 4x4. That first slushy inch or two of the season can really be problematic, in addition to your points, there's no residual salt from previous storms, so it tends to get "greasy" I find. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 14, 2022 (edited) Albany out with Hudson Valley and Litchfield advisories. Upton with Orange County. Looks like all of BGM too. Advisory notes that areas *west* of I 84 might see higher accumulation Spoiler NYZ067-150945- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0016.221115T2200Z-221116T1200Z/ Orange- 333 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Orange County. Highest amounts west of I-84 and across some of the higher elevations. * WHEN...From 5 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. Edited November 14, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 14, 2022 There it is - first snow forecast for me! (kinda) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 52 minutes ago, Mainiac said: Things are getting spicy! You just got rid of your snowpack from last season a few days ago too, didnt you? 😅 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 14, 2022 Upton finally updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Pretty sweet little phase on this one....GFS shows it nicely. Baroclinicity baroclinicity baroclinicity there. that should awaken another poster... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 15, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 15, 2022 So.. It’s 27 in SCPA right now. I’m feeling good about my chances tomorrow for accumulating snow along the I-81 corridor. It might not be much.. but I’ll take it for November. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 What a way to kick off the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, JDClapper said: What a way to kick off the season. I love watching how that low just hugs the coast on its way from North Carolina to Maine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted November 15, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 15, 2022 35 minutes ago, TheRex said: I love watching how that low just hugs the coast on its way from North Carolina to Maine. So I'm going to be real selfish and uh... NO. 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted November 15, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 15, 2022 7 hours ago, Mainiac said: Things are getting spicy! Imagine that... Maine with snow. 😇 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 15, 2022 13 hours ago, MaineJay said: Hi-res FV3 is much more aggressive with the warm nose than the NAM3 This will be nice to see how well the FV3 will do. It managed fairly decent last year I can't knock the warm intrusion that is bound to flip many over to rain but there seems to be a nice little thump potential showing up in SCPA with cold just hanging on. Might have to up totals a little from 1-2 to maybe 2-3" across central PA. Overall though everything seems on track so far. Western PA still has enough of a warm tongue where they may end up with a coating or slightly above when all is said and done. Same with western NY. Central NY may also push 3-4" in spots especially with elevation. Still definitely a really close call for your area just depends if the cold can hold to allow the temps to crash. Precip intensity may be key up your way as the storm develops. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 15, 2022 8 hours ago, StretchCT said: Broader view - I'm not sold on the extent of it in CT though. Terrain will definitely help those areas. I am rather unfamiliar with how high terrain is for NW CT, Western Mass, and areas of Southern VT and NH. Being from southern PA doesn't help too much lol. Something ill have to look into in the future with these borderline events but areas around 1500' or more should do well before a warm push aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 15, 2022 Im hesitant on the idea but will be rather nice to see some flakes mixed in tomorrow evening. Should definitely be there out in York area maybe a coating in locations before I hit the wall going down 83 tomorrow evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 15, 2022 This is probably one of the best examples of a warm tongue that we tend to get quite often in portions of SCPA and SEPA. Whether its fall winter or spring this plagues us and shows just close we get sometimes to the fun. Wall is usually around Harrisburg to Hazelton. The Poconos can usually escape it but probably not so much this time. Its cool we need the rain anyway river is looking a little low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 7 hours ago, Penn State said: So.. It’s 27 in SCPA right now. I’m feeling good about my chances tomorrow for accumulating snow along the I-81 corridor. It might not be much.. but I’ll take it for November. Good chance of a surpise here. Kind of like after easter this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 (edited) Coldest night so far down to 17F*. Edited November 15, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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